FRENCH AMBASSADOR ON TRIBUNAL, BRAMMERTZ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000645

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2027
TAGS: PTER PREL UNSC LE SY
SUBJECT: FRENCH AMBASSADOR ON TRIBUNAL, BRAMMERTZ,
PRESIDENCY, HIS OWN DEPARTURE

REF: A. USUN 349


B. BEIRUT 638

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a 5/7 meeting with Ambassador Feltman, French
Ambassador Bernard Emie, just back from Paris, reported that
France wants to move quickly toward a simple UNSCR
establishing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Emie agreed
that it appears that the pro-Syrians already recognize the
inevitability of Chapter VII action and are establishing the
position that they will refuse to recognize the tribunal.
Like the Ambassador, Emie expressed deep concern of rumors
that UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon wants to come to Beirut for one last
try to get the Lebanese together, a futile mission in Emie's
view that would serve only to delay action in New York. Emie
noted unconfirmed rumors that, on the margins of Sharm
al-Sheikh conference, the Syrians had at last given comments
on the tribunal to Saudi Arabia. If true, such comments were
surely designed to delay, not facilitate, the tribunal's
establishment.


2. (C) On other topics, Emie expressed deep concern that
the U.S. and UK are being insufficiently helpful in finding
an onward position for UNIIIC Commissioner Serge Brammertz.
In France's view, the U.S. and UK refusal to consider
Brammertz as Carla del Ponte's successor at the ICTY will
lead Brammertz to leave UNIIIC in June, a "catastrophic
development," in Emie's view. The two Ambassadors also spoke
inconclusively about Lebanon's presidency. Emie, citing
consultations in Paris, thought that incoming French
President Sarkozy would not change France's Lebanon policy
significantly, but he perhaps will succumb to pressure to
engage Syria. In terms of his own succession, Emie plans to
leave Lebanon for Turkey in August. If President Emile
Lahoud denies agrement to Emie's successor, then
Ambassador-designate Andre Parant (currently France's
Ambassador to Senegal) will arrive in Lebanon anyway, as
charge d'affaires. End summary.

FRENCH CITIZENS IN LEBANON
VOTE FOR SARKOZY BY 71 PERCENT
--------------


3. (C) Receiving Ambassador Feltman at the French Embassy
on 5/7, Emie reported that 52 percent of the registered
French voters resident in Lebanon had cast their ballots at
nine polling stations throughout the country. While this
percentage was lower than the French domestic turnout
exceeding 80 percent, it was considerably higher than the 40
percent worldwide French expatriate voting. Of the more than
6,000 votes cast in Lebanon, 71 percent went for the winner,
Nicolas Sarkozy. What was interesting, Emie said, was that
in Sidon, the polling station furthest to the south, Segolene
Royal received well over half the votes -- suggesting to Emie
that Hizballah had issued orders to its supporters who were
dual nationals.

SARKOZY WON'T CHANGE SUBSTANCE (BUT MAYBE TONE)
OF FRANCE'S LEBANON POLICY, EMIE PREDICTS
--------------


4. (C) Emie, who had returned the previous day from a week
of consultations in Paris, reported that he had met with some
of Sarkozy's advisors in Paris. Emie predicted that Sarkozy
would follow a similar policy to Chirac's regarding Lebanon,
including continuity in the coordination with the USG. If
anything, Sarkozy's views on Hizballah will probably be
closer to the American thinking. Of course, Emie noted, at
the personal level Sarkozy will have a far different
relationship with the Lebanese, as he does not have the
personal connections with the Hariri family than Jacques
Chirac enjoys. Emie did express concern that Sarkozy would
find it hard to resist the pressure to engage Syria in talks.
With the U.S. talking to Syria at Sharm al-Sheikh, it
becomes that much more difficult for France to continue its
(relative) isolation policy, Emie said. The Ambassador noted
that Sarkozy's views on Hizballah might quickly put a break
on any potential French rapprochement with Syria and that
perhaps we could finally have some unified positions
regarding terrorist financing.

FRANCE WANTS TO MOVE 'QUICKLY' FOR TRIBUNAL,

BEIRUT 00000645 002 OF 003


BUT EMIE NOT SURE OF A SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME
--------------


5. (C) Emie cited the Special Tribunal for Lebanon as an
example of an issue where "we can safely predict" that
Sarkozy will continue the policy of his predecessor. France
believes that all domestic roads in Lebanon are blocked, Emie
said, and "therefore it is time for the international
community to step up to its responsibilities." While saying
that France wants to move "quickly" toward UNSC action, Emie
acknowledged that he did not have a specific timeframe in
mind. Chirac would like at least for PM Siniora to have sent
his second letter to the UN by Chirac's last day in office,
ten days from now. The French envision a simple resolution
bringing the existing tribunal agreement into force, but Emie
had not yet seen a specific text. Emie's understanding of
the steps to be taken correspond with those in ref A.

RUMORS OF A RETURN OF BAN KI-MOON,
A TRIP THAT WOULD ONLY DELAY UNSC ACTION
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador noted that Special Coordinator for
Lebanon Geir Pedersen had hinted that UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon is
considering another trip to Lebanon, to make one last try to
bring the Lebanese together around the tribunal. Ban said as
much in an interview with Al-Hayet newspaper. Emie noted
that he had heard "worrying rumors" to that effect as well.
Both Emie and Ambassador Feltman agreed that, with the
domestic roads in Lebanon all blocked, a trip by the UNSYG
now would simply serve as a delaying tactic. There is no
objective reason for such a trip, Emie said; "it's worse than
pointless." Noting that Arab League Secretary General Amr
Moussa would not travel to Lebanon before the establishment
of the tribunal (ref A),the Ambassadors agreed to recommend
to their capitals to try to discourage such a trip at this
point. Emie, noting that he was seeing Pedersen later today,
also said that he would try to persuade the UN envoy to
recommend against such a trip.


7. (C) Emie said that he had heard rumors that the Syrians,
perhaps on the margins of the Sharm al-Sheikh meetings, had
at last passed comments on the tribunal to Saudi Arabia. The
Ambassador noted that, while he had heard the same rumors,
this was not the first time such a story had circulated. If
indeed Syria has passed on comments ("something we need to
check"),Emie concluded that the Syrians were hoping to delay
UNSC action, not facilitate the establishment of the
tribunal. And "we shouldn't wait a month" to evaluate any
Syrian comments in any case, Emie argued.

PRO-SYRIANS INDICATING THAT THEY
WILL REFUSE TO DEAL WITH TRIBUNAL
--------------


8. (C) The two ambassadors also talked about a recent
escalation in rhetoric from March 8 politicians regarding the
tribunal. They agreed that the harsh tone could be intended
to give UNSC members second thoughts about moving ahead on
Chapter VII action. But the more likely scenario, they
speculated, is that the pro-Syrians have already concluded
that Chapter VII approval of the tribunal is inevitable.
Therefore, Nabih Berri, Hizballah, and others are signaling
that they will refuse to recognize the tribunal and refuse to
cooperate with it. "They are going to treat the tribunal as
they treat 1559," Emie said, "with or without Chapter VII."

EMIE FINGERS U.S., UK AS COMPLICATING
BRAMMERTZ' ABILITY TO STAY ON AS UNIIIC HEAD
--------------


8. (C) Turning to a different subject, Emie said that
France is deeply worried that Serge Brammertz will leave his
UNIIIC post in June, creating a vacuum in the UNIIIC in
advance of its July report. This would be a "catastrophic
development," Emie said, arguing that Lebanon's pro-Syrians
will use Brammertz' departure to claim that international
interest in Lebanon is waning. The only reason we are facing
this problem, Emie argued, is because the U.S. and UK are
refusing to agree to allow Brammertz to succeed Carla del
Ponte when she steps down as the head of the International
Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) later in
the year. "Frankly, we don't understand your position," Emie
grumbled, wondering why we wouldn't be exerting all efforts
to keep Brammertz in place. "Do you really want to give
Syria a victory, just now?"

BEIRUT 00000645 003 OF 003




9. (C) The Ambassador asked Emie whether Brammertz was
really so eager to leave in June. Everyone knows that
Brammertz and his immediate superior at the ICC do not get
along. Might Brammertz be using the threat of resignation to
manipulate France and the United States, two countries that
are very aware of how important it is that he stay in place?
Emie insisted that he was convinced that Brammertz would quit
if nothing solid materializes quite soon. "He's not, what do
you say, 'crying wolf.'" Emie discounted the possibility of
getting the UN to create something appropriate for Brammertz
in New York in time to give Brammertz the job security he
demands as the price of staying at the UNIIIC for six more
months. After all, Brammertz had his experience with the UN
trying to create and fill positions. He knows not to trust
the word of the UN, Emie concluded. "We have to come up with
something firm," and the ICTY is "our best bet."

LEBANON'S PRESIDENCY: AFTER TRIBUNAL,
NEED TO ADDRESS THIS SERIOUSLY
--------------


10. (C) The two ambassadors agreed that the March 14
leaders need to develop a clear strategy on how they will
approach Lebanon's presidential elections in autumn. This
issue will need to be addressed seriously immediately after
the tribunal is established. The ambassadors touched
inconclusively on the usual subjects regarding the presidency
-- the role of Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, the relative
positions of various candidates, the connections between some
candidates and the Syrians, and so forth -- without covering
new ground.

EMIE'S PLANNED ROTATION TO ANKARA;
FRANCE TO SEND AMBASSADOR AS CHARGE
--------------


11. (C) Asked by Ambassador Feltman about his own plans,
Emie said that he had just received word from the French
Embassy in Ankara that the Turks had given agrement for his
assignment as ambassador to Turkey. Emie did not think that
Sarkozy's people would reverse Chirac's decision in this
regard. Emie hoped to use the July 14 national day cocktail
as his farewell, with an actual departure in August.


12. (C) Emie noted that his Embassy had submitted a request
for agrement for Andre Parant, currently France's Ambassador
to Senegal, to replace him in Beirut. Acting Foreign
Minister Tariq Mitri "just laughed and put the request in his
pocket," Emie noted. While there is a chance that President
Emile Lahoud, in an attempt to turn over a new leaf with
France upon the election of Sarkozy, will grant agrement to
Parant, it is more likely, in Emie's view, that Lahoud will
stonewall, as he has with other countries boycotting him
(including the U.S.). In that case, France will follow the
lead of Greece and simply send Parant as Charge d'Affaires,
to be upgraded to the accredited ambassador whenever
circumstances permit. Emie described Parant as "a carbon
copy of myself," able to play a powerful role even without
formal accreditation.
FELTMAN