CZECH DEPUTY FM VISITS BEIJING, DEFENDS U.S.-CZECH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 004740

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2017
TAGS: PARM NATO UNSC IR CZ CH
SUBJECT: CZECH DEPUTY FM VISITS BEIJING, DEFENDS U.S.-CZECH
MISSILE DEFENSE PLANS

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR AUBREY CARLSON, REASONS 1.4
B AND D.


1. (C) Summary: Czech Republic First Deputy Foreign Minister
Tomas Pojar defended the Czech Republic's negotiations with
the United States on participation in a U.S. or NATO missile
defense system in a July 18 speech in Beijing. He said the
Czech Republic's discussions with the United States on basing
a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic are based on
the belief that Iran poses a real threat to Czech security in
the medium term, and that the Czech Republic believes that a
missile defense system that covers only North America would
damage NATO and EU security. He described Russian objections
to the Czech Republic's participation as "contradictory"
because the Russians stress both the destabilizing nature of
a NATO (or U.S.) missile defense system in Europe and the
ease with which any infrastructure on Czech territory could
be destroyed. Asked about Czech public opinion of the
possibility of siting a missile defense radar on Czech soil,
DFM Pojar acknowledged that 60 percent of Czech citizens
oppose it, but said that the issue is a relatively low
priority for Czech citizens, and the Czech government plans
to "educate" them. End Summary.

Speech at CIIS on U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Cooperation
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Visiting Czech First Deputy Foreign Minister Tomas
Pojar gave a speech July 18 to about 30 Chinese MFA arms
control officials, think tank scholars and third-country
ambassadors at the China Institute of International Studies
(CIIS),an MFA-affiliated think tank. The subject of the
speech was "The Czech Republic's Cooperation with the United
States on Missile Defense." DFM Pojar spoke extemporaneously
in English and answered several questions from the audience.


3. (C) Prior to the speech, Czech Ambassador Vitezslav Grepl
told Poloff that the primary purpose of DFM Pojar's visit is
to advocate for China's support for the Czech Republic's bid
for a 2008-2009 UN Security Council seat. Chinese officials
expressed intense interest in the Czech Republic's possible
participation in a U.S. or NATO missile defense system in
Europe and asked for a more detailed briefing on the
discussions. This was the genesis of the speech at CIIS, he
said.


4. (C) In his speech, DFM Pojar said he is the primary
negotiator for the Czech Republic in its negotiations with
the United States over the possible siting of a missile
defense radar installation on Czech soil. The final
decision, he emphasized, will have to be made by the Czech
Parliament, per the Czech Constitution, and with that in mind
the Czech government has decided to be as open and
transparent as possible about the negotiations, and about the
Czech Republic's interests in the matter.

Missile Defense Necessary to Guard Against Iran
-------------- --


5. (C) DFM Pojar said he believes that a missile defense
system incorporating a radar in the Czech Republic and 10
interceptors in Poland would strengthen the capacity and
capability of NATO to deal with a missile threat from the
Middle East, particularly Iran. He said he believes that
such a system will be built one way or the other; the only
variable is whether the territory protected is North America
only or includes Europe as well.


6. (C) DFM Pojar told Poloff the issue of the DPRK came up in
his meetings with Chinese officials. The DPRK represents "no
primary threat" to the Czech Republic, but the possibility
that the DPRK will supply nuclear weapons to the Middle East,
specifically Iran, is "a great fear." In his speech, he said
Iran is the Czech Republic's biggest missile-related worry.
Iran's "past, present and future plans" represent a serious
threat to Europe and a reason to "bulk up" purely defensive
systems such as the missile defense system currently under
discussion. Possible future instability in Pakistan leading
to the loss of control of missiles or nuclear weapons is
another threat to consider.


BEIJING 00004740 002 OF 002



7. (C) Alternative proposals to base radar and interceptor
stations in "the northwest or southeast" are not workable, he
explained. Siting the facilities in northwestern Europe
would leave central Europe unprotected, and siting them in
the Caucasus region would be "technologically ineffective."


8. (C) In response to a question from the Deputy Director
General of the PRC Arms Control and Disarmament Association,
another think tank partially affiliated with the MFA, DFM
Pojar admitted that the Czech Republic and Russia have
fundamental disagreements over the degree of the current
threat from the Middle East and the potential for strategic
imbalance created by the missile defense system. "We cannot
rule out a missile threat from Iran within the next ten
years," DFM Pojar said, "and we recognize that it will take
five years or more to make the missile defense system
operational." The Russians claim that a missile threat from
the Middle East is not realistic for decades, at least. DFM
Pojar said he explained to the Russians that the small-scale
missile defense system envisioned would only be able to
destroy a few incoming missiles and therefore would have no
effect on Russia's strategic forces.

Czech Interests
--------------


9. (C) The Czech Republic believes that the United States
plans to build a missile defense network no matter what
Europe decides about its own participation, Pojar said. A
system that protects only one side of the Atlantic, leaving
the United States and Canada secure but Europe vulnerable, is
clearly not in NATO's interests. The Czech Republic relies
100 percent on NATO for its security, and wants to see it
strong. He added, "We want to cooperate with the United
States to ensure that if multiple missiles are launched, the
one headed for Prague is among the first destroyed."

Russian Opposition Logic is "Contradictory"
--------------


10. (C) DFM Pojar characterized the Russian arguments as
contradictory. The Russians, he said, claim that the
proposed system is "strategically destabilizing." They also
claim that it will never work, and that if it does work, the
Russian military can easily destroy the installations on
Czech soil in the event of a conflict. If the system is both
fragile and unlikely to work, he said, how can it contribute
to strategic instability? Mutually assured nuclear
destruction would not be affected by ten interceptors in
Poland. Asked by a Chinese audience member if the U.S.-Czech
negotiations are responsible for "serious measures of
retaliation" from Russia, DFM Pojar said Russian
intransigence on the Kosovo question, Russian forces in
Moldova and Georgia and "incidents" in Estonia show that
Russian "measures" are independent of his negotiations with
the United States.

Major Obstacle is Czech Public Opinion
--------------


11. (C) The major obstacle to a radar site in the Czech
Republic is popular opposition, he said. Polls have shown 60
percent of Czech citizens are against hosting a U.S. radar
site, with 25-30 percent in favor. This is normal public
opposition to military installations in a time of peace, DFM
Pojar said, and lags far behind jobs, education and social
issues on the public's priority list. He hopes to be able to
"educate" the public on the issue and win their support. No
matter what the outcome of the USG-Czech negotiations over
the radar and a Status of Forces Agreement, the final
decision belongs to the Czech Parliament. Wild rumors about
the proposal, such as one saying a nuclear reactor will be
built next to the radar site to provide power, are rampant,
he said, and "coordinated" by those opposed to the missile
defense plan.
RANDT