PRC PREMIER WEN JIABAO AT ASEAN SUMMIT MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 007299

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH ASEAN
SUBJECT: PRC PREMIER WEN JIABAO AT ASEAN SUMMIT MEETINGS
AND CHINESE VIEWS ON EAST ASIAN INSTITUTIONS AND INTEGRATION

REF: BEIJING 7126

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Premier Wen Jiabao's participation in the
recent ASEAN Summit meetings in Singapore provided an
opportunity for China to promote its vision of East Asia
regional integration, according to MFA Asia Department ASEAN
Division Deputy Director He Wei. Deputy Director He and
Chinese scholars said China views the 10-plus-1 mechanism
(ASEAN plus China) as "the basis" for its engagement with the
region and the 10-plus-3 mechanism (ASEAN plus China, Japan
and South Korea) as the "main channel" for regional
integration. The East Asia Summit (10 plus 3 plus Australia,
New Zealand and India) serves as a strategic forum rather
than an organization. Chinese scholars, however, pointed out
that APEC and a U.S. role in the region are still important.
In any case, Chinese scholars believe that competing
interests will forestall any drastic changes in regional
architecture. End Summary.

China a Strong Partner
--------------

2. (C) MFA Asia Department ASEAN Division Deputy Director He
Wei briefed PolOff November 29 on Premier Wen Jiabao's
participation in the November 18-21 ASEAN Summit meetings.
Deputy Director (DDir) He pointed out that Wen's visit to
Singapore, the second major foreign visit after October's
17th Party Congress, confirmed China's position as a "strong
partner" and "neighborly friend" to its ASEAN neighbors.
DDir He said the overlapping multilateral institutions in the
region show that China and other countries in the region
share a strong desire to cooperate toward a peaceful region
and development. He said China needs a peaceful and stable
East Asia region for its own development, which in turn
promotes development in the rest of East Asia.

10 plus 1 the Basis of China's Integration in Region
-------------- --------------

3. (C) Deputy Director He said Premier Wen reiterated China's
commitment to ASEAN institutions as the vehicles for East
Asian integration and cooperation based on mutual respect and
equal treatment. China views the 10-plus-1 (ASEAN plus
China) mechanism as "the basis" for China's integration in
East Asia. DDir He said China and ASEAN have already
initiated a number of programmatic initiatives in the
10-plus-1 forum that promote regional integration, and in
Singapore Wen proposed 17 initiatives to enhance regional
cooperation, including a proposal to accelerate negotiations
for a China-ASEAN investment agreement in the context of the
China-ASEAN FTA framework. Premier Wen also suggested
information technology and infrastructure projects, He said,
observing that East Asia lags behind other regions in these
areas. Wen also signed an MOU on strengthening health and
plant health cooperation with ASEAN. MFA-affiliated China
Institute of International Studies (CIIS) SE Asia scholar
Shen Shishun told us that all the regional mechanisms have
useful functions, but agreed that for China, the 10 plus 1 is
the most "substantive" mechanism because it most practically
and directly addresses China's economic relations with the
ASEAN member states.

10 plus 3 a "Major Channel" of Regional Integration
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Deputy Director He said China supports the 10 plus 3
(ASEAN plus China, Japan and ROK) as the "major channel" for
overall regional integration. PM Wen suggested the 10 plus 3
speed implementation of financial measures in the 2000 Chiang
Mai Initiative. PM Wen also encouraged members to support
the 10 plus 3 Finance Cooperation Fund, established in August

2003. In addition to financial measures, China suggested
establishing a "non-traditional security platform" within the
10 plus 3. Deputy Director He admitted that such a platform
overlaps with the ASEAN Regional Forum, but said discussions
on non-traditional security threats in both fora will be
mutually reinforcing. CIIS scholar Shen said the 10 plus 3
is the best mechanism to increase ASEAN nations' economic
ties to Northeast Asia. China, Japan and South Korea have
let ASEAN take the lead in the 10 plus 3 to dampen ASEAN
fears that the economically strong Northeast Asian members
could dominate the forum. Shen said despite the appearance
that the 10 plus 3 is "a small horse dragging a big cart,"
China is comfortable with ASEAN's lead. In the end, Shen
said, "China does not care about form; it wants substantive
benefits."

EAS Platform for Strategic Discussions
--------------

5. (C) Deputy Director He called the EAS a "strategic issue
platform." CIIS scholar Shen agreed the East Asia Summit is

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"a forum to discuss cooperation in East Asia," rather than an
organization such as ASEAN. The larger EAS does not share
the regional affinities of the smaller 10 plus 3, but, on the
other hand, reflects a wider interest in the region from
partners such as India. Shen also highlighted that the EAS
contains more "democratic countries," which supports Japan's
vision for the EAS. Deputy Director He reported that PM Wen
participated in discussions on energy, environmental
protection and climate change at the East Asia Summit (which
includes the 10-plus-3 members and Australia, New Zealand and
India). PM Wen also signed the "Singapore Declaration on
Climate Change, Energy and the Environment."

APEC still important
--------------

6. (C) Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes
for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) Southeast
Asia scholar Zhai Kun and Chinese Academy of Social Science
(CASS) scholar Jia Duqiang both told us that APEC plays a
vital political and economic role in the region, if only
because of U.S. membership in APEC. Professor Zhai said the
APEC proposal for a Free Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific
would cover all of the EAS aside from India. Therefore,
China must pay attention to APEC, despite its discomfort with
Taiwan's presence. Professor Jia said among the various
regional architecture mechanisms, APEC could most effectively
address issues such as climate change and energy efficiency.


7. (C) Professor Jia did not foresee any sudden changes to
existing regional architecture. Jia said none of the current
regional architecture mechanisms are completely effective,
and there is "no clear picture of regional integration." He
explained that the current focus on building regional
economic ties reflects a lack of consensus on how to address
political issues. Jia said the various regional groupings
will continue for the foreseeable future because "conditions
are not mature enough for one organization" to integrate the
disparate conditions and interests of the nations in East
Asia. Zhai said competing interests in the various groupings
have reached a "balance of power." For example, Zhai said
Japan believes China dominates the 10-plus-3 mechanism, and
thus Japan favors the East Asia Summit, which includes fellow
democracies India, Australia and New Zealand. China's
leaders, Zhai said, believe all the mechanisms are
complementary. Zhai admitted that the various regional
groupings' member overlap leads to some redundancy, but, he
said, "a comfortable feeling (among countries in the region)
is more important that effectiveness."

South China Sea channels work well
--------------

8. (C) Asked whether PM Wen discussed the South China Sea
issue at the ASEAN Summit meetings, Deputy Director He
downplayed any sense of conflict, stating that in addition to
the 2002 "Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea," "we have proper bilateral channels" that work
well to address South China Sea issues.

Burma Discussions
--------------

9. (C) Deputy Director He offered no view on Singapore's
invitation for Special Advisor on Burma Ibrahim Gambari to
address the East Asia Summit and ASEAN's subsequent decision
not to allow Gambari to address the forum. Deputy Director
He said only that China "welcomes ASEAN's consensus" on the
issue. Professor Zhai said ASEAN's failed efforts to address
Burma will slow down ASEAN integration, a situation, he
claimed, that will benefit the United States. However, Zhai
said the United States would never be able to lead a
successful effort to solve the situation in Burma.
Therefore, the Burma situation will fall to China and India
to resolve.
RANDT