MODERATES PREDICT MORE VIOLENCE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000015

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IR IZ
SUBJECT: MODERATES PREDICT MORE VIOLENCE

REF: BASRAH 013

BASRAH 00000015 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Louis L. Bono, Director, REO Basrah, Department
of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (S/NF) Summary and Introduction. Two tribal leaders and a
lawyer, all with close ties to the Coalition, told REO Basrah
that they expect violence to erupt in Basrah after Coalition
Forces implement Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC). This ominous
prediction was delivered by Sheikh Mansur al-Kanaan on February
1, Assaf al-Nahi, a lawyer employed by the Basrah Court of
Appeals and the Basrah Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) on
February 7, and Sheikh Kadem al-Qatrani on February 8. They
contend that British inaction to capture militia leaders and
deepening Iranian penetration into southern Iraq have sown the
seeds for militia warfare. They add that the Coalition has done
a poor job fighting the "war of influence," leaving the Basrah
public unaware of the good things it has done on their behalf.
The three figures maintain close relations with the Coalition
and are considered credible sources. End Summary.

BASRAH SOURCES HOLD BRITISH ACCOUNTABLE FOR INACTION


2. (S/NF) All three laid the blame for the impending violence
at the feet of the British military. Sheikh Mansur said he has
followed British advice for the past several years. He has
attempted to promote peace and tolerance while providing the
British military with the names, addresses, telephone numbers
and movements of militia commanders. He said the British have
consistently acted slowly, weakly or not at all, with the result
that Basrah is in worse security shape today than two years ago,
when elections were first held. To illustrate, Mansur said he
informed the British of the hour and place of a militia
commanders' meeting in late January, but they did not mount a
raid. The sheikh also castigated the British for bowing to
pressure and issuing an apology to Basrah Governor Mohammad
al-Wa'eli who demanded that the British strike the name of his
younger brother, Ismail al-Wa'eli, from the list of the most
wanted criminals in Basrah. (Comment: The younger al-Wa'eli is,
by all accounts, the governor's key henchman, running
assassination and kidnapping squads. The British are aware of
the governor's shortcomings, but he is one of the few leaders
to have expressed public support for the Coalition in recent
months. End comment.) Mansur said the British have jeopardized
the lives of Basrah moderates, including his own, by failing to
take swift and decisive action against the militia leaders. The
sheikh is now under mounting pressure from members of his tribe
to exact retribution from Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) and Sayed Shuhada
militia gunmen, who, Mansur believes, assassinated a cousin and
nearly assassinated another. One of Mansur's cousins, who is
employed by the REO, said that tribal hotheads are calling the
sheikh a coward for not ordering reprisals. "My nationality is
more important than my tribe," Mansur told the REO director.

COALITION TAINTED BY DEALING WITH CORRUPT CONTRACTORS


3. (S/NF) Assaf al-Nahi, who bears a bullet wound on his neck
from his his anti-smuggling efforts, predicted that the judicial
system will collapse and assassinations will surge when Basrah
goes to PIC. He echoed Sheikh Mansur's fear that the JAM,
Fadilla and Badr militias will carve up the city into sectors of
control. Al-Nahi referred to the Basrah governor and most of
the provincial council as "thieves" and described their corrupt
practices. He went on to name local contractors that are
ripping-off Coalition reconstruction funds and recommended that
the Coalition switch its business dealings to reputable firms,
such as those related to the al-Musawi group. (Note: Al-Nahi
has ties to the Musawi family, one of the most respected
families in Basrah. End note.) By dealing with crooked
companies, al-Nahi said the Coalition is gaining a reputation as
a supporter of thieves. Nevertheless, al-Nahi added that most
of the journalists and the 2,000 lawyers in Basrah support the
Coalition. "Thousands of people are willing to work with the
Coalition Forces," Al-Nahi said. Both he and Sheikh Mansur said
the Coalition needs its own media outlet to spread information
about its programs to rebuild southern Iraq. The REO director
agreed, saying the Coalition is doing a poor job "waging the war
of influence." (Note: The REO is working with the Coalition to
improve our public relations. End note.)

TRIBAL LEADER SAYS PREMATURE PIC COULD TRIGGER CIVIL STRIFE


4. (S/NF) Sheikh al-Qatrani, a blunt talker, opened his meeting
with the REO director saying that he has not seen any positive
results from his numerous discussions with REO officials about
Basrah violence. He said the situation continues to

BASRAH 00000015 002.2 OF 002


deteriorate, evidenced by the murder of two Iraqi interpreters
working with British forces during Operation Sinbad. If PIC is
implemented prematurely, "crime will rise and the people of
Basrah will say that the United States overthrew Saddam Hussein
and brought us civil war," al-Qatrani said. (Note: MND(SE)
planned on PIC during April/May, but is now considering August.
End note.) The sheikh, who was deputy governor of Basrah under
the CPA, said public safety began to deteriorate when political
parties gained power through elections. They placed their
gunmen on the police force, creating the current network of
armed militias. Al-Qatrani said of the 15,000 names on the
Basrah police payroll, only about 3,000 are legitimate. He
recommended the police force be cleansed and reconstituted with
tribal recruits. The REO director said that al-Qatrani's
proposal had merit, and he would raise it with MND(SE),but it
was up to Iraqis to take the lead.

IRAN SUPPORTS COMPETING IRAQI MILITIAS


5. (S/NF) Both sheikhs and al-Nahi said that Iran is wielding
growing influence in southern Iraq. According to Mansur and
al-Nahi, Iran supports JAM and Badr, which are deadly rivals, as
well as the Harakat Hezbollah and Sayed Shuhada militias.
Mansur said Iran has infiltrated JAM through ex-Badr members.
He named the JAM head in southern Iraq as Jamal Jaafar Abu Mahdi
al-Muhendis, a member of the Council of Representatives in
Baghdad. Al-Kanaan related that al-Muhendis had a falling out
with SCIRI leader Abdul Azziz al-Hakim and defected to the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards. According to Mansur, al-Muhendis
is from the Babil/Hillah area and has Iranian nationality.
Mansur and al-Nahi said that Iran's leading Ayatollah, Ali
Khameni, supports Badr as a moderate force to engage in the
political process, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guards lend
their backing to JAM, the primary purveyor of violence against
the Coalition and its Iraqi collaborators.

ABU HATEM, PRINCE OF THE MARSHES, A TURNCOAT?


6. (S/NF) Mansur said that Iranian-backed Harakat Hezbollah
has formed an alliance with a prominent figure from Maysan
Province, Abu Hatem, the Prince of the Marshes, lionized for his
Robin Hood-like resistance to Saddam Hussein. Mansur said he
was shocked to learn that Abu Hatem, once a friend, has
developed relations with Iran. He said it is a betrayal of Abu
Hatem's principles. Asked why Iran is so deeply involved in
southern Iraq, al-Nahi said many Iranians oppose their own
government and want reforms. The militant, conservative forces
in Iran want to prevent a liberal democratic political system
from developing on Iran's western flank, he added. Al-Nahi said
his many Iranian acquaintances in Basrah provide him with a good
deal of information about conditions inside Iran and offered to
introduce these contacts to REO staff. The outspoken Sheikh
al-Qatrani said that in order to stop the arming and funding of
Iraqi militias by Iran, the border must be sealed and a truck
cargo inspection system must be installed.


7. (S/NF) Comment. Basrah is beginning to resemble Chicago
during prohibition. Many of the power brokers are driven by
jealousy and greed, and are either protected by or beholden to
militia. Added to this is the Iranian support for the
Islamacists and militia. In the meantime, the moderates, who
are fighting for political (and in some cases literal) survival,
question why the Coalition does so little to support them. (See
also reftel.) They are growing desperate and may resort to
their own private militias for their survival.
BONO