CHINESE OFFICIAL POLLING: SURVEY SAYS, YOU'RE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000411

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2032
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KCUL SOCI CH
SUBJECT: CHINESE OFFICIAL POLLING: SURVEY SAYS, YOU'RE
FIRED!

Classified By: Political Section Internal Unit Chief Susan A. Thornton.

Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Chinese Government at various levels is
increasingly turning to opinion polling to measure public
satisfaction with officials' performances and with provision
of social services. The Ministry of Supervision (the
Government analog to the Party's Central Discipline
Inspection Commission or anti-corruption entity) is pushing
localities to embrace a 2006 Central Organization Department
regulation mandating that polling results figure in the
annual assessments of local government operations, said
Victor Yuan (protect),president of the Horizon public
opinion firm. Although official polling aims to assess how
efficiently and productively government departments operate
rather than target individual leaders, the phenomenon of poor
ratings resulting in the removal or early retirement of
cadres at the city and county levels is becoming more
widespread. Measuring the success of the Central
Government's social programs is problematic and a
quantifiable definition of the "harmonious society" concept
remains elusive, Yuan said. An effort to set benchmarks of
harmoniousness by the Beijing City Government ended in
confusion and division. End Summary.

Polling Is Popular
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2. (C) In a conversation with poloffs on January 17, Yuan
related that the Central Organization Department mandated
early last year that, starting in 2006, local governments are
required to use public opinion polling results to help assess
the performance of their various departments, such as local
health and housing bureaus. The Ministry of Supervision is
pushing the policy, urging cities and counties to develop
useful surveys, Yuan said. The regulation specifies,
however, that the results and method do not have to be open
to the public. As a result, the demand for polling has
soared, Yuan remarked, and many local Governments have
developed online public opinion surveys (some 34 percent of
county-level and above governments have web pages). Most
observers agree, however, that the data gleaned from online
questionnaires are suspect because there is little oversight,
voting is not transparent and ballot-stuffing occurs
regularly.


3. (C) The weight of polling results in the annual
assessments has increased, Yuan said. The Central Government
has launched many new initiatives in social realms in recent
years, particularly in education, health care and the
environment. The leadership is attempting to figure out a
way to accurately measure and monitor the progress, while
also gauging good governance. The phenomenon of poor ratings
resulting in the removal or early retirement of officials at
the city and county levels is becoming more widespread, Yuan
said. For example, in the Shunyi district of Beijing, the
local government conducts annual surveys rating various
departments. If a department finishes at the bottom in terms
of public approval for three straight years, then its head is
fired or demoted. At the same time, the heads of the top
five departments must record a video for distribution among
officials in which they share their words of wisdom.


4. (C) In a separate conversation, Wang Xixin (protect),
Professor at Beijing University's Center for Public
Participation Studies and Support, echoed Yuan's assessment
of the newfound importance China's leadership places on
public opinion. Chinese cadres focus more on public opinion
than leaders of perhaps any other country in the world, Wang
claimed. This attention is a direct refletion of the
leadership's lack of confidence in its own legitimacy, he
asserted. One example of sensitivity to public opinion, Wang
said, was the recent decision not to raise train ticket
prices during the 2007 Chinese New Year, due to public
complaints about price gouging during China's annual holiday
travel rush.

In Search of Impartiality
--------------


5. (C) The National Statistics Bureau (NSB) has established
a National Public Polling Center (NPPC) to conduct and
promote public opinion surveys. A prime function of the NPPC
is to canvass Party members about their "basic thinking,"
Yuan remarked, although he said he has no information about
the content or results of such inquiries. He specified that,
as a general rule, official polling aims to assess how

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efficiently and productively government departments operate
rather than target individual leaders. Nonetheless, Horizon
has embarked on a three-year project that uses polling to
assess the performance of 10 provincial governors. To build
trust with officials and to smooth out any methodological
kinks, Horizon will not publicly release any of the results
the first year. But next year, Yuan plans to release the
names of the governors whose provinces were surveyed as well
as any positive findings. The year after that, Yuan intends
to publicize all the information.


6. (C) Government offices often prefer to employ Horizon to
conduct their polling rather than the NPPC, Yuan judged,
because Horizon is viewed as more objective. NPPC is prone
to influence from "stronger" ministries, such as the Ministry
of Public Security or the Tax Bureau, and other officials,
who have been known to convince the NPPC to doctor their
results, Yuan related. (Note: One Embassy contact alleged
that NPPC doctoring of unfavorable survey data for the
Shanghai Government was one of the reasons for the recent
sacking of NSB head Qiu Xiaohua, who has been detained on
corruption charges. End note.) Horizon, as an independent
organization, is less vulnerable to such influences and is
more likely to paint an accurate picture of public opinion,
even if the verdict is not entirely positive.

How Do You Quantify Harmoniousness?
--------------


7. (C) Provision of social security is the area where
officials are most interested in seeking measurements of
performance, particularly in terms of pensions, unemployment
benefits, housing and medical care, Yuan said. Progress has
been slow in all of these areas. Only two percent of the
Chinese public is receiving support in all social security
categories, and more than 50 percent get nothing. Such
statistics cause concern about stability among leaders at all
levels. Against this backdrop, Horizon has conducted no
polling on how the leadership's harmonious society concept is
being received. In Yuan's view, however, the harmonious
society slogan is failing to resonate, particularly among
decisionmakers. A key criticism is that the concept is too
vague, that a harmonious society, like the New Socialist
Countryside, is difficult to define or quantify. Yuan
related that in 2006 he participated in a meeting that Liu
Qi, the Beijing Party Secretary, convened with scholars to
discuss the harmonious society concept. The goal was to
devise tangible measures so that the Government could set
(and reach) objectives and claim success, making Beijing a
national model of harmoniousness. Liu Qi and the other
officials went away more confused than when they arrived.
Yuan said participants could not reach agreement on any
benchmarks.


8. (C) One particularly contentious issue centered around
how the capital should treat its surging population of
migrant workers. Some scholars urged Liu to make Beijing a
more hospitable place for the mobile workforce and their
families, expanding social services for them and removing
some of the institutional barriers, such as residence permit
requirements, that keep migrants in legal limbo. But other
scholars warned against easing policies, arguing that
longstanding Beijing citizens would react negatively to a
more welcoming policy. People worry that an influx of poor
newcomers will burden infrastructure and reduce quality of
life. Schools that open their doors to migrant children
often then hemorrhage regular resident children whose parents
worry about a deterioration of academic standards. Neither
scenario is a picture of harmoniousness, Yuan observed.
RANDT