LOOKING AHEAD TO ELECTIONS

UNCLAS BASRAH 000008

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: LOOKING AHEAD TO ELECTIONS

This cable is sensitive, but unclassified. Please protect
accordingly.


1. (SBU) The REO staff have been polling our Basrah contacts
since September regarding the likelihood of provincial elections
and possible outcomes. With few exceptions, REO contacts have
overwhelmingly stated that election planning and candidate
vetting is stalled until the new election law is passed and a
new electoral commission comes into being. Many expressed
frustration that the issue was not a higher priority in Baghdad,
and a few believed there would be a "fix" in setting the dates
in order to allow the current government the advantage in
garnering support and votes. Members of the Basrah Provincial
Council were clear that the biggest development would be whether
the candidates ran as individuals or in blocs.


2. (U) At least one citizens' group, the Gathering to Save
Basrah, has made it clear that it will support individuals, not
parties, in the next election as incumbents have proved
disappointing. (Note: The Gathering is made up of a
cross-section of professionals, academics, clerics, and tribal
members who restrict membership to those with no political
affiliation. End note.) It is the only local group that post
is aware of that plans to back specific candidates based on
expertise and experience. Since the last elections in January
2005, Basrah has suffered a decrease in essential services while
the crime rate has notably risen.


3. (U) Basrah's political powerhouses are affiliated with Shi'a
politics and that is not expected to change. Guessing as to a
likely outcome this early on is not advisable. However, if
candidates are judged on an individuals basis and not by party
bloc, then it is possible that blocs such as the United Iraqi
Alliance will have competition for the majority of electoral
seats. Fadhila Party, the governor's party, is still considered
strong but there is public resentment over the party's inability
to promote economic growth despite the province's oil and
shipping wealth. We also expect that the Office of the Martyr
Sadr party, (the political arm of Jai'sh al-Mahdi),will run
candidates in the next election after boycotting the first.


4. (U) The local citizenry were active participants in the last
election and are expected to be active once again. Poll
violence was almost non-existent in the last elections, and
voter turnout was high. The head of Basrah's Independent
Electoral Commission of Iraq expects heavy voter participation
in the next election as the main issues - essential services and
security affect most of the households. Thus, if the elections
are called with enough time to educate the population, and if
candidates run as individuals not blocs, we expect turnout will
be high for the next election.

BONO