LONG-AWAITED MALIAN CABINET SHUFFLE APPEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAMAKO 000074

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ML
SUBJECT: LONG-AWAITED MALIAN CABINET SHUFFLE APPEARS
IMMINENT


Classified By: Political Officer Glenn Fedzer for reason 1.4 (B)


1. (U) A long-anticipated cabinet reshuffle may finally be
here, according to a recent article likely written by
Minister of Communications Gaoussou Drabo. The article, under
the pseudonym "Khalifa," indicated that "things should
clarify soon" and enter the terminal phase of the
pre-electoral period. The wait for the shuffle has been a
source of tension, as President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT)
reportedly promised government posts in a reshuffled cabinet
to parties who joined ATT's Alliance for Democracy (ADP) a
coalition created to support ATT's re-election campaign.
More than a month after 14 parties signed on to the ADP,
however, all of ATT's Ministers remain in place.

2.(C) One reason for the delay may have been the defection
of PARENA from the Presidential camp. PARENA struck an
agreement with ATT that delivered PARENA's second round
endorsement in return for certain post-election concessions
and one Ministerial post in 2002, but party president Tiebele
Drame has since fallen out with the President. On January 6
PARENA announced that the party would not join the ADP.
Drame, a former Foreign Minister under Alpha Oumar Konare,
later told the Embassy that ATT personally asked him to
reconsider PARENA's declaration, and promised that he would
reshuffle his cabinet "tomorrow" if PARENA signed onto the
ADP.


3. (C) The cabinet shuffle, regardless if it goes forward
with or without PARENA, will likely paint the battle lines
for the election to come. Significantly, ATT will campaign
without the support of many of his allies from the second
round of 2002, including PARENA, National Assembly President
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK) and his Rally for Mali (RPM),
and a sizable chunk of ADEMA, now being pulled apart between
ATT loyalists and those who support "independent" candidate
Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga (septel). ADEMA's implosion makes
the Union for the Republic and Democracy (URD) the main force
within the ADP. Ironically, URD founder Soumaila Cisse was
ATT's second round opponent in 2002. URD leaders said
joining the ADP was a conscious decision by Cisse to bide his
time and wait for a chance to follow ATT as President in

2012. With opposition from some of his former friends and
only tepid support from his former enemies, the Cabinet
shuffle may prove ATT's best chance to lock in his remaining
allies heading into April's first electoral round.
MCCULLEY