REACTION TO SURPRISE TRACK II DIPLOMATIC MISSION TO NK

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SUBJECT: REACTION TO SURPRISE TRACK II DIPLOMATIC MISSION TO NK

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1. (U) On June 28, Armenian Ambassador to Russia Armen Smbatian and
Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbuloglu visited the region
of Nagorno Karabakh, accompanied by representatives of the Armenian
and Azerbaijani intellectual elite. While there, Smbatian and
Bulbuloglu reportedly met with Arkadi Ghukasian, president of the
so-called "Nagorno Karabakh Republic." The parties traveled to
Khankandi and Shusha before moving on to Yerevan to visit Armenian
President Robert Kocharian, and then traveled to Baku in order to
visit Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. On Friday, June 29
Bulbuloglu and his colleagues held a press conference in Baku in
order to discuss their trip, its purpose and its outcome (septel).


2. (SBU) Reaction to the trip was mixed, but generally positive.
While the GOAJ initially seemed to distance itself from the trip,
GOAJ statements - and President Aliyev's June 29 meeting with the
Azerbaijani delegation - indicate that the trip was carried out with
GOAJ support and approval. Many analysts and newspapers, however,
complain that the GOAJ has not provided enough information on the
reasoning behind the Track II mission, and question why, if the
government wanted the meetings to be unofficial, an Ambassador was
sent as the head of the Azerbaijani delegation on this mission.

Azerbaijani Government Reaction
--------------

3 (SBU) News of the surprise June 28 mission firstbroke in
Azerbaijan on the evening of June 28. he Foreign Ministry appears
to have been caught ff-guard by the Mission. MFA Spokesman Khazar
Ibahim told the press on June 28 that "the trip to Krabakh is the
personal initiative of the two ambssadors - the former ministers of
culture of Azerbaijan and Armenia." Ibrahim explained that a
meeting with "representatives of the Nagorno Karabakh community"
took place in Khankandi. He emphasized that those meetings "cannot
be viewed as recognition of Karabakh as a party to the conflict
since it happened at the personal initiatives of the ambassadors."
Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov later told the
press on June 28 that "without the consent of the (Azerbaijani)
leadership, the trip would not have taken place." He cautioned that
the trip did not indicate a change in Azerbaijan's policy toward NK:
"Still, Azerbaijan has not changed its position on the possible
integration of (Nagorno Karabakh) into the negotiation process."
Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov told the press on July 2 that
"within the context of the Minsk Group negotiations, there are
opportunities for the participation of community representatives -
both of the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno
Karabakh." He said that "once the question of occupation is decided,
opportunities for negotiations between communities and their
representatives and the government Azerbaijan will probably be
created."

Initial Public Reaction Critical
--------------


4. (SBU) Although most analysts and political leaders initially
greeted news of the surprise Track II mission with concern and
questions, reaction warmed over the weekend, as the public digested
the details from Bulbuloglu's press conference. Not surprisingly,
Karabakh Liberation Organization leader Akif Nagi condemned
Bulbuloglu's visit to Karabakh as "a disgrace and dishonour," and
called for the resignation of Ambassador Bulbuloglu, according to
Azerbaijani news agency Turan. Nagi demanded that Bulbuloglu and
the parties provide additional information regarding the trip and
who they met while on the trip. (Nagi and other KLO members also
tried to disrupt Bulbuloglu's press conference, septel.)


5. (SBU) Opposition leaders also were initially critical of the
Track II mission. Sardar Jalaloglu, acting chair of the Azerbaijan
Democratic Party, emphasized the risk involved in Bulbuloglu's trip.
Jalaloglu said that the Ambassador was not authorized to speak on
behalf of the state, and considers it "dangerous" to present Nagorno
Karabakh as a party to the conflict. Still, Jalaloglu noted that
because he considers the citizens of Nagorno Karabakh to be
Azerbaijan's citizens, it is therefore "not reasonable" to give a
political opinion of the visit. Isa Gambar, chairman of opposition
party Musavat, said that "there is a definite need for more
information from (official) Baku about this trip." Gambar
reportedly expressed great surprise upon hearing about the trip.


6. (SBU) Nizami Bahmanov, leader of the Azerbaijani community of
Nagorno Karabakh in exile, was far more welcoming of the mission,
telling the press that "every citizen of Shusha, every citizen of
Azerbaijan who is temporarily displaced sooner or later should
return to his or her land." Moreover, Bahmanov stated his belief
that the visit would prove critical to developing an environment of

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mutual trust between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and expressed hope that
the trip will prove Azerbaijan's commitment to peaceful negotiation.


But Opinion Warms as More Details Emerge
--------------


7. (SBU) Following Bulbuloglu's June 29 press conference, public
opinion of the Track II initiative slowly warmed. Anar
Mammadkhanov, an MP, said that "I view this visit - as well as the
meetings with the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents - as a
positive step. Lately, the non-constructive stance of the Armenian
leadership has increased the chances that war will break out. But if
there is even the smallest chance that we can settle this conflict
in a peaceful way, we must seize it. Azerbaijan has once again
demonstrated its good will and commitment not only in words, but
also in actions."


8. (SBU) Rasim Musabayov, an independent political analyst, said
that "in my mind, this is all about preparing nations for a
compromise. Even though the mission was supposedly 'unofficial,'
the delegates are people with public positions. Given the level of
the meetings, this clearly had to have been blessed by (the
respective governments)." He also emphasized that the delegates
were themselves mostly Shusha natives, a fact which, to him, drove
home the damaging nature of the division between Karabakh and
Azerbaijan. "The main purpose of this trip was to convince Karabakh
Armenians that we need to live together," he said. "There is a need
to find solutions. These meetings don't harm anyone - and
eventually, they may bring about positive results."


9. (SBU) Eldar Namazov, an independent political analyst (who also
has been involved in Track II initiatives),sought more details on
the GOAJ's role. He said that "I have no doubt as to the patriotism
of either Polad (Bulbuloglu) or Farhad (Badalbayli),and I am sure
that this type of visit was not exclusively conceived of and
supported by these men. This was a political initiative that was
implemented with the support of the government of Azerbaijan - as a
result, the administration should explain the trip's purpose."


10. (SBU) The Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP) issued
a statement on the recent visit to the occupied territories of
Azerbaijan, stating that "ANIP seriously condemns the defeated
policy of the administration and the visit to the country-aggressor
and occupied territories. It is treated as disrespect to the people
of Azerbaijan. This visit demonstrated that the promises given by
the administration on settlement of the conflict were not sincere.
It serves the goals of the other side. The solution is only possible
through military operation and in accordance with the international
law provisions Azerbaijani government should use its right to
liberate the occupied territories."

Coverage of the Trip in Newspapers and Media Sources
-------------- --------------


11. (U) The independent and pro-opposition media in Azerbaijan
presented mixed but largely positive reactions to the visit. In
general, the coverage of the trip on pro-government television and
in official newspapers was straightforward, and carried no comment.
One 525-ci GAZET article quoted Bulbuloglu as saying that while an
older generation that still remembers its neighbors still lives, we
should look for ways to communicate and to build bridges.


12. (U) On June 29 the independent ZERKALO newspaper carried a
front-page article ridiculing the MFA's shrugging the visit off as
the Ambassadors' personal initiative. "Ambassadors are personal
representatives of Presidents and the initiative must have been
sanctioned at the highest level," wrote ZERKALO on June 29. "No, we
do not call for Bulbuloglu to be punished. If you are not at war,
then you should conduct dialogue at all levels. But one should at
least tell the public the truth - including the reasons behind such
missions - instead of ascribing them to the personal initiatives of
Ambassadors", concluded ZERKALO.


13. (U) "The Cursed" headlines a column in the pro-opposition
BIZIM YOL newspaper. "I wonder what they talked about with
Gukasyan? Did they mind that the emblem and the flag above their
heads symbolizes separatism from Azerbaijan? Did Bulbuloglu mind
that Gukasyan was the very person who gave the command to destroy
his father's bust in Shusha? What nationality do these three people
belong to?" wrote a columnist in the pro-opposition AZADLIQ
newspaper.


14. (U) Another pro-opposition newspaper, YENI MUSAVAT,
characterized the visit as an example of "the government starting a
dialogue with separatists." The newspaper questioned the purpose

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behind the mission launched "apparently under the Kremlin's
initiative". Despite what Bulbuluglu says about his own reasons and
purposes, he is Azerbaijan's Ambassador to Russia. And as such, his
visit to occupied Khankendi can be regarded as nothing more than
groveling before the separatists", concluded YENI MUSAVAT.


15. (U) Asked by APA news agency about the U.S. position and
whether the Minsk Group had a direct role in organizing the visit,
Embassy PAO responded that although the Co-Chairs had not organized
the visit, the U.S. fully supports such people-to-people exchanges.
The PAO continued by noting that such contacts lower tensions and
contribute to efforts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict.
These remarks were widely reported by the Azerbaijani print and
broadcast media.


16. (SBU) Comment: Given the heated public criticism that has
accompanied other Track II diplomatic missions in the past, reaction
to Ambassador Bulbuloglu's initiative has been surprisingly
positive. The GOAJ's implicit endorsement of this initiative - as
conveyed by President Aliyev's meeting with the Azerbaijani
delegation - certainly played a key role in toning down rhetoric in
the pro-government and independent press. While we view this Track
II initiative as a positive and much-needed step in helping to
prepare a climate of peace, the somewhat fumbled roll-out of this
initiative indicates that much work still needs to be done to lay
the groundwork for sustainable tolerance-building activities.

DERSE