DID HU JINTAO ASSESS VIETNAM'S POLITICAL REFORMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000972

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2032
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH VN
SUBJECT: DID HU JINTAO ASSESS VIETNAM'S POLITICAL REFORMS
AS NON-SOCIALIST?

REF: A. 06 BEIJING 03852

B. 06 BEIJING 22131

BEIJING 00000972 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Daniel Shields.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) An officer at the Vietnamese Embassy said he finds
credible reports circulating among ASEAN diplomats in Beijing
that President Hu Jintao wrote the phrase "this is not
Socialism" on a document Hu was given describing political
reforms at Vietnam's April 2006 10th Party Congress. The
question of what Vietnam's political reforms might mean for
China attracted new attention after the reform-minded
publication Southern Weekend listed 70-year-old reformer Zhou
Ruijin as the first among its 12 candidates for person of the
year in December. In July Zhou had pointed publicly to
Vietnam's 2006 10th Party Congress's electoral reforms and
solicitation of public opinion as ideas that China should
emulate. Chinese scholars were skeptical about the
leadership in Beijing moving ahead on such reforms now and in
general were dismissive of the notion that China should
emulate Vietnam. End Summary.


2. (C) Vietnamese Embassy Political Officer Tranh Viet Thai
stated, in response to questions from Poloff, that he finds
credible reports circulating among ASEAN diplomats in Beijing
that President Hu Jintao wrote the phrase "this is not
Socialism" on a document Hu was given describing political
reforms at Vietnam's April 2006 10th Party Congress. Embassy
of Singapore DCM Yip Weikiat separately told Polmincouns that
he had heard, but could not confirm, that Party guidance was
circulated under instructions from Hu saying that while
Vietnam's early political reforms were good, subsequent
political reforms have gone too far and are not consistent
with Socialism.


3. (C) The question of what Vietnam's political reforms might
mean for China attracted new attention after the
reform-minded publication Southern Weekend listed 70-year-old
reformer Zhou Ruijin as the first among its 12 candidates for
person of the year in December. The issue was a hot topic of
discussion among Chinese intellectuals prior to the Chinese
Communist Party's Sixth Plenum in September, when
intellectual debates over reform were raging (Ref A). In
July, Zhou, a former top editor of the Party flagship paper
The People's Daily, had publicly challenged China's leaders
to emulate Vietnam's example on political reform. In a
sharply worded article posted on the Internet, Zhou (also
known by the pen name "Huangfu Ping," which he used with
others to defend Deng Xiaoping-era reforms) said that Vietnam
had learned much from China's economic reforms but that the
"student has now surpassed the teacher" demonstrating that
accelerating political reform "is the correct way to go."


4. (SBU) Zhou complained that China was "bogged down in
wrangling" over reforms, urging in particular that China
learn from Vietnam in five areas:

--strengthening the role of the Party Central Committee in
supervising the Politburo, including Central Committee
approval by secret ballot of major policy proposals,
personnel decisions and large engineering projects;

--establishing a system whereby Central Committee members may
ask Party leaders, including the General Secretary, for
explanations of pending decisions at plenums "until the
answers are satisfactory";

--making public in advance a draft of the political report of
Party Congresses in order to solicit the views of both Party
members and the public at large;

--holding indirect Party elections with more candidates than
posts, by secret ballot, and providing background information
on candidates in advance of the elections and;

--raising the ratio of full-time representatives in the
country's national legislature to 25 percent and allowing the
legislature to question Government policies before live
broadcast media.


5. (C) While Zhou's July article inspired some optimism
among Chinese reformers about the possibility that real
political reform would be included in the agenda for China's
17th Party Congress in fall 2007, contacts subsequently
indicated that significant reforms were most likely not in

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the cards (Ref B). A well-connected former People's Daily
editorial writer claimed that Hu Jintao came under pressure
from pro- and anti-reform forces, but heeded the consensus
among senior leaders against pursuing political reform.


6. (C) Several academics dismissed Zhou's suggestion that
Vietnam could be a model for China's political reform, noting
the differences between the two countries and expressing
annoyance at the comparison. Director of People's University
Contemporary Political Parties Institute Zhou Shuzhen
(protect) told Poloff that any comparison between China's and
Vietnam's political reforms is "misguided," noting that China
is "more developed" than Vietnam and has little to learn from
it. Cai Dingjian (protect),Professor at China University of
Politics and Law and outspoken constitutional scholar and
legal reformer, told poloff that Hu Jintao might endorse some
inner-Party reforms, such as allowing more candidates than
positions in some internal Party elections, but that
emulating Vietnam's reforms was "out of the question."


7. (C) Separately, Beijing University's Faculty of Law
Professor He Weifang (protect) said he had heard nothing
about Hu's reported comments that Vietnam's reforms are "not
Socialist" but acknowledged that "some elements" within the
Party wish to use Vietnam's example to promote reform within
the Chinese Communist Party. In general, reformists within
the Party believe that internal democratic reforms can
eventually lead to political reforms outside the Party.
After all, how can China ever be democratic if its ruling
Party is completely undemocratic, He asked rhetorically.
Regardless of where it ends up on the question of political
reform, however, the direction in which China needs to go is
"fairly obvious," and Beijing "doesn't need to learn
anything" from Hanoi, He concluded.


8. (C) China Institute for Contemporary International
Relations Southeast Asia scholar Zhai Kun (protect) asserted
that China continues to research Vietnam's reforms and share
experiences with Vietnam through a vibrant exchange between
the Communist Party Schools in Beijing and Hanoi. Zhai, who
stated he has no knowledge of Hu's reported negative
assessment of Vietnam's political reforms, said China
recognizes that Vietnam's reforms are quicker than its own.
Vietnam's reforms can move faster, he claimed, because
Vietnam does not face the same stability risks as China. For
example, Vietnam can pursue relations with the Vatican
because of its greater social and religious harmony and the
absence of the Taiwan issue, he said.


9. (C) The Vietnamese Embassy's Thai acknowledged that
exchanges between the Vietnam and Chinese Central Party
Schools were strengthened during Nong Duc Manh's August 2006
visit to China. Thai stated, however, that Party School
exchanges are focused more on theory and less on practical
reforms. He commented that Chinese who write about Vietnam's
reforms as a possible model for China to follow are using
Vietnam's reforms to justify their own political positions.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Hu's reported dismissal of Vietnam's reforms as "not
Socialist" is not likely to stand in the way of continued
experiments with local Party elections and other ongoing
governance experiments condoned by the Center. It is likely
to be effective, however, in cutting off discussion in China
of whether China can learn from Vietnam in the area of
political reform.
RANDT