Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BEIJING1518
2007-03-08 04:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

DAS JOHN DISCUSSES BURMA, VIETNAM AND JOINT

Tags:  PREL ETRD UNSC CH BM VN XC 
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VZCZCXRO9186
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #1518/01 0670405
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 080405Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5384
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 001518 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/32
TAGS: PREL ETRD UNSC CH BM VN XC
SUBJECT: DAS JOHN DISCUSSES BURMA, VIETNAM AND JOINT
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA WITH CHINESE ACADEMICS

REF: BEIJING 1448

Classified By: Daniel Shields, Political Minister Counselor.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 001518

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/32
TAGS: PREL ETRD UNSC CH BM VN XC
SUBJECT: DAS JOHN DISCUSSES BURMA, VIETNAM AND JOINT
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA WITH CHINESE ACADEMICS

REF: BEIJING 1448

Classified By: Daniel Shields, Political Minister Counselor.
Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Chinese scholars of Southeast Asian affairs told EAP
DAS Eric John that Burma presents a major challenge and
opportunity for United States-China relations following
China's veto blocking a Burma resolution in the UN Security
Council (UNSC). The academics said China wants to cooperate
with the United States and continues to pressure Burma to
reform, but may emphasize economic reform and resolving
ethnic conflicts more than the political inclusiveness that
the United States stresses. Zhai said China thinks Burma's
plans for a new constitution are "better than nothing" and
that America's criticism of procedural and other flaws in the
regime's roadmap toward national reunification might be lost
on Beijing. DAS John countered that a bad constitution is
worse than nothing if it permanently excludes from the
political process any legitimate opposition. Elsewhere in
Southeast Asia, the United States and China share many
interests, including promoting economic growth, increasing
cooperation on nontraditional security issues and fighting
terrorism. The weakness and indecisiveness of ASEAN creates
problems for building regional architecture. China sees
Southeast Asia as a growing market, especially for exports
from China's border provinces. Vietnam is rapidly growing
more powerful and this causes China some concern, according
to the scholars. End Summary.


2. (C) On March 5, EAP DAS Eric G. John, joined by EAP DAS
Thomas D. Christensen, discussed American and Chinese
interests across Southeast Asia, including Burma and regional
architecture issues, with scholars Han Feng, Deputy Director
of the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS) Institute of
Southeast Asian studies, Zha Daojiong, Professor of
International Political Economy at People's University and
Zhang Xuegang, research fellow at the Ministry of State
Security-affiliated China Institute for Contemporary

International Relations (CICIR). In a separate meeting, DAS
John discussed similar topics with Zhai Kun, Director for
Southeast Asia at CICIR.

Burma: A Challenge and an Opportunity
--------------


3. (C) Burma presents a challenge and an opportunity that
only major powers like the United States and China can hope
to address, CICIR's Zhai told DAS John. The UNSC debate on
Burma pushed the Burma issue back to the major powers to
resolve, he said, noting that ASEAN has "given up." Chinese
analysts think top General Than Shwe believes resource-rich
Burma can resolve its problems alone, while others in the
regime know that they need support from China, India, Russia
or Japan. China wants to cooperate with the United States
and continues to pressure Burma to reform, but may emphasize
economic reform and resolving ethnic conflicts more than the
political inclusiveness that the United States stresses.
State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan's recent trip to Burma put
further pressure on Burma to respond to international
concerns, the scholars said.

China Thinks Regime's Roadmap is Not So Bad
--------------


4. (C) Zhai said China thinks Burma's plans for a new
constitution are "better than nothing" and that America's
criticism of procedural and other flaws in the regime's
roadmap toward national reunification might be lost on
Beijing. DAS John countered that a bad constitution is worse
than nothing if it permanently excludes from the political
process any legitimate opposition. Chinese support of a
"bad" reunification process risks putting the United States
and China in an ongoing cycle of confrontation over Burma,
DAS John said, something that Washington wants to avoid. Han
said China sees Burma's situation improving, in part because
Beijing focuses as much on resolving disputes with armed
ethnic groups as on the regime's reaching out to the National
League for Democracy.

Burma Thanks China for Veto
--------------


5. (C) Since China's veto in the UNSC, the Burmese junta has
expressed appreciation to Beijing for its support, scholars
said. Third-ranking general Thura Shwe Mann (whom Zhai said

BEIJING 00001518 002 OF 003


China sees as Than Shwe's likely successor) visited Beijing
to thank Chinese leaders, the academics stated.

Oil Pipeline through Burma
--------------


6. (C) Zha said he has read in Chinese economic publications
that China is moving ahead with plans for an oil pipeline
through Burma. He was critical of the pipeline on economic
grounds. He noted that Chinese officials previously urged
China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) to sign an energy
deal with Burma without suitable geological or feasibility
studies. The site turned out to have no oil or gas
resources, he said.

Shared Interests in Southeast Asia
--------------


7. (C) Turning from Burma to Southeast Asia as a whole, the
scholars agreed with DAS John's position that the United
States and China share interests in promoting the economic
development of the region. CICIR's Zhang stressed the risk
of terrorism spreading from underdeveloped parts of the
region and said that improving economic development can help
to stem some underlying causes of Islamic extremism in
Southeast Asia. Zha noted that we also share interests in
combating nontraditional security problems involving the
spread of drugs, crime and infectious disease. Zhai and Han
pointed to disaster response and maritime safety as other
fields in which the United States and China have shared
interests.


8. (C) All four scholars agreed with DAS John that the
United States and China are not competing in a zero-sum game
in Southeast Asia. Some in America may believe any gain for
China is a loss for the United States in the region, but Zha
said the United States has lost nothing to China in Southeast
Asia. In terms of security, economics and politics, the
United States remains as influential as ever in the region,
in Zha's view. Increased United States-China cooperation in
Southeast Asia could help to undermine zero-sum thinking and
containment rhetoric, Han said. In Indonesia, the United
States and China could coordinate their investment and
development aid to encourage good governance and discourage
destabilizing factors, Zha suggested. Working cooperatively
on development in places like Laos, Cambodia and the
Philippines could provide positive examples and help build
confidence between the United States and China, he suggested.

Regional Architecture: Does it Work? Is it Needed?
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Efforts to build regional architecture are plagued by
indecisiveness and inaction by ASEAN and its member states,
the scholars said, with the result that that the existing
architecture has produced few results. Zha said perhaps no
true regional architecture is needed for the next five to ten
years. CICIR's Zhai said it is anomalous that regional
architecture in Asia involves the smaller ASEAN states
leading larger, more powerful countries like Japan and China.
Han said this unusual arrangement is more in the interest of
China than Japan, because China is more comfortable than
Japan with giving ASEAN states the lead on regional
architecture issues. Han and Zhang both called attention to
the United States' refusal to sign ASEAN's Treaty of Amity
and Cooperation, saying this creates an image problem for the
United States in Southeast Asia, where the treaty is seen as
a symbolic way of establishing the equality of the
signatories. Zhang said that on regional architecture,
China's advantage is politics, because for China doing
something like signing a non-substantive agreement is not a
problem. Japan's advantage is economics, especially Tokyo's
large assistance programs. The advantage of the United
States lies in the area of security, Zhang stated.

Opportunities for China's Border Provinces
--------------


10. (C) CICIR's Zhai told DAS John he had just returned
March 5 from a conference on cooperation in the Gulf of
Tonkin sponsored by the Guangxi Province government. Chinese
provincial governments have increasing interests in Southeast
Asia because of their desire for economic growth. Provincial
leaders in China's South and Southwest see markets in
Southeast Asia as key to their expansion, Zhai said. Zha,
however, said officials in China's Ministry of Commerce
recently voiced concerns that China's export of large volumes
of cheaply manufactured goods will hurt China's relations in
Southeast Asia in the long-term. People in Southeast Asia

BEIJING 00001518 003 OF 003


are increasingly resentful of what they see as losing
investment and local jobs to Chinese manufacturers. In 2006,
a Chinese train was ambushed at the Vietnam-China border by
locals who dumped out the Chinese agricultural products seen
as flooding Vietnam's markets.

Vietnam
--------------


11. (C) Vietnam is rapidly growing more powerful and this
causes China some concern, according to the scholars.
Chinese scholars and policy makers are watching the
improvement in United States.-Vietnam ties closely, Zhai
said, noting that there is a major debate about how quickly
those ties will improve. China sees more room for Vietnam to
play an active role in the region, but Zhai said that Beijing
will be concerned if Washington's ties with Hanoi expand too
rapidly.

Laos
--------------


12. (C) Laos ranks near the bottom of most development
scales, Zhai said, but President Hu Jintao's visit to
Vientiane last year was part of the "democratization" of
Chinese foreign policy, showing that large and small
countries play equally important roles in the international
community.


13. (U) DAS John cleared this cable.
RANDT