Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BEIRUT698
2007-05-17 16:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
LEBANON: GEAGEA FOCUSES ON ELECTIONS WITH A/S
how-toVZCZCXRO8660 PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV DE RUEHLB #0698/01 1371652 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 171652Z MAY 07 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8215 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1117 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000698
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA FOCUSES ON ELECTIONS WITH A/S
WELCH
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000698
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA FOCUSES ON ELECTIONS WITH A/S
WELCH
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) In a 16 May meeting with visiting NEA A/S Welch and
the Ambassador, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea
expressed confidence that the 14 March coalition could unite
behind one presidential candidate. He insisted that March 14
would elect a president with a simple majority, but urged the
U.S. to pressure its "friends" not to boycott the elections.
Geagea requested quick U.S. recognition of the candidate
selected by the March 14 coalition. He emphasized repeatedly
that there was no "two-government" option. End Summary.
MARCH 14 WILL ELECT A PRESIDENT
--------------
2. (C) In a May 16 meeting at the Ambassador's residence with
visiting NEA Assistant Secretary Welch, Lebanese Forces (LF)
leader Dr. Samir Geagea declared that the presidential
election will govern all political moves in Lebanon from now
until the election takes place in the fall. He was adamant
that the March 14 coalition has a presidential candidate of
its own and claimed that such a candidate would not be
difficult to find. Additionally, Geagea argued that only a
majority of a Parliamentary quorum is needed to elect the
president, despite the precedent of a two-thirds vote. He
stressed that if Aoun and Hizballah boycott the vote, the
March 14 coalition will elect a president with a simple
majority of the Parliament.
3. (C) Geagea has tried to discuss presidential candidates
with Christian politician General Michel Aoun on several
occasions, but the General refuses to engage in any dialogue
that does not have him as the only potential candidate. The
General, as president, is an "impossible" outcome for Geagea.
He plans to continue pushing Aoun to agree on a (non-Aoun)
candidate. Geagea commented that Aoun's public attacks
against him and Druze leader Walid Junblatt have become less
frequent. He believes that Aoun's criticism drew attention
to Geagea's prominent position in the March 14 coalition and
debunked Aoun's claim that March 14 Christians are
subservient to the coalition's Muslims (a rallying cry Aoun
has used to scare Christians to his side). Asked about
Aoun's seemingly large financial base, Geagea claimed he has
heard rumors of Qatari funding for the General's nascent
"Orange TV" station.
NO TWO-GOVERNMENT OPTION
--------------
4. (C) Geagea repeated adamantly throughout the meeting that,
"there can be no two-government scenario." He claims that
President Lahoud cannot establish a separate Cabinet when
there already is a legitimate Cabinet in place. Lahoud does
not have the power on his own to dismiss the Cabinet, and he
cannot dissolve the National Assembly (parliament) because
there already is a viable National Assembly. Geagea was
disinclined to consider the Ambassador's suggestion that
Lahoud's thoughts regarding the legitimacy of Lebanese
institutions could provide insight into his intentions.
Geagea argued, "we have to cut short" Lahoud and Berri and
show them there is no option for a two-government scenario.
He said that if Lahoud did name a second government, it would
be a "coup d'tat" and should be treated as such. Geagea
said his only fear in the run-up to elections is that the
Syrians will resort to assassinations and "political
misdeeds."
HOW THE U.S. CAN HELP
--------------
5. (C) Geagea noted that the U.S. could help March 14 find a
suitable presidential candidate. First, he requested that
the U.S. and the international community quickly recognize
any president the March 14 coalition elects by a simple
majority of the parliament. Geagea said he has not given up
on finding a compromise candidate with the opposition, but he
said U.S. efforts to quickly recognize, and thus legitimize,
March 14's final choice would be crucial. Additionally,
Geagea asked that the U.S. pressure its "friends" in the
National Assembly to show up at the Parliament building to
cast their votes on election-day. He thought this would
bring the session closer to a two-thirds quorum and could
BEIRUT 00000698 002 OF 002
limit accusations that the election was unconstitutional.
6. (U) This message has not been cleared by A/S Welch.
FELTMAN
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA FOCUSES ON ELECTIONS WITH A/S
WELCH
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) In a 16 May meeting with visiting NEA A/S Welch and
the Ambassador, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea
expressed confidence that the 14 March coalition could unite
behind one presidential candidate. He insisted that March 14
would elect a president with a simple majority, but urged the
U.S. to pressure its "friends" not to boycott the elections.
Geagea requested quick U.S. recognition of the candidate
selected by the March 14 coalition. He emphasized repeatedly
that there was no "two-government" option. End Summary.
MARCH 14 WILL ELECT A PRESIDENT
--------------
2. (C) In a May 16 meeting at the Ambassador's residence with
visiting NEA Assistant Secretary Welch, Lebanese Forces (LF)
leader Dr. Samir Geagea declared that the presidential
election will govern all political moves in Lebanon from now
until the election takes place in the fall. He was adamant
that the March 14 coalition has a presidential candidate of
its own and claimed that such a candidate would not be
difficult to find. Additionally, Geagea argued that only a
majority of a Parliamentary quorum is needed to elect the
president, despite the precedent of a two-thirds vote. He
stressed that if Aoun and Hizballah boycott the vote, the
March 14 coalition will elect a president with a simple
majority of the Parliament.
3. (C) Geagea has tried to discuss presidential candidates
with Christian politician General Michel Aoun on several
occasions, but the General refuses to engage in any dialogue
that does not have him as the only potential candidate. The
General, as president, is an "impossible" outcome for Geagea.
He plans to continue pushing Aoun to agree on a (non-Aoun)
candidate. Geagea commented that Aoun's public attacks
against him and Druze leader Walid Junblatt have become less
frequent. He believes that Aoun's criticism drew attention
to Geagea's prominent position in the March 14 coalition and
debunked Aoun's claim that March 14 Christians are
subservient to the coalition's Muslims (a rallying cry Aoun
has used to scare Christians to his side). Asked about
Aoun's seemingly large financial base, Geagea claimed he has
heard rumors of Qatari funding for the General's nascent
"Orange TV" station.
NO TWO-GOVERNMENT OPTION
--------------
4. (C) Geagea repeated adamantly throughout the meeting that,
"there can be no two-government scenario." He claims that
President Lahoud cannot establish a separate Cabinet when
there already is a legitimate Cabinet in place. Lahoud does
not have the power on his own to dismiss the Cabinet, and he
cannot dissolve the National Assembly (parliament) because
there already is a viable National Assembly. Geagea was
disinclined to consider the Ambassador's suggestion that
Lahoud's thoughts regarding the legitimacy of Lebanese
institutions could provide insight into his intentions.
Geagea argued, "we have to cut short" Lahoud and Berri and
show them there is no option for a two-government scenario.
He said that if Lahoud did name a second government, it would
be a "coup d'tat" and should be treated as such. Geagea
said his only fear in the run-up to elections is that the
Syrians will resort to assassinations and "political
misdeeds."
HOW THE U.S. CAN HELP
--------------
5. (C) Geagea noted that the U.S. could help March 14 find a
suitable presidential candidate. First, he requested that
the U.S. and the international community quickly recognize
any president the March 14 coalition elects by a simple
majority of the parliament. Geagea said he has not given up
on finding a compromise candidate with the opposition, but he
said U.S. efforts to quickly recognize, and thus legitimize,
March 14's final choice would be crucial. Additionally,
Geagea asked that the U.S. pressure its "friends" in the
National Assembly to show up at the Parliament building to
cast their votes on election-day. He thought this would
bring the session closer to a two-thirds quorum and could
BEIRUT 00000698 002 OF 002
limit accusations that the election was unconstitutional.
6. (U) This message has not been cleared by A/S Welch.
FELTMAN