LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIAN SUGGESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000650

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIAN SUGGESTS
MARCH 14 AND ITS ALLIES REVIEW SHIA POLICY


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Independent Shia political leader Mohammad Baydoun
in early May expressed frustration that the March 14 movement
continues to approach the Shia community exclusively through
Nabih Berri, whom Baydoun considers an unreliable partner.
The main impediment to progress in Lebanon is Hizballah and
Amal's exclusive control of the Shia community, Baydoun
reasoned. Weak reconstruction efforts, however, have created
an opportunity for March 14 to approach the Shia. To break
Hizballah and Amal's control of the Shia community, March 14
and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, should fund
independent Shia figures, stealing a page from the Iranians
who are busy funding groups outside their own sect. Finally,
Baydoun argued that supporting alternate Shia leaders could
reduce arms smuggling. End Summary.

MARCH 14 IS MAKING A SERIOUS ERROR
IN ITS BLIND COURTSHIP OF BERRI
--------------


2. (SBU) Independent Shia politician Mohammad Abed al-Hamid
Baydoun told Polstaff on May 7 that the pro-reform March 14
bloc should review its policies toward the Shia community in
general, and Speaker Nabih Berri in particular. Baydoun
expressed outrage that Berri is the principal reason
parliament remains blocked, and yet March 14 is still trying
to negotiate with him or lure him to their side. Baydoun
explained his frustration with the policies recently
enunciated by Future Movement MP Walid Eido and Prime
Minister Siniora's advisor Mohammad Chatah. Baydoun believes
March 14 lacks a clear strategy for the critical period
following approval of the Special Tribunal, but still
believes it can fight Hizballah by co-opting Nabih Berri.
Baydoun also faulted March 14 for failing to engage with
alternative figures in Lebanon's diverse Shia community and
attempting to use the Shia Mufti of Tyre, Sayyed Ali
Al-Amine, without providing him any political or financial
support.

RECONSTRUCTION MISTAKES
OFFER OPPORTUNITY TO COURT SHIA
--------------


3. (SBU) Baydoun expressed his strong belief that the
principal impediment to progress in Lebanon is the tight
control Hizballah, and to a lesser extent Amal, exercise over
the Shia community. He added that unless there is a genuine
effort to break this monopoly, Lebanon will not resolve its
internal conflicts. Baydoun argued that March 14 and its
sponsors now have a real opportunity to break this monopoly
because the compensation provided by Hizballah in south
Lebanon has been confined to Hizballah and Amal supporters.
According to Baydoun, this biased compensation scheme has
created a strong wave of disenchantment and could be the
catalyst for alternative Shia forces to emerge.

GREATER FUNDING, ATTENTION NEEDED
--------------


4. (SBU) Baydoun argued that to take advantage of this
opportunity, March 14 and its allies -- in particular Saudi
Arabia through Saad Hariri -- should institute a new policy
toward the Shia community and start disbursing money directly
to Shia aereas neglected by Hizballah. He reasoned that such
a policy would copy Iran's successful financing of groups
within other confessions (e.g., Wiam Wahab in the Druze
community, Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh in the Christian
community, and Fathi Yakan in the Sunni community).


5. (SBU) Baydoun was also critical of Saudi Ambassador to
Lebanon Abdulaziz Khoja, arguing that Saudi Arabia should
entrust "a more enlightened figure" to handle the critical
Lebanese portfolio. He maintained that the Iranian Embassy
in Damascus has approximately 70 people working on the
Lebanon portfolio and that the team is managed directly by
Iranian Ambassador Hassan Akhtari.


6. (C) Baydoun suggested March 14's international allies
consider supporting former Hizballah Secretary General Subhi
Tufayli. Baydoun said his internet research indicated that
Tufayli is not officially designated a terrorist by the U.S.,

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but asked us to confirm whether his research is accurate on
this issue. (Note: Tufayli is indeed designated and remains
wanted in Lebanon on murder charges. End Note.) Baydoun
assessed that Tufayli is the only figure in the Biqa' who
could pose a serious threat to Hassan Nasrallah, but only if
he had financial support. According to Baydoun, if the
Saudis would allocate some $50,000 per month to Tufayli, he
could achieve a great deal and such support could eventually
lead to a cessation of arms smuggling from Syria to
Hizballah, as Tufayli's people could monitor and stop such
activities.
FELTMAN