LEBANON: A/S WELCH ASSURES CHRISTIAN LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000706

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: A/S WELCH ASSURES CHRISTIAN LEADERS


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Christian leaders of the pro-reform March 14 Movement
met on May 15 at the Ambassador's residence with NEA
Assistant Secretary David Welch. In what was the A/S's first
official meeting in Lebanon, the they expressed their hopes
for the quick establishment of the Special Tribunal and noted
that, is UNIIIC Commissioner Brammertz were to give names in
his report, their position approaching presidential elections
would be strengthened. On the presidency, they declared that
they were determined not to accept a compromise candidate.
They urged A/S Welch to underscore with Maronite Patriarch
Sfeir the need for engagement (Much of the meeting was
devoted to A/S Welch briefing them on the non-negotiable U.S.
support for Lebanon as well as regional developments.) End
summary.


2. (C) All of the March 14 major Christian constituencies
were represented except the Gemayel Kata'ib party (as A/S
Welch was scheduled for meet former President Amine Gemayel
the following day). March 14 participants included MPs Samir
Franjieh, Boutros Harb and George Adwan (Lebanese Forces),
Minister for Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad, former MPs Fares
Souaid and Nassib Lahoud (Democratic Renewal Party),Dory
Chamoun (National Liberal Party) and Carlos Edde (National
Bloc).

WANTED: AN ACTIVE PATRIARCH
--------------


3. (C) A/S Welch noted that he would meet immediately after
this meeting with Maronite Patriarch Sfeir and sought their
views of how best to encourage the Patriarch to play an
active political role in the upcoming period. Taking turns
in offering their views, the Christian leaders agreed that
Sfeir's public role can help ensure the election of the right
presidential candidate and avert a disaster in the coming
elections. March 14 leaders were in agreement that the
Patriarch can have great influence, but he needs to be
encouraged by the U.S. to speak boldly against a possible
second government appointed by President Emile Lahoud. The
leaders held slightly different opinions on whether the
Patriarch should endorse a list of candidate names or give a
list of names whose candidacies he would consider dangerous.
The leaders were unanimous and passionate in describing the
catastrophic outcome should the wrong candidate be elected.
Several called it the last chance for Lebanon,s democracy.
Edde explained that the cohesive front of the pro-democracy
groups could break down if they agree to a compromise
candidate. Mouawad described it as Syria and Tehran,s last
attempt to get a hold on Lebanon.

NO LIST OF NAMES NEEDED
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4. (C) Former MP Lahoud said A/S Welch should tell the
Patriarch to trust the March 14 leadership; therefore, there
is no need for the Patriarch to endorse a list of candidates.
Lebanese leaders who want a sovereign, new Lebanon and have a
desire to build the nation and the structures are known, and
those individuals should be considered. MP Franjieh was less
clear on &no compromise candidate8 and offered what he
termed a national compromise, but was unable to articulate
exactly what that meant. Franjieh said the Patriarch should
know that March 14 wants a national compromise but that still
means no opposition candidate.


5. (C) All said that the Patriarch should continue to speak
out on the quorum issue, in declaring that MPs of all parties
should attend a Parliamentary session to elect a President.
A/S Welch could strike home with the Patriarch by telling him
that his principles will prevail if he is bold. Tell the
Patriarch that he will not fail, Lahoud urged.

VATICAN ENVOY SHOULD BE INVISIBLE
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6. (C) As to why the Patriarch seems most reluctant to have
a Vatican envoy visit, the March 14 leaders' consensus was
that it would appear as if Sfeir,s boss had come to do
Sfeir,s job, and thereby weaken Sfeir in his people's eyes.
The Maronite church guards its autonomy from Rome, yet it is
very important that the Vatican show support. Instead of an

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envoy, the Papal Nuncio should play a more visible, active
role. His sphere of influence is with the bishops, monks,
nuns and the church.

TRIBUNAL A MUST, BRAMMERTZ REPORT
--------------


7. (C) A/S Welch said he was confident that there will be a
tribunal, and he senses that the opportunity is there. This
calmed March 14 leaders, who agreed that if the tribunal can
be established before the elections, the March 14 position
would be enhanced. Several leaders stated they would like to
see the next Brammertz report be more explicit, with names,
before the elections. If the July report is issued without
names and focused only on technical issues, that will weaken
March 14. If the "files are open," then the opposition would
be put in a very difficult situation.


8. (C) The March 14 Christians also expressed concern over
their physical safety and that of all politicians, saying a
report from Brammertz that included names would help balance
the terror. A/S Welch said that while we are not interfering
in the report, we understand that Brammertz is compiling the
report more from a perspective of a prosecutor than an
investigator. This assessment appeared to reassure the
leaders.

WHAT THE U.S. IS DOING WRONG
--------------


9. (C) More vocal than her colleagues, Mouawad said March 14
needed some victories, such as settling the issue of the
Sheba'a Farms, and a change along the porous border between
Syria and Lebanon. Such victories would help counter what
Mouawad described as bad images, such as Speaker Pelosi,s
visit to Syria. Mouawad underscored the importance of USG
assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces.


10. (U) A/S Welch did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
FELTMAN