DESPITE POTENTIAL HICCUPS, PRC PUSHES FOR IMPROVED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 005977

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JN IN
SUBJECT: DESPITE POTENTIAL HICCUPS, PRC PUSHES FOR IMPROVED
JAPAN TIES

REF: A. FBIS CPP20070825968093

B. BEIJING 5749

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs
Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In the wake of Japanese PM Abe's September 12
resignation, his earlier cabinet reshuffle, landmark August
visit to India and multilateral naval exercises, Embassy
contacts underscored China's continued desire to improve
China-Japan relations. Neither Abe's resignation nor his
recent cabinet reshuffle will impact the warming "trend" in
bilateral relations, MFA officials said. Chinese contacts
did express concerns about Abe's remarks to the Indian
Parliament calling for the creation of an "Arc of Freedom and
Prosperity" in Asia and subsequent naval exercises in the Bay
of Bengal. However, the Chinese government did not share its
views with the Japanese Embassy in Beijing. Both Japanese
and Chinese contacts emphasized the PRC government's effort
to move the relationship forward, despite some challenges
posed by Chinese public opinion. A Yasukuni shrine visit
would be, and the East China Sea issue could be, a stumbling
block to warming ties. End Summary.

Views from Beijing on Abe's Resignation
--------------


2. (C) MFA Asian Affairs Department Japan Division Second
Secretary Liu Hong predicted to Poloff on September 12 that

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PM Abe's resignation will not have a major impact on
bilateral ties. Warming relations have already become a
"trend," and barring a major development there "will not be a
fundamental change" in the relationship. When asked about a
possible replacement, Liu cited media reports suggesting
former FM Taro Aso may take over. University of Shizuoka
Professor Hajime Izumi, participating in a seminar in Beijing
on China-Japan relations, told Poloff on September 12 that
the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee International
Department (CCID) officials expressed "shock" at Abe's
decision to resign. However, Izumi said, both he and his
CCID interlocutors believe that warming bilateral relations
will continue even without Abe. (Note: Izumi speculated that
the timing of Abe's resignation was due to a serious stomach
ailment.)


3. (C) Peking University Professor and Japan scholar Liang
Yunxiang agreed on September 12 that Abe's resignation would
not have a major influence on bilateral ties. Abe's
resignation was not unexpected, Liang said; the possibility
existed since the LDP's upper house loss. Aso's selection
would not in itself have a positive influence on the
relationship given Aso's conservative credentials. Liang
said Abe was probably a bit better for Sino-Japanese ties,
but Abe and Aso have similar political views. Like Abe, Aso
is a realist. In Liang's estimation, Aso will probably not
visit Yasukuni Shrine. China Foreign Affairs University
Japan Policy Studies Director Zhou Yongsheng agreed, saying
Aso would be a "little worse" than Abe for Sino-Japanese
ties, but can also be expected to "take a realist road."
Whoever is the next prime minister, Liang said, will probably
be invited to China this year, provided the new leader does
not visit Yasukuni.

Selective Restraint
--------------


4. (C) Other recent events that had the potential to derail
warming ties were met with Chinese restraint. Japanese
diplomats told us they were surprised that China made no
formal remonstration after Abe's visit to India, particularly
following his remarks to the Indian Parliament calling for
the creation of an "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" in Asia.
Japanese Embassy First Secretary Akira Yokochi told Poloff on
August 22 that there was also no reaction from the Chinese on
the quadrilateral relationship ("Quad") developing between
India, Japan, Australia and the United States. He emphasized
the "calm attitude" of the PRC leadership in this 35th
anniversary year of the Japan-China relationship. Counselor
Namazu said separately that on August 29 there has been no
direct response from the Chinese on either the India trip or
the naval exercises between the United States, Japan,
Australia, India and Singapore. He did remark to us on
September 7 that Indian PM Singh told Abe of Chinese pressure
on the "Quad" i
ssue.


5. (C) MFA Asian Affairs Department Japan Division Deputy
Director Lu Guijun told us on August 30 that he was hesitant
to comment on Abe's trip to India, saying only that "China

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paid close attention" to the visit. He referred Poloff to
the MFA spokesperson's comments on Abe's visit with the son
of deceased War Crimes Tribunal Justice Pal (Ref A). (Note:
Pal was a dissenting judge in the war crimes trials that
convicted Japanese leaders after WWII.) Asked about the
"Quad" issue, Lu replied that cooperation has been the trend
in East Asia, and all parties are working hard to increase
cooperation. He hopes that counties will not engender
"estrangement" or "misunderstanding." Japan's "Arc of
Freedom and Prosperity" represents "Cold War thinking" and is
not beneficial to mutual trust or China-Japan relations, he
stressed. Military exercises should benefit regional
stability, and China does not want other countries' military
cooperation to influence its own relationships. China has
not "judged" whether the "Quad" will do that or not, but the
PRC hopes that it will not. China will continue to monitor
the situation, Lu said.


6. (C) China Foreign Affairs University Japan Policy Studies
Director Zhou expressed concern about the quadrilateral
relationship, stating that the grouping is meant to encircle,
constrict and isolate China. While the "Quad" professes it
is "counterterrorist" in nature, it is actually aimed at
China, he claimed. Japan's proposed "Arc of Freedom and
Prosperity" is meant to encircle the DPRK, Russia and China.
Japan wants to isolate China because it fears a strong China.
On the other hand, Peking University Professor Liang said
China is sensitive to talk of the "Arc of Freedom and
Prosperity," but most Chinese do not think it is realistic.
He stressed that Japan does not have the same ability as the
United States to organize such a multilateral group. If the
United States were more actively calling for the "Quad," that
would push China closer toward Russia, he said.

No Reshuffle Kerfuffle
--------------


7. (C) Our Chinese interlocutors believe that Abe's recent
Japanese Cabinet reshuffle also will not impact warming
bilateral ties. Abe's choice of ministers "would not change"
Sino-Japanese relations, MFA Asian Affairs Department Japan
Division Deputy Director Lu Guijun told us on August 30.
Both sides will continue to take measures to improve the
relationship, he said. Japan expert Zhou said that new
Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Machimura opposed former
PM Koizumi visiting Yasukuni Shrine during his last tenure as
foreign minister. The new Minister of Defense Komura
"understands China," he added. Japanese Embassy Counselor
Hiroyoku Namazu told us on August 29 that he believes the new
foreign minister will be influential and capable. He is
"more of a realist than Koizumi," Namazu stated, referring to
Machimura's August 27 pledge that he would not visit Yasukuni
so long as he is foreign minister.

China Desires to Improve Ties, Nurture Public Opinion
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Japanese Embassy First Secretary Yujiro Hayashi noted
on September 6 that China is keen to improve the bilateral
relationship and is trying not to upset it. Many issues from
previous years are not coming up this year, he said. In
Yokochi's estimation, China seeks to improve relations with
Japan within the framework of a larger "all-directional"
diplomatic policy. China wants productive relations with all
countries because it needs to concentrate its resources on
crucial domestic issues, such as the 17th Party Congress, the
Olympics and the Shanghai Expo. China's decisions,
therefore, will necessarily have its domestic constituency in
mind, he said.


9. (C) Japan expert Zhou said that most young Chinese "hate
Japan." However, since Abe took office, Beijing has begun
touting positive aspects of Japan to overcome these negative
feelings. Chinese public responses to Abe's visiting Justice
Pal's son and offering a small tree to Yasukuni were "low
key." Zhou estimates that the government will not overly
propagandize issues like these. He suggested that China may
even put more Japanese television shows and movies on the air
to improve public opinion. Beijing is being careful in its
reaction to events like the Quad and Abe's trip in the hope
of changing Japanese views of China, Zhou said. China
particularly wants to counter fears of the "China threat" in
Japan. This was the primary intent of Minister of National
Defense Cao Gangchuan's recent trip to Japan, he noted.
However, the Japanese government's actions can also influence
Chinese public opinion, Zhou cautioned, stressing that a
visit to Yasukuni would cause problems.


10. (C) Professor Liang said China has made a strategic
decision to improve bilateral relations with Japan. China
will cooperate irrespective of who is the prime minister of
Japan as long as the new leader does not visit Yasukuni

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Shrine. Regardless of whether the two countries have
political differences, a close and deep economic relationship
is developing, he stated.

East China Sea
--------------


11. (C) In addition to a Yasukuni visit, the territorial
dispute in the East China Sea could also sink warming
bilateral ties, some of our contacts reported. (Note:
Counselor Namazu confided to Poloff that a date for the next
round of talks has not been announced, but they will likely
take place on September 21 in Beijing. MOFA DG Kenichiro
Sasae will lead the Japanese delegation.) First Secretary
Yokochi told Poloff that while he is pessimistic about a
quick resolution of the issue, he believes the two countries'
leaders may be able to settle the dispute politically. He
did not believe this could be achieved in talks at the
director general-level, though. Hayashi said the East China
Sea issue is the major bilateral issue to be resolved, a
sentiment also expressed by Professor Zhou. Zhou predicted
that bilateral relations could worsen if resolution proves
problematic. Liang was more optimistic, saying a
breakthrough is possible because both sides agree in
principle on a way forward. Echoing this view, Professor
Izumi noted that both countries believe this issue is
manageable and recognize that reaching a final resolution
will take time.
Randt