CHINA-INDIA DEFENSE TALKS BUILD CONFIDENCE, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 007295

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PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS CH IN PK
SUBJECT: CHINA-INDIA DEFENSE TALKS BUILD CONFIDENCE, BUT
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE AFFECT ON BILATERAL ISSUES

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.
4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: The first Chinese-Indian "Annual Defense
Dialogue," held in November, and mid-December's planned joint
military exercises will bolster confidence in bilateral
relations, according to Chinese MFA officials and academics
and Indian Embassy officials. However, academics believe the
talks and exercise will have "no immediate effect" on
outstanding bilateral issues, nor will an improved
China-India military consultation eclipse China's
historically close military relations with Pakistan. End
Summary.


2. (U) Implementing a May 2006 bilateral MOU on military
exchanges and joint exercises, Chinese and Indian military
officials held their first "Annual Defense Dialogue" (ADD)
during the week of November 11-16. The talks set a tentative
schedule for the upcoming year's military-to-military
contacts, including high-level visits, exchange delegations
and student exchanges. According to press reports, Qian
Lihua, Director-General of the China's Ministry of National
Defense's Foreign Affairs Office and China's delegation head,
hosted India's delegation, led by Bimal Jhulka, Joint
Secretary of the Indian Ministry of Defense.

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3. (U) The ADD reached agreement on a joint military exercise
to be held near Kunming (Yunnan Province) in mid-December.
Approximately 100 troops from each side will participate in
what press reports describe as an "anti-terror scenario in a
mountainous region." Foreign Ministry spokesperson Liu
Jianchao said, "We hope this joint training can enhance
mutual understanding and friendship between the two armies
and enhance mutual trust."

Defense Dialogue: Confidence-Building Measure
--------------


4. (C) While minimizing the strategic importance of the ADD
and the follow-on military exercise, our Indian Embassy
interlocutor affirmed that the military talks serve as yet
another confidence-building measure between India and China.
Relations between the two militaries have been almost
non-existent, "so any little thing we do makes news." Our
Indian Embassy contact said that Chinese People's Liberation
Army strategic intentions toward India are often difficult to
discern, and India hopes the ADD mechanism will regularize
relations between the two militaries, allowing for better
exchange of information and transparency.


5. (C) Chinese South Asia scholars concurred with this
assessment. Ministry of State Security-affiliated China
Institutes for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)
South Asia scholar Hu Shisheng told us that the biggest
hurdle to better Chinese-Indian relations is the "mutual
trust deficit," and in that context the ADD serves as
"another channel to reduce mistrust." Hu said the ADD will
complement the efforts of an existing bilateral security
dialogue. (Note: Our Indian Embassy contact told us that
formal bilateral consultation mechanisms on security issues
are largely dormant.) Hu said the increased military
exchanges taking place through the ADD mechanism may also
help allay India's fears of China's intentions in the region.
"The Indians are very suspicious of China's relations with
India's neighbors," Hu added.


6. (C) As an aside, Hu commented that the current level of
mistrust between the Indian and Chinese militaries prevents
the kind of cooperation possible between the U.S. and Indian
militaries. (Note: While Professor Hu offered no specific
examples, recent Indian media reports confirm that India will
participate in the U.S. Air Force "Red Flag" exercise next
July, an exercise that, we understand, requires a level of
sophistication in military coordination much greater than the
planned December China-India military exercise.)

No immediate effect on bilateral issues
--------------


7. (C) Hu said the ADD will improve the "trust environment,"
but will have "no immediate effect" on outstanding bilateral
issues. In a separate conversation with PolOff,
MFA-affiliated China Institute of International Studies

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(CIIS) scholar Rong Ying likewise said that the ADD would
have no immediate effect on sensitive bilateral issues such
as the border dispute, but would serve to build mutual trust
between India and China.

Defense Dialogue no detriment to China-Pakistan relations
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8. (C) Hu said that while China looks to improve mil-mil
relations with India through this dialogue mechanism, closer
military ties to India will not eclipse Chinese-Pakistani
military relations, which are "one of the pillars" of China's
"all-weather friendship" relationship with Pakistan. Aware
of possible sensitivities in Pakistan, an MFA official at the
Asia Department Pakistan Office told us that Chinese
officials briefed Pakistan about the Chinese-Indian defense
dialogue prior to the November talks.
RANDT