LEBANON: HARIRI FEELS GOOD ABOUT FRENCH AND BAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000704

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA,
NEA/FO FOR ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI FEELS GOOD ABOUT FRENCH AND BAD
ABOUT SYRIANS


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a 5/15 meeting with A/S Welch, MP Saad Hariri
reported with satisfaction about the start of his
relationship with French President Sarkozy, which Hariri
interpreted as a promising sign of continued French support.
The Syrians, however, continue to worry Hariri. Having
blocked the government, tribunal, and parliament, the Syrians
will now try to disrupt the Lebanese presidential elections.
In Hariri's view, the U.S. should not support any
presidential candidate by name but should send strong
messages of support for Lebanese democracy. Lebanon, in
Hariri's view, is prototype for Iran. If Iran succeeds in
Lebanon, then Bahrain, Qatar, and other Gulf countries are
next. Talking about the UNSCR drafts then circulating in New
York, Hariri pronounced the U.S. approach superior than the
current French proposal, which left too many problems down
the road. Hariri expressed hope that POTUS would "work the
phones" to help get the tribunal resolution approved. Hariri
commented that FPM leader Michel Aoun should be given a last
chance to change sides from opposition to pro-government
forces. End Summary.

UPBEAT ON FRENCH RELATIONS
AFTER SARKOZY-CHIRAC MEETING
--------------


2. (C) Saad Hariri, Member of Parliament and leader of the
Mustaqbal party, met on May 15 with visiting NEA A/S David
Welch. The Ambassador, Econoffs, and NEA Staff Assistant
accompanied A/S Welch. An upbeat and fit-looking Hariri was
wholly positive about his recent meeting and follow-up
telephone call with French president-elect Nicolas Sarkozy.
The Sarkozy meeting, which included President Jacques Chirac,
confirmed for Hariri that the special relationship between
France and Lebanon will continue and that the "chemistry is
still good." Hariri said that Sarkozy assured him by phone
that he, like Chirac, would push other countries on the
tribunal.

CONTINUED WARNINGS ABOUT SYRIA
--------------


3. (C) On the other hand, Hariri expressed concern that
Syria was "too confident." He said that the Syrians had
followed a consistent policy since autumn: no government
(with the Shia walk-out),no tribunal, and no Parliament.
Now, in the same vein, the Syrian regime "will not let us
have the presidency" and may go as far as trying to create a
second Lebanese government. Although the Syrians have time
before they need the parallel government, they are already
attempting to discredit PM Siniora, escalating the rhetoric
that calls him "Israeli" and a U.S. tool.


4. (C) Hariri believes that the campaign to discredit
Siniora began after Hariri's interview with Al-Arabiyya, in
which Hariri said that only a Presidential candidate from
March 14 would be acceptable. Characterizing Hizballah as
"masters of negotiation," Hariri explained that his decision
to make such a statement was the first step in negotiations.
He said that March 14 had made a mistake, which would not be
repeated, when the group initially agreed to accept the
notion of a 19-10-1 cabinet. Instead, they should have
started with a proposal of a 21-9 split, and only later
agreed to the reduction of their own representation.

SYRIA WILL STOP LEBANON'S
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
--------------


5. (C) Hariri then spoke of "echoes" from Syria, further
evidence that Bashar al-Assad "won't allow" the presidential
election. Commenting that the issue of the special tribunal
will "hopefully be settled in the next week to ten days,"
Hariri then said that he sees the Syrians looking at the
"political void" of an empty presidency and whether to use
this to provoke civil unrest. Hariri admitted that he did
not know where the Iranians stood. He argued that the
Syrians are "comfortable" with the current situation because
nothing serious has been done to constrain them from acting
however they wish in Lebanon. Besides having meetings with

BEIRUT 00000704 002 OF 003


the Israelis via Abe Soliman, the Syrians believe that their
cooperation over the issue of the Iraq-Syria border will give
them a bargaining advantage in asserting their "stake" in
Lebanon.


6. (C) Although Hariri said that he knows that the U.S.
will not give in to Syria, he believes that the Syrians think
the U.S. will soften its stance on Lebanon. But Hariri also
questioned the value of U.S. sanctions against Syria. He
mentioned that in a recent visit by Speaker Pelosi and her
accompanying delegation, Congressman Lantos had referred to
more sanctions, which have not yet been imposed. Hariri said
he had met with the Iranian ambassador just prior to
receiving A/S Welch. Hariri said he told the Iranian
ambassador that if the Syrians prevent presidential elections
from taking place, the Syrians will gain more of a hold over
Hizballah.

WHAT IS THE U.S. MESSAGE?
--------------


7. (C) Hariri said that the highest priority for the U.S. in
Lebanon should be sustaining a clear message about the
presidential elections. He recommended that the U.S. line
should be, "We are all for democracy, but we don't want to
interfere". The U.S. should not support any particular
candidate; everyone should be on the same level. At the same
time, the U.S. should tell the Syrians to support the
tribunal, respect UNSCR 1701, and stop the infiltration of
arms into Lebanon. Hariri, in arguing that the Syrians are
focused on preventing the Lebanese presidential elections,
observed that there are other things that "make them crazy"
now. Among those issues are a speedy resolution to the
Palestinian problem and engagement on terrorists moving
through Syria to Iraq. Pushing these issues will reinforce
to the Syrians that their behavior in Lebanon and elsewhere
needs to change.
LEBANON IS PROTOTYPE FOR IRAN
--------------


8. (C) Hariri noted that he sees Lebanon as a test case for
Iran. If the Iranians can succeed in transforming Lebanon
into an Islamic religious state, then they will succeed in
the Gulf. Currently Iran is attempting to appease the Gulf
states in order to buy time so that they can focus on their
fight with the U.S. Hariri said Iran will "go all the way"
for a nuclear bomb.

TRIBUNAL PROPOSALS BEFORE THE UN
--------------


9. (C) Hariri then discussed the two draft proposals then in
circulation for moving the tribunal forward in the UN
Security Council. He said that he talked to President Chirac
and explained that the U.S. proposal, while it contained some
problems, was better for the Lebanese than the less detailed
French proposal that pushed some problems off until later.
He suggested attempting to move forward with the U.S.
proposal, and only going to the French version if the U.S.
draft failed to gain agreement. He asserted that the French
proposal, if implemented, would quickly lead to further
blockages over issues such as funding and location. Cyprus,
he stated, is an unacceptable site since it is a "hub for
(Syrian) intelligence." Hariri expressed satisfaction with
A/S Welch's explanation of our tactics and timing for moving
the tribunal forward.

SUPPORT FOR THE PROPOSAL
--------------


10. (C) In discussing PM Siniora's letter to UNSYG Ban,
Hariri explained that Siniora had earlier sought the needed
cabinet approval. Waiting for the right time, Siniora
determined to move after the French election but before
Chirac left office, and with the support of both Chirac and
Sarkozy. Hariri mentioned without elaboration that a
misunderstanding with the Russians deriving from Siniora's
telephone call with Putin had subsequently been cleared up.
Saying that "people like to be talked to," Hariri urged that
President Bush "work the phones" and call Brussels, Pretoria
and other UNSC member capitals to gain support for the
tribunal resolution. The Saudis are talking to the Russians.
President Mubarak called Hariri to tell him not to change
anything on the tribunal, and promised to talk to the
Russians. A quick resolution will pressure the Syrians.

BEIRUT 00000704 003 OF 003



LAST CHANCE FOR AOUN
--------------


11. (C) Discussing other pressure points, Hariri agreed that
General Michel Aoun should be given a last chance to change
sides in Lebanon's domestic political standoff. Hariri said
that Aoun's supporters are more susceptible to appeals for
changing sides than Hizballah's supporters, since they travel
outside of Lebanon. Hariri suggested that Aoun be "pounded
with threats." The pressure of Maronite Patriarch Sfeir on
Aoun is also helpful. Finally, U.S. mention of Elie Skaff as
a presidential candidate might help.

FINAL THOUGHTS
--------------


12. (C) When asked for suggestions about the post-meeting
press statement, Hariri jokingly suggested, "Nuke 'em!"
(referring to Syria) as the best response. He quickly
pointed out that Arab moderates are supporters of the U.S.
and of the Arab peace initiative. "I am proud of our
relationship," he said. In his statement to the press, he
said that the meeting revolved around discussions of how to
move forward on the issues of the tribunal and the Arab
initiative as it was recently endorsed again in Saudi Arabia.



13. (U) This message has not been cleared by A/S Welch.
FELTMAN