BEIJING LEADERSHIP AND REFORMERS BOTH KEEP CLOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001596

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2032
TAGS: PHUM PGOV CH HK
SUBJECT: BEIJING LEADERSHIP AND REFORMERS BOTH KEEP CLOSE
EYE ON HONG KONG'S CE ELECTION

REF: A. A) HONG KONG 603

B. B) FBIS CPP20070307072012

Classified By: Classified by Political Internal Unit Chief Susan
Thornton. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Summary. Despite another round of warnings
from National People's Congress (NPC) Chairman Wu
Bangguo on "ensuring a smooth election" for Hong Kong
Chief Executive on March 25, Beijing-based reformers
continue to watch the Hong Kong process with an eye
toward implications for China's own political reform
prospects, according to contacts. The lively pre-
election debate (in Cantonese) held on March 1 in Hong
Kong was not broadcast live in Beijing, but was
mentioned in coverage by Phoenix TV, the March 2 issue
of the People's Daily and was available on the
internet on the Mainland. Following the initial
straight coverage of the debate in People's Daily
which favored neither candidate, Xinhua reports run by
most major news outlets focused on the minimal effect
the debate had on continuing majority support for
incumbent CE Donald Tsang and on the Hong Kong
people's "ability to distinguish between a good
debater and a good administrator." Despite the
limited coverage and the knowledge that there will
likely be no surprises, politically astute Mainlanders
will clearly have an eye on Hong Kong come March 25.
End Summary.


2. (C) Media reported that NPC Chairman Wu Bangguo
urged Hong Kong National People's Congress delegates
during a March 7 discussion session to elect a
"patriotic" Chief Executive and that the central
government affirmed the work of Donald Tsang and his
administration (ref b). While most believe that the
March 25 indirect election for Chief Executive in Hong
Kong will bring no surprises, the Chinese leadership
is leaving little doubt about their preferred outcome.
Despite this, Beijing's political reform circles and
others are paying close attention to the Hong Kong CE
election as a harbinger of future political reform
prospects for the Mainland.

Mainland Media, Internet Cover Debate
--------------


3. (C) In this context, the lively March 1 debate in
Hong Kong (ref a) between Tsang and his rival for the
CE post, Alan Leong, was welcomed by Beijing's
political elite, according to several local contacts.
The debate (in Cantonese) was not broadcast live in
Beijing, but was mentioned in coverage by Phoenix TV,
the March 2 issue of the People's Daily and was
available on the internet on the Mainland. Lawyer
Wang Xuelan, whose father is a former Supreme Court
judge and who was in the United States for the 2004
Presidential election, said she is paying attention to
the CE election and had seen some coverage of the
debate. She assessed that the encounter between Tsang
and Leong was "just like an American Presidential
debate."


4. (C) Although Mainland media have been limited in
their coverage of the election by strict guidance that
requires them to use Xinhua dispatches, the People's
Daily ran an article on March 2 with straight coverage
of the debate, the types of questions asked and did
not noticeably favor either candidate. Following the
initial People's Daily report, subsequent Xinhua
reports run by most major news outlets focused on the
minimal effect the debate had on continuing majority
support for incumbent CE Donald Tsang and on the Hong
Kong people's "ability to distinguish between a good
debater and a good administrator."


5. (C) Zhou Qing'an (protect),an associate professor
at the Tsinghua University School of Journalism and
Communications who writes regular commentary for The
Beijing News, told Poloff that propaganda authorities
have issued no new guidelines for the upcoming
election. The Xinhua coverage has been and will
continue to be straightforward, avoiding thorny issues
of democracy or universal suffrage, Zhou said. He
added that the Xinhua correspondents in Hong Kong,
whom he knows, practice self-censorship on such
matters to avoid unwelcome attention from the wire
service's top brass. Zhou predicted, however, that

BEIJING 00001596 002 OF 002


after the election, some outlets may test the censors
by running commentary on the vote. The progressive
Southern Metropolitan Daily particularly bears
watching, he related.


6. (C) There is uneven interest in Hong Kong issues in
Chinese society, Zhou said. People in southern China,
particularly in Guangdong and Fujian provinces, follow
Hong Kong developments closely, however, because what
happens there economically and politically can have a
pronounced effect on the region. In addition, elites
nationwide take an interest in Hong Kong, in part
because more and more business people and white-collar
workers have actually visited Hong Kong. Some even
have business interests there. For intellectuals,
particularly journalists and professors, Hong Kong
fascinates because they believe its progress in
democracy could help foster more political openness in
the Mainland.





RANDT