LEBANON: MARCH 14 TURNS DOWN LATEST FRENCH EFFORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002007

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER FR LE QA SY UNSC
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 TURNS DOWN LATEST FRENCH EFFORT

Classified By: CDA William Grant for Reasons: Section 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Parliament Majority Leader Saad Hariri's advisor
Ghattas Khoury, explained to CDA and Poloff that the latest
French proposal on solving the political crisis in Lebanon --
based on a 15-13-2 cabinet -- would be rejected by the
majority. Khoury referred to the initiative as a Syrian
proposal more than a French one and urged the USG to put more
pressure on the Syrians, either bilaterally or through the
UN, to stop interfering in Lebanon. Khoury also said the
majority was fed up negotiating with Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri. End Summary.

MARCH 14 PRESENTS COUNTER PROPOSAL TO FRENCH
--------------


2. (C) Charge and Poloff met with Hariri advisor Ghattas
Khoury at Khoury's office in Qoreitem on December 28. Khoury
responded to questions on the most recent French proposal to
the political crisis which advocates March 14 accepting a
15-13-2 cabinet division (i.e., in a 30-seat cabinet, 15 for
the majority led by the March 14 bloc, 13 for the opposition
and 2 for the president to choose). Khoury said March 14
would not accept the new proposal.


3. (C) March 14 planned to respond to the French proposal
with its own four step solution. The steps are: one,
election of a president, with necessary constitutional
amendments carried out through the Siniora cabinet. Two,
following that, the president chooses the prime minister
through the established process. Three, the president then
leads a consultative process to agree on a program for the
new government. Four, the process of distributing seats in a
30-seat cabinet based in some way on representation of
various blocs in the parliament.


4. (C) Khoury said that the key issue for March 14 in the
distribution of seats is that the opposition receive 10 seats
or less in order to prevent it from having a blocking
one-third minority, and March 14 receives a simple majority
of seats. The new cabinet and the parliament could address
the issue of a fair and equitable reform of the election law,
Khoury said. Khoury noted that the key March 14 leaders,
Hariri, Jumblatt, Gemayel and Geagea, had agreed with this
response to the latest French proposal.

FRENCH EFFORTS DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD
--------------


5. (C) Khoury expressed his dissatisfaction with France. He
said that France's most recent initiative was a Syrian
proposal that the French just forwarded to March 14. "the
French are killing March 14 with their initiatives and
proposals" he said. He suggested that the French were being
receptive to the Syrians at the behest of Qatar, explaining
that the Qataris just completed a USD 17 billion deal with
the French to purchase a number of Airbus airplanes, and that
the Qataris are using leverage with the French to push for
greater cooperation with Syria. He noted, though, that
French FM Bernard Kouchner was fed up with Syria and the
efforts by the French presidency to resolve the crisis in
Lebanon. Khoury suggested that the U.S. do more to prevent
any new French initiatives from materializing.

U.S. CAN PUT TOUGHER SANCTIONS ON SYRIA
--------------


6. (C) Khoury said the U.S. should initiate tougher punitive
actions against Syrian officials. We should designate Rami
Makhlouf, a financial advisor to Syrian President Bashir
al-Assad. Khoury said that Makhlouf stole USD 40 million
from the Syrian government and laundered the money through
telecommunications companies in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar.


7. (C) Khoury also said that the U.S. should sanction Syria
for its violations of UNSCR 1559 and UNSCR 1701. He added
that the U.S. should make a case against Syria in the UN and
could call for sanctions against Syria in the form of an oil
embargo. That, in Khoury's view, would "bring the Syrians to
their knees within a week" and would encourage the Syrians to

BEIRUT 00002007 002 OF 002


become more cooperative with the international community on
finding a solution to the current political impasse in
Lebanon. Through the UN and with USG mechanisms, such as the
Syrian Accountability Act of 2003, the U.S. could find a way
to sanction the government of Syria.

DISTRUSTFUL OF BERRI
--------------


8. (C) Khoury added that March 14 was finished negotiating
with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. According to Khoury,
Berri's solutions to elect a president are now being seen by
March 14 as disingenuous. Khoury said it was outrageous for
a speaker of parliament to ignore the majority of members in
parliament and now "the majority will ignore him." Khoury
noted, though, that the election of a president was unlikely
to occur without going through parliament, and therefore
going through Berri. (Note: Under the current situation, a
president could be elected if the cabinet decided to execute
the current presidential powers given to it under the
constitution during this crisis. However, all sides agree
that this option was unlikely. End Note.)

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Khoury was pessimistic about any breakthrough on the
election of a president before March 2008. Parliament does
not operate in legislative session January 1-March 16, but
can meet for an electoral session. Khoury said that unless
something occurs to change Syrian or Iranian policy towards
Lebanon, no breakthrough should be expected in the
short-term. End Comment.
FELTMAN