CHINESE IRAN EXPERT SAYS PRC SEEKING OPPORTUNITIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 006638

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2027
TAGS: PREL PARM PTER TBIO MNUC XF IR CH
SUBJECT: CHINESE IRAN EXPERT SAYS PRC SEEKING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR MEDIATING ROLE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS

REF: BEIJING 05902

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Daniel Piccuta,
for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an October 11 People's Daily report,
China's former ambassador to Iran suggested the Six-Party
Talks model could be applied to the Iran nuclear issue but
that the United States would have to negotiate directly with
Iran. A Chinese researcher claimed to PolOff that Beijing is
seeking opportunities to play the role of mediator in the
crisis over Iran's nuclear program, should the right
conditions emerge. The scholar reiterated China's opposition
to sanctions, but said China has been urging Iran to show
flexibility and genuine cooperation with the IAEA. However,
he said that Beijing is also concerned that the "rights" of
Iran be respected. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) With recent news of progress in the Six-Party Talks on
the North Korea nuclear issue, the Chinese official press has
highlighted the possibility of using the Six-Party Talks
model as a way forward on the Iran nuclear problem. On the
front page of the October 11 overseas edition of the
CCP-affiliated People's Daily, former Chinese Ambassador to
Iran Hua Liming suggested that the Six-Party Talks model
could be applied the Iran case, but stressed that the United
States would have to show more flexibility, especially in
accepting direct negotiation with Iran. Hua asserted that
the ultimate goal of the United States is regime change in
Iran, and fears the U.S. has already dismissed the
effectiveness of negotiation and will rely on sanctions and,
if necessary, military force.


3. (C) Reftel outlined the debate within China policy circles
on how to deal with Iran, including Hua's position that the
Iran nuclear situation represents a strategic opportunity for
Chinese diplomatic intervention. In a recent conversation
with PolOff, Li Guofu, Director of the Center for Middle East
Studies at the MFA-affiliated China Institute for
International Studies (CIIS),detailed his belief that China
is interested in playing an intermediary role in the
conflict, but only if the right conditions emerge. (Note:
Li, who visited Iran this summer, is a well-known
establishment figure in the Chinese academic world with close
ties to the Foreign Ministry and receives a stipend from the
State Council in recognition of his "exceptional
contributions.")

China as intermediary?
--------------


4. (C) Beijing increasingly believes it has the potential to
act as mediator in the conflict between the United States and
Iran over Iran's nuclear program and is stepping up efforts
to push both sides for dialogue, Li claimed. Li said the
concept put forth by Ambassador Hua (reftel) (i.e., that the
crisis represents a strategic opportunity for China to play a
more active role in the Middle East) is increasingly the
"mainstream" approach at the MFA. Beijing, according to Li,
can support any deal to which both Iran and the EU can agree
and is thus well placed to mediate. Li said that the Iran
nuclear issue is a dilemma for the PRC, which aims to
maintain good relations with both Iran and the West, claiming
that PRC policy-makers are "waiting for an opportunity to
take initiative to provide the needed framework" to resolve
the crisis.


5. (C) However, Li asserted, China is not yet ready to risk
its credibility and directly mediate the conflict without
indications from both sides that they are willing to
compromise. China's view is that when Iran shows
flexibility, as it did with the IAEA Plan of Action, it
should see rewards as an incentive to continue cooperation.
Li claimed to have raised the concept of Chinese intervention
on the nuclear issue with official contacts in Iran during
his visit earlier in the year and reported that they
expressed willingness for China to play such a role. Li
added that he told his Iranian contacts that they would need
to show readiness to make concessions in order to see
progress, stressing that the PRC would expect "new ideas"
from Iran on how to resolve the crisis. Li added that
Beijing would want to see signs of increased willingness to
compromise from the United States and the EU before proposing
a formal framework.


Beijing to Iran: Be cooperative
--------------


6. (C) Beijing, Li claimed, does not believe that past

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sanctions have had any influence over Iran's behavior, and
future ones would similarly fail. Rather, Li reported,
Chinese diplomats have told their Iranian counterparts that
previous rounds of sanctions are best seen as a demonstration
of the seriousness with which the international community
takes the issue. They have urged the Iranians to show
flexibility and sincere cooperation with the IAEA. According
to Li, Beijing perceives that the United States has shown
increased flexibility on the issue, which Beijing believes
strengthens its hand when urging the Iranians to cooperate.

Respecting Iran's "Rights"
--------------


7. (C) Nevertheless, Li maintained that Beijing believes that
the "rights of Iran must be respected." Chinese
policy-makers view the new Iran-IAEA Plan of Action as a
positive step toward increased transparency and an indication
of Iran's willingness to "clear up outstanding issues." Li
stressed that Iran should be allowed to have small-scale
enrichment activities for research purposes, as this does not
violate international law, adding that Beijing is suspicious
of the U.S. view that a nuclear India is acceptable but a
nuclear Iran is not.

Nuclear weapon would decrease Iranian security
-------------- -


8. (C) Based on his conversations with Iranian officials, Li
insisted, Iran does not, in fact, want to create a nuclear
weapon. He cautioned, however, that this only represents his
personal viewpoint. He claimed that Iran only seeks the
technology to build a bomb as a form of deterrence, critical
for regime survival as well as a key bargaining chip to use
to reach Iran's fundamental goal of reestablishing relations
with the United States. Iran understands that actually
constructing a bomb, Li said, would dramatically weaken
Iran's security position, isolating it from the rest of the
world and possibly provoking a military response from the
United States.

Piccuta