AZERBAIJAN IN WAIT AND SEE MODE REGARDING RUSSIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000903

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2017
TAGS: PARM PBTS PGOV PREL KCFE RU AM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN IN WAIT AND SEE MODE REGARDING RUSSIAN
CFE SUSPENSION

REF: A. BAKU 00841

B. MOSCOW 03451

C. IIR 6 941 0073 07

D. IIR 6 941 0074 07

E. IIR 6 941 0089 07

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: Local media reaction to Russia's
announcement to suspend participation in the CFE Treaty has
been largely muted, with most of the media organizations
adopting a cautious approach to the development. Local
political commentators are still digesting this development
as well. Initial responses are largely guided by the
individual commentator's respective understanding of the
Treaty's conditions. Those less familiar with the Treaty's
specifics are quick to criticize the Russian step, while at
the same time faulting the CFE Treaty for being an
ineffective impediment for stopping Russian military
assistance to Armenia or stemming the flow of weaponry from
Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. Pundits with a deeper
understanding of the Treaty's substance also generally hold a
negative view of the Treaty because they believe it runs
counter to Azerbaijan's interests vis-a-vis several of its
key national security challenges: Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia,
and Russia. Local analyst Ilgar Mammdaov's argument that the
Russian decision could give the GOAJ the necessary political
cover to seek its own adjustments to the Treaty tracks with
our previous belief that the GOAJ is considering suspending
its participation in the Treaty (ref A). The GOAJ likely
will remain in a "wait-and-see" mode in the coming weeks as
it gauges the U.S. and European response to the Russian step.
We believe it would be useful to weigh in formally with the
GOAJ with our views on this development and welcome
Washington's continued guidance. End Summary.

Press Readout
--------------


2. (SBU) Local media reaction to Russia's announcement has
been largely muted, with most of the media organizations
adopting a wait-and-see attitude to the development.
Presidential advisor Novruz Mammadov told Interfax that
Azerbaijan favors "constructive" relations between the U.S.
and Russia, and that he viewed Putin's decision as counter to
such relations. Reflecting the GOAJ's generally cautious
policy stance, Mammadov noted that the GOAJ thought it was
"too soon" to comment substantively on the Russian step, and
that the GOAJ was waiting to hear the reactions from the U.S.
and Europe. Former presidential aide Vafa Quluzade told
ANS-TV on July 15 that he does not think Azerbaijan will be
affected by Russia's decision to suspend participation in the
CFE Treaty. The pro-opposition Yeni Musavat newspaper ran a
speculative July 16 article under the headline, "The New Cold
War has Officially Begun."

Local Analysts See CFE as Unfair
--------------


3. (C) Political commentator Ilgar Mammadov told us the
Russian decision opened up a new opportunity to advance
Azerbaijan's regional interests that he hoped the GOAJ would
pursue. Mammadov explained that because Russia has taken the
first step of suspending participation in the Treaty regime,
this can give Azerbaijan the political cover to raise its own
concerns with what Mammadov regarded as an unjust and unfair
treaty. Mammadov argued that the Treaty is against
Azerbaijan's interests, mirroring what Deputy Foreign
Minister Araz Azimov told Charge on July 5 (ref A).
Specifically, Mammadov said the Treaty unfairly sets equal
arms ceilings on all three South Caucasus states when
Azerbaijan is the largest both in terms of territory and
population. Mammadov also commented that Russia and Armenia
have broken the Treaty, and Azerbaijan's continued compliance
with the Treaty only reinforces an already disadvantageous
situation for Baku.


4. (C) Local civil society activist Dadash Alishov told us
the Russian decision was primarily directed toward a U.S. and
European audience. Alishov argued that the Russian decision

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would only have a limited practical impact on Azerbaijan
because Russia and Armenia broke the Treaty while Azerbaijan
committed itself to compliance with the agreement. Alishov's
perspective is reflective of the broader societal view that
sees Moscow and Yerevan as Baku's conspiring enemies, while
at the same time having a limited understanding of the
Treaty's details.


5. (C) Political pundit Rasim Musabeyov publicly said
Russia's decision was not a surprise for anyone. Musabeyov
commented that Russia has been increasing its troop strength
in the North Caucasus. Reflecting a somewhat more optimistic
tone than other commentators, Musabeyov said that because
Armenia is a party to the Treaty, the Russian decision would
not necessarily translate into a large increase of Russian
armaments being sent to Armenia.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) As we suggested in ref A, we believe the GOAJ has
been cautiously waiting for Russia to make the first moves on
CFE. The GOAJ perceives that the Treaty is disadvantageous
to its interests on several of Azerbaijan's top national
security concerns: Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, and Russia.
While Russia has now taken the first step, we believe the
GOAJ will remain in the "wait-and-see" mode for the coming
weeks, as it watches for the U.S. and European reaction to
Russia's decision. Novruz Mammadov's statement that the GOAJ
is waiting to gauge the U.S. and European reaction to
Russia's suspension of the Treaty is the most recent and
clearest reflection of this policy.


7. (C) The U.S. interest in this Treaty as a cornerstone of
stability in Europe is clear. The Ambassador will be meeting
with senior officials -- including Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov and Presidential Administration Chief of Staff
Ramiz Mehdiyev -- today to caution Azerbaijan from taking any
precipitous action in response to the Russian moratorium. We
welcome guidance on our response to this development. We
believe the nature of the U.S. and European response to
Russia's action will be critical to determining the GOAJ's
next steps. Our key points of leverage with the GOAJ will be
a strongly unified U.S.-European response to Russia's action
as suggested ref B, and the GOAJ's broader desire to remain
in good standing with the U.S. We note, however, that our
overall leverage on this issue with the GOAJ is limited by
the widespread public perception that the CFE Treaty
disadvantages Azerbaijan and that a Russian withdrawal would
reinforce this further as the GOAJ explained at the recent
security dialogue.
DERSE