NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS: RULING APRC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 000044

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GA
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS: RULING APRC
MAINTAINS CONTROL, WITH MODEST OPPOSITION, INDEPENDENT GAINS

REF: BANJUL 36

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The ruling party Alliance for Patriotic
Reorientation and Construction (APRC) has won a total of 42
out of 48 seats in the National Assembly elections held on
January 25. Five seats were won by default as APRC
candidates ran unopposed in their constituencies, while 37 of
the 43 contested seats were won in Thursday's contest. The
opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) picked up four
seats, the opposition National Alliance for Democracy and
Development (NADD) took one, and an independent candidate won
the last seat. The opposition National Reconciliation Party
(NRP),did not win any seats, despite its strategic alliance
with the UDP. Neither the head of NADD, Halifa Sallah, nor
the leader of the NRP, Hamat Bah, won in their respective
constituencies. Voter turnout was extremely low by Gambian
standards, at 41.7 percent, or 261,974 votes cast. Though
the APRC will continue to dominate the National Assembly, it
did lose an additional three seats to opposition and
independent candidates, down to 42 from 45 in the outgoing
parliament. Embassy observers reported no violence,
scattered instances of intimidation and procedural
irregularities, and some instances of underage voters. Our
initial assessment is that, in the absence of any indication
so far of systematic rigging of election results, they were
credible -- with the likely exception of one particular
constituency, where irregularities appeared considerably
higher than elsewhere. END SUMMARY.

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FINAL RESULTS
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2. (U) The final results were declared on the morning of
January 26 after a relatively swift counting process. The
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) declared that the APRC
won 37 seats, or 59.7 percent of votes. This is in addition
to the five seats the APRC won by default prior to the
election in the constituencies where its candidates ran
unopposed. The Gambia's largest opposition part, the UDP,
won four seats and 21.9 percent of the vote, taking three
seats in the Lower River region areas of Jarra Central, Kiang
Central, and Kiang West, the only constituency to vote for
the opposition in September's presidential election, as well
as one seat in the Central River Region constituency of Sami.
NADD captured 5.3 percent of the vote and won its sole seat
in Wulli West, where the incumbent maintained his seat, while
an independent candidate won in the Foni Bintang
constituency. Independents garnered 7.3 percent of votes,
while the NRP, which did not win any seats, won 5.7 percent
of the total votes.

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LOW TURNOUT
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3. (U) Embassy observers noted very low turnout at the
polls, which was confirmed by the unprecedentedly low turnout
figure of 41.7 percent, or 261,974 votes. Turnout for the
presidential election in September 2006 was approximately 59
percent, which was also low compared to the previous contest.
Reasons for the low turnout rate are unclear. Possible
explanations initially mentioned by contacts include the
timing of the election during the rice harvesting season and
voter apathy due to expectations of an overwhelming APRC
victory.

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KEY PLAYERS LOSE OUT
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4. (SBU) There were at least two high-profile losses for
opposition candidates. Though he did win 35 percent of the
votes, Halifa Sallah, outgoing Minority Leader and NADD
flagbearer, lost the triangular race in Serrekunda Central to
the APRC candidate, Ousainou Sainey Jaiteh, who took 52.2
percent of votes. The UDP candidate in that constituency
took 12.7 percent. Hamat Bah, the NRP leader, lost a close
race in his home constituency of Upper Saloum, losing to APRC
candidate Sainey Mbye with 48.6 percent of votes. The
victory of an independent, Ebrima Jammeh, in the Foni Bintang
constituency signals a loss for the APRC in a stronghold
area, highlighting the tension surrounding the selection of
APRC candidates (reftel).

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EMBASSY OBSERVATIONS
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5. (SBU) Four embassy teams, spread out around the country,
observed at least 120 of the 930 polling stations. Some
common threads emerged: short and orderly queues, low
turnout after the initial morning rush, a majority of female
voters, and no violence. Minor altercations were reported at
a few polling stations, but overall the electoral process was
a smooth one. IEC-trained polling and party agents seemed
better-informed than during the presidential election, and
while occasional technical glitches were reported, e.g.
confusion over how to treat a few voters not listed on the
registers or counterfoils, nothing detrimental to the outcome
was observed in the procedures. There were isolated
incidents of underage voters taking part, but in negligible
numbers, except in the hotly contested Upper Saloum area,
where underage voters were seen en masse at multiple polling
sites. One minor was queried after she had voted and told
Emboffs that she was in the fifth grade, which would put her
age at 11 or 12. When possible, Embassy observers took
photographs of minors voting, and Post plans to share them
with the local UNICEF office, other observers, and the IEC.


6. (SBU) One clear incident of voter intimidation was
observed in Upper Saloum, where two armed policeman and a
group of security agents were posted at the juncture of the
highway and a main road leading to several polling stations.


7. (SBU) Other isolated irregularities reported were late
openings of the polls, largely due to the 7 a.m. start time
which was well before sunrise; APRC propaganda on the
premises of a polling station; an incumbent APRC candidate
present at a polling station; village elders sitting next to
the entrance to a voting booth; the occasional blurring of
roles between party agents and IEC polling agents; and a
police entourage escorting two GOTG officials -- the regional
governor and the Secretary of State for the Interior -- at a
polling site.

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COMMENT
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8. (SBU) The APRC's continued dominance of the National
Assembly came as no surprise, although party leaders,
including President Jammeh, will likely be dismayed at the
loss of three of their seats. The lone independent victor
may signal dissatisfaction with operations within the APRC.
Though the results indicate that the election was, overall, a
credible one, the irregularities cited in Upper Saloum are
troublesome and likely affected the outcome in that very
close race. The low voter turnout will doubtless be of
concern to both the ruling and opposition parties. The
analysis of this factor and the reports of other observation
missions, both domestic and international, will be of high
interest in the days to come. Two separate election
debriefings will be held by the donor community and the IEC
on Saturday, January 26. Post will report septel. END
COMMENT
STAFFORD