Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BANJUL98
2007-02-26 11:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Banjul
Cable title:  

KEY OPPOSITION MEMBER'S POLITICAL INSIGHTS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM GA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7488
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHJL #0098/01 0571100
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261100Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANJUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7332
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000098 

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GA
SUBJECT: KEY OPPOSITION MEMBER'S POLITICAL INSIGHTS

REF: A. BANJUL 65

B. BANJUL 70

BANJUL 00000098 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Poloff Menaka M. Nayyar, Reason 1.4 (b and d)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000098

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GA
SUBJECT: KEY OPPOSITION MEMBER'S POLITICAL INSIGHTS

REF: A. BANJUL 65

B. BANJUL 70

BANJUL 00000098 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Poloff Menaka M. Nayyar, Reason 1.4 (b and d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Omar Jallow, commonly known as "O.J.," a prominent
figure in the opposition National Alliance for Democracy and
Development (NADD) coalition, met with Ambassador and Poloff
to discuss his view of the Gambian political scene. He
blamed the divided opposition for their poor showing in both
the September 2006 presidential election and the January 25
National Assembly elections, while judging those results --
i.e. President Jammeh's and his APRC party's landslide
victories -- to be credible. He characterized the electorate
as disillusioned with the fractured opposition parties, and
cited the need for a strategic partnership between his NADD
coalition and the leading opposition alliance led by the
United Democratic Party (UDP). Jallow also indicated that
civil disorder could not be ruled out should the restrictive
political environment and lack of economic opportunity for
youths in The Gambia continue unabated. END SUMMARY

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POINTING THE FINGER -- AT THE OPPOSITION
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2. (C) On February 21, Ambassador and Poloff met with Omar
Jallow, a.k.a. O.J., a veteran politician, senior NADD
official and former GOTG cabinet member prior to the 1994
coup. He recently returned to The Gambia from a lengthy
convalescence in the U.K. which kept him out of the country
during the September 22, 2006 presidential contest and much
of the run-up to the January 25 National Assembly elections,
for which he was present. O.J. said that he accepted the
results of the elections -- both President Jammeh's September
victory and his ruling party Alliance for Patriotic
Reorientation and Construction (APRC)'s dominance in the
National Assembly contest -- as credible. He went beyond
targeting the APRC's wrongdoings in the elections by faulting
the opposition parties for their own defeats after the
umbrella NADD coalition splintered into separate NADD and UDP
alliances in early 2006. Jallow noted that in The Gambia's

nationwide elections prior to this latest National Assembly
contest, voter turnout in the country had never been below 65
percent, and he interpreted the turnout rate for the January
elections (42 percent) as, in large part, a protest by the
electorate against the opposition parties for their inability
to move past divisions among themselves to maintain a united
front against the APRC. O.J. estimated that a united
opposition could have garnered over 20 seats (out of a total
of 48 elected seats) in the recent National Assembly election.

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FORGING AHEAD IN HARMONY, IF NOT UNITY
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3. (SBU) In his discussion of the way forward for both NADD
and the opposition as a whole, O.J. lamented what he saw as a
reversion of the democratic process, with power increasingly
centralized in the executive. He cited the need for the UDP
and NADD to consolidate their gains in the National Assembly
elections -- the two parties carried 5 seats between them,
with a sixth going to an independent candidate (ref A). He
stated that NADD is soon to issue a press release to invite
discussion amongst the opposition parties with the aspiration
to form an understanding to work together. At the same time,
O.J. stressed that NADD is not yet looking to restore its
alliance with the UDP coalition, but for now would like a
small committee from both alliances to negotiate a common
strategy for the next five years with an eye to the 2011
presidential election.

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MOU STILL VALID
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4. (SBU) O.J. said he felt that the Commonwealth-brokered
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) establishing a "code of
conduct" among the three contesting parties -- the UDP
alliance, NADD coalition, and ruling APRC -- signed in
February 2006 had not had an adequate opportunity to be
effective, with the opposition divided. During the
elections, he claimed, there was no respect of the MOU, but
again, he placed the blame mostly on what he called the
opposition's "irresponsible behavior," explaining that their
disunity meant that the parties were not as respected or as
credible nationally or internationally, and that they had
lost popular support accordingly. Jallow emphasized that the

BANJUL 00000098 002.2 OF 002


MOU remained an important document, and noted that he had
spoken with the Commonwealth Secretariat in London about
working further to facilitate interparty dialog and, for
example, get the parties to send unified requests to NGOs for
training for all parties, including the APRC. He also cited
the National Council for Civil Education (NCCE) as a target
for improvement, highlighting the need for it to be an
independent body to foster a culture of democracy and
reinforce the necessary structures to uphold "the pillars of
democracy."

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APRC HEAVYWEIGHTS AFRAID
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5. (C) An old hand in Gambian politics, O.J. noted that he
has maintained strong contacts with individuals in the senior
ranks of the APRC, including Vice-President, Isatou
Njie-Saidy, senior APRC official and Secretary of State for
Fisheries and Natural Resources, Yankuba Touray, and
Secretary of State for Forestry and the Environment, Edward

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Singhatey, as well as the new head of the National
Intelligence Agency, Pa Jallow. He said that while these
officials were favorably inclined toward the idea of
discussions with NADD, they feared the authoritarian
instincts of President Jammeh and his expected opposition to
such discussions made them unlikely. O.J. went on to assert
that as Jammeh's power has increased, these key figures have
downplayed their relationship with Jallow. O.J. did not
dismiss the possibility of another coup attempt, though he
said he would never condone it. He also categorized Jammeh's
latest role as a healer (ref B) as a diversion to mask the
growing economic hardships and reduced political space facing
Gambians, and worried that they could be potentially
dangerous for the country as well as catastrophic for
tourism, a key industry in The Gambia.

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BOILING POINT?
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6. (C) Elaborating, Jallow did not rule out prospects for
turmoil in the country, characterizing the Gambian public,
and youths in particular, as increasingly disenchanted. He
did not rule out the possibility of negative public
sentiments boiling over and degenerating into civil disorder,
citing the bloody uprising surrounding the 1981 failed coup
attempt, which, he recalled, resulted in some 250 deaths.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) It is noteworthy that O.J., as a seasoned political
veteran formerly opposed to the government, accepts as
credible the election results from both the September 2006
presidential race and the January National Assembly
elections. Also noteworthy is his placement of the blame on
the opposition more than the APRC's and GOTG's irregularities
during the elections as reasons for the APRC's dominance.
His warning about the prospects of disorder cannot be
dismissed, though there are no visible signs at present that
it is on the horizon. His mention of the 1981 violence among
the peace-loving Gambians is a reminder that the country has
not been immune from unrest. END COMMENT
STAFFORD