Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BEIJING399
2007-01-17 13:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

MILITARY THINK TANKERS STRESS TAIWAN CONCERNS TO

Tags:  PREL ASEC KOLY CH TW KN JA KS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0168
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #0399/01 0171316
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 171316Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3922
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000399 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2027
TAGS: PREL ASEC KOLY CH TW KN JA KS
SUBJECT: MILITARY THINK TANKERS STRESS TAIWAN CONCERNS TO
EAP PDAS STEPHENS


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David Sedney. Reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 000399

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2027
TAGS: PREL ASEC KOLY CH TW KN JA KS
SUBJECT: MILITARY THINK TANKERS STRESS TAIWAN CONCERNS TO
EAP PDAS STEPHENS


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David Sedney. Reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Academics from military-related think tanks stressed
to EAP PDAS Kathleen Stephens that Taiwan remains the most
important security issue in the U.S.-China relationship.
Following an overwhelming stress on Taiwan, they also noted
North Korea, security for the Olympics and potential
differences with Japan in the East China Sea as additional
concerns, but asserted that these problems cannot compare
to Taiwan's potential for disrupting U.S.-China relations.
One scholar emphasized dangers to the relationship stemming
from attempts by third parties, in both the cases of Taiwan
and North Korea, to exacerbate differences between the
United States and China and stressed the need for continued
close coordination to prevent this. PDAS Stephens noted
that United States policy on Taiwan has been clear and
consistent and that we have made clear our opposition to
changes in the status quo. She noted the need for quick
progress in negotiations with the DPRK and urged China to
compel the North Koreans to take the talks more seriously.
In response to the PDAS's question about China's foreign
policy ambitions, the scholars downplayed China's global
role, describing China as a "responsible constructive
cooperator" and stressing the need for Chinese to address
domestic challenges and work toward global stability. End
summary.

Taiwan
--------------


2. (C) During an informal dinner with Chinese military and
academic security specialists at the DCM's Residence, PDAS
Stephens solicited Chinese views on security concerns,
urged China to do more to persuade North Korea to engage
seriously in negotiations and asked about China's vision
for a more global foreign policy. Leading off the
discussion, PLA-affiliated China Institute for
International Strategic Studies (CIISS) scholar Gong
Xiantian (a General who was formerly posted as China's DATT
in Washington) stated that Taiwan is the main security

issue in U.S.-China relations and underlined that Chen
Shui-bian's pursuit of de jure independence for Taiwan
would present serious challenges to U.S.-China relations if
not prevented. Chen will attempt to exploit potential
differences between the United States and China over the
definition of Taiwan independence in order to involve the
United States in the problem, Gong warned. For example,
Chen will use the notion of a "Second Republic"
Constitution to avoid declaring independence or crossing
clear U.S. red lines, while at the same time using this
concept to trumpet the accomplishment of de jure
independence in the media. This would be a serious problem
for the Mainland, Gong said.


3. (C) Academy of Military Science's (AMS) Major General
Peng Guangqian agreed that Taiwan is the paramount security
issue between the United States and China, suggesting that
while Beijing can manage and control other potential
security problems, the Taiwan issue is beyond the power of
Beijing to control. He expressed concern that Chen Shui-
bian will use tactics similar to those employed in his
February 2006 decision to "cease the functioning of" the
National Unification Council and Guidelines, which Peng
posited could lead to a crisis in U.S.-China relations.


4. (C) PLA-affiliated Foundation for International
Strategic Studies (FISS) scholar Zhang Tuosheng added that
while long-term prospects for cross-Strait stability are
positive, China worries that, in the short-term, Chen Shui-
bian will try to incorporate the "two-state theory" into
the Constitution in a way that will bring pressure on the
Mainland to act. People will claim that such an action
violates the Anti-Secession Law, but if Beijing counters
with a strong response, this will create problems in U.S.-
China relations, Zhang stated. Currently, there are three
schools of thought in China about the near-term cross-
Strait situation. The first says that time is on Beijing's
side and the Mainland must continue to be patient. The
second views the current period as one of "great danger."
The third school believes long-term trends are on the
Mainland's side, but sees danger in the short-term. China
and the United States should continue to have frequent
discussions and keep a watchful eye on the issue.


BEIJING 00000399 002 OF 003



5. (C) CIISS scholar Chen Wei reiterated the sensitivity
of the coming year in dealing with the Taiwan issue. The
stability of U.S.-China relations is important to the
security of the entire region and the world. Vigilance and
close communication on Taiwan will be the key to
maintaining stability in the bilateral relationship in the
coming year, he said. Chen rejected attempts to move the
discussion off the Taiwan dime and he and the others
returned to and stressed the Taiwan theme relentlessy.


6. (C) President of te Ministry of State Security-
affiliated Chnese Institute of Contemporary International
elations (CICIR) Cui Liru noted that Chen Shui-ian is
adept at using salami tactics to bump up against any "red
lines" which, in this situation, are necessarily ill-
defined. If the situation reaches a "red line," it may be
too late to prevent conflict. This would be a disaster for
the United States and China. This is why China is so
alarmed about Chen's possible moves and tries to warn the
United States first, Cui stated. China is aware that a
harsh Mainland reaction will strengthen Chen's hand
domestically and that a softer policy is more effective.
Chen is also aware of this, however, and looks to provoke a
Mainland reaction, he said.


7. (C) PDAS Stephens repeated and reaffirmed the United
States' consistent policy on Taiwan, noting that the policy
has dealt effectively with the issue to date. Economic and
cultural ties between Taiwan and the Mainland are improving
and the United States encourages continued improvement and
dialogue. The United States and China have a common
interest in preserving cross-Strait stability and in
continuing to be patient, she stated.

North Korea
--------------


8. (C) Cui turned to the topic of North Korea, noting that
aside from Taiwan, potential instability on the Korean
Peninsula is a major concern for China. China welcomes the
prospect of resumption of U.S.-DPRK consultations on
financial issues, he noted. PDAS Stephens noted that the
United States is prepared to discuss financial measures,
but if the DPRK continues to stonewall in implementing the
September 2005 agreement on denuclearization, it will be a
problem for all the parties. Cui said China noticed the
seriousness of the United States during the last round of
the Six-Party Talks and believes North Korea may also be
serious.


9. (C) Gong added that instability on the Korean Peninsula
is the greatest external security facing China. (Taiwan is
an internal threat, he said.) North Korea is currently in
a difficult position. It is struggling hard over how to
proceed. There is the danger that Pyongyang may be tempted
to again play a provocative card such as a nuclear test.
Previously, China did not believe such threats were
serious, but now the United States and China have more
common ground. Asked about the state of China-DPRK mil-mil
relations, Gong said that they have certainly been affected
by the changed relations between the two countries. Zhang
added that China does not want to see North Korea and Iran
become nuclear powers, in part because it will greatly
diminish leverage over countries like Japan to remain non-
nuclear. If North Korea tests another nuclear weapon,
China's situation will become more difficult, he said.

China's Growing Influence
--------------


10. (C) Asked about China's growing international profile
and foreign policy vision, Chen Wei asserted that Deng
Xiaoping's concept of keeping a low profile in
international affairs is no longer the sine qua non of
Chinese foreign policy. After some debate over the
intentions behind Deng's formulation and criticism of the
common English translation "hiding one's light and biding
one's time," scholars downplayed the significance of the
formulation, noting that it was meant, at the time, to
allow China to avoid diverting attention from its domestic
development. Following the 1980s and 90s when China
strengthened its relations with Western countries, some
criticized China's neglect of its traditional friends in
the Third World, FISS's Zhang said. For this reason and
because China seeks resources, including oil, for its
continued rapid development, Beijing has been moving to
strengthen relations with Africa, Latin America and other
countries. Building good relations with developing

BEIJING 00000399 003 OF 003


countries is a long-term strategy for China, he stressed,
not just a short-term tactic. China sees itself as a
developing country that has increasing influence in the
world, but that remains a regional power. China does not
have hegemonistic ambitions, he said.


11. (C) Gong said that China views itself as an active
participant in the international system. Some refer to
China as a "responsible constructive cooperator" in the
international system, he said, meaning that China advocates
actions that are positive for humanity and foster a
"harmonious world." Building up relations with Africa and
Latin America is symptomatic of China's efforts to
diversify its foreign relations.

Olympics and Terrorist Threats
--------------


12. (C) CICIR's Cui posited that, aside from Taiwan, the
most direct security threat that China currently faces is
countering terrorist threats to the 2008 Olympics. There
are threats from both internal and external terrorist
groups, Cui said, but he downplayed the likelihood of
threats emanating from disaffected groups within China.
China's internal political situation is "greatly improved,"
he claimed, adding that the Chinese government should be
more confident in projecting its problems and
accomplishments. China is in a transition and needs to
deal with economic disparities and a host of other
problems. As seen by the recent revisions to regulations
for foreign journalists, however, the Government believes
that outsiders will understand that China is working on
these problems and that knowing more about China's
shortcomings is not a problem. Rather, problems come from
others knowing too little about China.

Japan and the East China Sea
--------------


13. (C) Another possible security threat, according to
Zhang, stems from the fragile situation in the East China
Sea. While China's relations with Japan have improved
somewhat in recent months, unresolved territorial disputes
and conflicting maritime interests still hold the potential
for problems. Japanese companies that had begun
exploration for energy resources on the Chinese side of the
so-called mid-line have pulled back and are now in
negotiations, he noted. If negotiations do not make
progress, however, or if an incident occurs as a result of
the increased number of planes and ships in the region,
this could lead to difficulties. China does not have
maritime consultations with Japan as it does with the
United States, he noted. Asked for the Chinese reaction to
the change in the name of Japan's Defense Ministry, Zhang
said that the change in the name was not a serious issue.
However, if there are attempts to change Article 9 of the
Constitution, China would have concerns.


14. (U) PDAS Stephens cleared this message.
RANDT