Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BANGKOK728
2007-02-06 08:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

BURMESE EXILE COMMUNITY STILL SEARCHING FOR A

Tags:  PREL PHUM NSC BH TH 
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VZCZCXRO8937
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #0728/01 0370833
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 060833Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4579
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000728 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM NSC BH TH
SUBJECT: BURMESE EXILE COMMUNITY STILL SEARCHING FOR A
CONSOLIDATED STRATEGY

Classified By: Political Officer J.R. Littlejohn, reason: 1.4 (b) and (
d)

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000728

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM NSC BH TH
SUBJECT: BURMESE EXILE COMMUNITY STILL SEARCHING FOR A
CONSOLIDATED STRATEGY

Classified By: Political Officer J.R. Littlejohn, reason: 1.4 (b) and (
d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In the aftermath of a failed UN Security Council
resolution, members of the Burmese exile community are
advocating a variety of strategies, including enhanced USG
engagement with China to encourage inclusion of NLD and
ethnic groups in the final phase of Burma's National
Convention, establishing a mechanism similar to the Six-Party
Talks focused on Burma, and requesting the international
community to pressure the government of Burma (GOB) to use
election monitors in any future referendum. Post finds the
exile community has some ideas that appear a bit unrealistic.
A consolidated approach is expected to emerge after a
late-February 2007 meeting of the Strategy Coordinating
Committees (SCC) consisting of all the NCUB member
organizations and some ceasefire groups (septel).
Increasingly concerned with the possibility of the Europeans
softening their approach to Burma, members of the exile
community are beefing up their shuttle diplomacy. End
Summary.

NATIONAL CONVENTION
--------------


2. (C) On January 29, David Taw, Chairman of the National
Council for the Union of Burma Foreign Affairs Committee, and
Dr. Lian H. Sakhong, General Secretary of the Ethnic
Nationalities Council (ENC) told us they would like to see
Burma's National Convention process opened to enable free
discussion of all relevant issues, and include the NLD and
ethnic groups in the constitutional drafting process.
Specifically they would like to see the USG and China work
together toward this goal.


3. (C) Taw said his contacts inside Burma suggest the NC
will resume in May and this could be the final session. He
said the NCUB and ENC sometimes consult with 13 ceasefire
groups attending the convention, specifically mentioning the
New Mon State Party, Kachin Independence Organization, and
the Shan State Army. Taw said the 13 ceasefire groups he
contacts are trying to find ways to introduce a federal
construct into the process so ethnic groups have rights. He
mentioned that prior proposals have not received a response,

but they hope their submissions will be addressed before any
constitution is adopted. Taw said ceasefire groups are
frustrated with the brush-off their suggestions have received
to date, which is one reason why many exile, ethnic, and
pro-democracy groups have refused to legitimate the NC
process by not participating in it.


4. (C) Zaw Zaw Htun of Forum for Democracy in Burma (FDB)
also separately expressed concerns with the outcome of the
National Convention. Htun said they would like the United
States and the international community to begin thinking
about a future election process. Specifically, the FDB is
urging international actors to push for a referendum that is
organized by voting rather than public rally, and that
includes international election monitors. According Htun,
members of the exile community are concerned that the regime
would hold a rally packed with members of the Union
Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),a puppet
organization staffed by senior leaders of the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC),which will rubberstamp the
constitution.

HOLDING THE SUPPORT BASE TOGETHER
--------------


5. (C) In a January 25 conversation, Debbie Stothard,
Coordinator of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma
(ALTSEAN-Burma) said the exile community is expanding its
international diplomacy efforts. Stothard said the exile
community is comfortable with the support received from the
United States and would like to see sanctions against the GOB
continued. However, she said, the exiles are increasingly
worried about Europe.


6. (C) Taw and Sakhong singled out Germany as eager to
change the European Union's level of engagement with the
regime. According to Taw, the Germans are concerned that
past practices of freezing assets and limiting visas are not
effective. Sakhang believes the EU is pushing for
humanitarian engagement with the regime. Members of the NCUB
flew to various European countries last week to encourage
staying the current course on Burma.

THE ASEAN INTERPARLIMENTARY MYANMAR CAUCUS (AIPMC)
-------------- --------------

BANGKOK 00000728 002 OF 002




7. (C) Taw said the NCUB is focusing on the ASEAN
Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC). The NCUB would
like ASEAN governments to take a tougher stance on the
regime. He said that the Foreign Affairs branch of the NCUB
talks to MPs, but that governments often have a different
stance from parliamentarians. The NCUB hopes Singapore
specifically will encourage MPs to join the Parliamentary
Caucus on Burma. Taw was less enthusiastic about Laos,
Vietnam and Brunei because they have "no history of working
with AIPMC." (Comment: Laos and Vietnam also have no history
of advocating for democracy. End Comment.)

SIX PARTY TALKS ON BURMA?
--------------


8. (C) The exile community has some ideas that appear to us
very unrealistic. Sakhong suggested a new approach to
enhancing opportunities for dialogue might be modeled after
the Six Party Talks on North Korea. He said this forum for
engagement might produce a much needed opportunity for China
to weigh in on a possible solution alongside the United
States. Like others, he emphasized the importance of
engaging China in a solution on the current political stasis
in Burma.


9. (C) Zaw Oo a member of the Zahu Development Institute
said that he cannot completely endorse the idea of Six-Party
Talks on Burma, because he is not sure who should be involved
in such a multilateral setting. However, he could see using
this kind of framework to engage Burma with the USG playing a
key role in building an international consensus (read:
getting China to support any outcome).

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Almost 20 years since the 1988 student uprising and
the NLD's 1990 landslide election victory in Burma, exile
groups are struggling to find a consolidated
one-size-fits-China (and everyone else) strategy for bringing
democratic change to Burma. The National Convention,
considered a sham process by most members of the exile
community, is still viewed by some members of the NCUB and
umbrella groups as the only game in town and these groups
view gaining a foothold in the constitution's drafting and/or
adoption period as an important step toward democratization.
This will spark a strong negative reaction from the NLD and
others.
BOYCE