BASRAH CLERIC FEARS CIVIL WAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000041

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAH CLERIC FEARS CIVIL WAR

REF: BASRAH 40

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CLASSIFIED BY: Louis L. Bono, Regional Director, REO Basrah,
DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Summary. A respected Basrah cleric (name protected)
visited the Regional Embassy Office (REO) Basrah May 19 and
predicted that civil war could engulf Iraq's oil-rich
southernmost province after Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) is
implemented. He added that the political parties and security
forces in southern Iraq are complicit with the militias who wage
war against the Coalition Forces. He expressed hope that the
coming U.S.- Iranian talks do not result in what he called "a
gift to the enemy." The cleric described his role in organizing
the May 9 public demonstrations in which approximately 10,000
Basrahwis protested militia violence, particularly the mortar
and rocket attacks directed at the Palace Compound, that inflict
death and injury on the civilian population, while calling
politicians to task for their inaction and corruption. End
Summary.

MILITIAS SEE REO RELOCATION AS VICTORY


2. (C) The cleric, arguably the most respected man in Basrah,
believes more needs to be done to strengthen the security forces
before PIC takes place. (See reftel). He said the militias are
positioning themselves for all-out war against each other for
control of the province after PIC, expected in August or
September. He reported that the militias, particularly the
larger ones, such as Ja'ish al-Mahdi, Badr, and Fadhila, are
exploring tactical alliances as they jockey for position. He
said the withdrawal of the British forces and the U.S. REO from
the Palace Compound would be claimed by the militias as a
victory over the "foreign forces" and predicted intensified
attacks on the U.S. and British installations at the air
station. He related that he had advised the British military
not to leave the palace so as not to encourage the militias. He
also discussed the complex web of collusion that exists between
militias and Basrah politicians and security officials.

IRAN'S ROLE IN THE VIOLENCE


3. (C) The cleric indicated two possibilities that might avert
massive post-PIC bloodshed: (1) a diplomatic bargain struck with
Iran that would result in Iran ceasing its support for the
militias or (2) the disarming of the Basrah militias. He said
Iran exercises pervasive influence over all the militias. The
REO director informed the cleric on the coming talks between the
United States and Iran in Baghdad later this month. He said
that the diplomatic process can be slow and a positive outcome
of the first meeting will be an agreement to meet again. The
cleric expressed the hope that the U.S. diplomatic engagement
with Iran will not result in "a gift to the enemy."

CLERIC BACKS CIVIC ACTION AGAINST CORRUPT, VIOLENCE


4. (C) The cleric described his role in the May 9
demonstrations against the militias and politicians. He said
that his Shakheyah sect issued a manifesto directed only at its
members to march, but the call was embraced by thousands from
other groups who are disgusted with the corrupt and violent
forces that are strangling the city. The manifesto accused the
politicians, the police, the army and the Emergency Security
Committee for causing the "horror" that has befallen Basrah.
The manifesto listed the grievances as militia mortar and rocket
attacks against the Coalition that are killing Basrah citizens,
assassination squads run amok and rampant corruption that has
gutted the economy of Iraq's richest region. The protestors
warned the militias that "we know who you are" and if you do not
cease the acts of violence, the protestors said they would take
matters into their own hands. The cleric castigated the Basrah
media for spinelessly misreporting the demonstrations solely as
protests against the Coalition Forces. (Note: In fairness to
the media, many journalists say that honest reporting is a
life-threatening undertaking. The frequent assassinations of
Basrawis working with the Coalition Forces underscore their
concern. End note.)

FUTILE EFFORTS TO STEM VIOLENCE


5. (C) The cleric held out little hope that fresh elections
would alleviate the city's plight because, he said, the same
crooks would return to power via the muzzles of the militia
guns. He recounted his futile efforts to effect a reduction of
violence by offering money to jobless, uneducated youths to keep
them out of the militias and by admonishing militia commanders
that their actions are illegal. He said that he has pleaded
with them to avoid killing their own people, even if they
persist in attacking the Coalition Forces. The REO director

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praised the cleric for his efforts to bring peaceful, civic
pressure to bear on the government and added that the U.S.
government is looking for ways to help the Basrah moderates in
their struggle against the practitioners of violence.


6. (C) Comment: The cleric's fears of post-PIC mayhem
corroborate those of the REO Basrah. In addition to the cleric,
numerous moderate Basrah leaders have said in recent months that
for the British to relinquish security responsibility to Iraqis
at this juncture would be tantamount to throwing them to the
wolves. The anti-militia protest is a good indication of the
level of frustration that the citizens of Basrah have with the
militias and corruption and shows that they are prepared to take
matters into their own hands.
GASTALDO