Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BAKU689
2007-06-01 14:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

PRESIDENT ALIYEV REVIEWS ENERGY AND REGIONAL

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG MASS PBTS KDEM IR RU AJ 
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INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 2169
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 BAKU 000689 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG MASS PBTS KDEM IR RU AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV REVIEWS ENERGY AND REGIONAL
SECURITY; SAYS AZERBAIJAN NEEDS SECURITY GUARANTEES

REF: A. STATE 68180

B. BAKU 647

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 BAKU 000689

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG MASS PBTS KDEM IR RU AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV REVIEWS ENERGY AND REGIONAL
SECURITY; SAYS AZERBAIJAN NEEDS SECURITY GUARANTEES

REF: A. STATE 68180

B. BAKU 647

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: In a May 29 meeting with visiting OVP
Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs Joseph Wood
and the Ambassador, President Aliyev reviewed prospects for
new southern corridor energy initiatives. Urging the U.S. to
support new Turkmen President Burdimuhamedov, Aliyev said
Azerbaijan is slowly rebuilding its relationship with
Turkmenistan in hopes of orienting it toward the West.
Aliyev believes that Turkmenistan will join the East-West
energy corridor once Azerbaijan begins exporting gas to
Europe. Aliyev affirmed Azerbaijan's intent to export gas to
Europe, but said it needs more time to develop its resources.
He also said that SOCAR had begun discussions with Turkey on
a gas transit agreement and continued U.S.-Azerbaijani
cooperation would be key to moving this project forward.


2. (C) Summary Continued: Characterizing Iran as "very
dangerous and unpredictable," Aliyev said that "any
interference in Iran will have implications for Azerbaijan."
To counter the risks posed by its proximity to Iran, Aliyev
said that Azerbaijan needs "more integration into
Euro-Atlantic structures" and "security guarantees, just in
case." While Aliyev affirmed Azerbaijan's commitment to
political reform, he blamed deteriorating media freedoms on
"certain persons who are journalists" who use the media to
"insult, violate and attack others," and said that those
officials who have been insulted need to defend themselves.
Aliyev complained that Ukraine and Georgia have similar
problems and are cited as models of democracy, yet Azerbaijan
is held to a different standard. End summary.

US-Azerbaijan Relationship
--------------


3. (C) In a May 29 meeting with President Aliyev, Deputy

Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs
Joseph Wood conveyed the Vice President's warm regards to
President Aliyev. The United States recognizes that
Azerbaijan's strategic choice to integrate with the West
entails risks, and appreciates Azerbaijan's courage and
leadership in the region.


4. (C) President Aliyev responded that he is very satisfied
with the bilateral relationship. Azerbaijan and the United
States are working as "real partners," particularly in the
fields of energy, security and regional development, all of
which are strongly inter-related. Azerbaijan's strategic
choice is clear, Aliyev said; Azerbaijan wants to become a
"model country," well-integrated into the Euro-Atlantic
structure. Its policy is open, straightforward and clearly
indicated by its concrete actions. Aliyev noted that the
level of US-Azerbaijan cooperation is higher than our public
statements or protocol arrangements may indicate; the proof,
he said, is in the concrete results achieved by the
partnership.

Turkmenistan and Energy
--------------


5. (C) Aliyev said that Foreign Minister Mammadyarov's May
23 visit to Turkmenistan was successful. Noting that
Azerbaijan had "no relationship" with former President
Niyazov, Aliyev said that communications with new Turkmen
President Burdimuhamedov had started a few months ago, when
Burdimuhamedov phoned Aliyev and expressed his willingness to
engage, a move that Aliyev characterized as a "good sign."
In spite of this positive gesture, Aliyev said that
Turkmenistan continues to send diplomatic notes of protest
regarding disputed Caspian oil fields. Nevertheless, Aliyev
believes that Burdimuhamedov is "more realistic" than Niyazov
and understands that Turkmenistan needs partnership, not
isolation. "We need to support him," Aliyev said. (Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov provided Wood further detail on recent,
positive engagement and next steps with Turkmenistan, septel.)


6. (C) Azerbaijan's example, Aliyev continued, is a good
signal for those who are "hesitant and under the influence of
regional powers." The recent, dueling energy summits in
Poland and Kazakhstan were a clear indication of the current
state of regional politics. While Poland and Azerbaijan had

BAKU 00000689 002 OF 006


been planning the Krakow Energy Summit for several months,
Aliyev said that Putin had organized the Kazakhstan Summit
"at the last minute." Yet what Azerbaijan has managed to
achieve -- specifically saying "no" to Russian gas -- showed
that it is possible to promote a country's national interests
in the face of Russian pressure. If Turkmenistan follows the
same model, Aliyev said, there will be positive results. If
not, Turkmenistan will be "100 percent dependent on Russia
and will lose money and political advantages." In that case,
Aliyev continued, Turkmenistan will continue to be a
"semi-colony of Russia." This is "their choice," Aliyev
said, but Azerbaijan is willing to orient Turkmenistan in
"our direction."


7. (C) In response to a question from Wood, Aliyev said that
he believes it is premature to engage the Turkmen leadership
in a discussion of the Petronas deal. During his May 23
trip, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov had only "modest"
discussions on this issue with President Burdimuhamedov.
Aliyev commented that this is the right approach, as
Azerbaijan first needs to build confidence with Turkmenistan
and then engage on sensitive issues. He added that Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov had asked Burdimuhamedov to reopen the
Turkmen Embassy in Azerbaijan. Once Turkmenistan does so,
then Azerbaijan hopes to engage in energy-related
discussions. Some of Turkmenistan's resources, Aliyev noted,
logically should be exported through Azerbaijan. However,
Turkmenistan should not believe that the development of
Caspian gas resources depends on it alone; Azerbaijan, Aliyev
said, has gas reserves of 1.2 trillion cubic meters in the
Shah Deniz field, and 300 billion cubic meters in the ACG
field, and there could be still more gas.

Gas to Europe
--------------


8. (C) Azerbaijan can be a reliable supplier of gas to
Europe, Aliyev said; it "just needs time." Noting that
Azerbaijan had provided 1.3 million cubic meters to Georgia
per day when Russia cut its gas supplies to Georgia, Aliyev
said that experience had proven that Azerbaijan can both
"live without Russian gas and help our friends." Now that
Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field is producing, Georgian
President Saakashvili had asked Aliyev to resume gas
shipments to Georgia. Aliyev said that Azerbaijan had
resumed shipments, and that Georgia is now receiving 1
million cubic meters from Shah Deniz and 1.3 million cubic
meters from SOCAR's fields. Georgia, Aliyev said, can now
"forget Gazprom" because Azerbaijan had helped it attain a
stronger position vis-a-vis Russia.


9. (C) Azerbaijan will be a gas supplier to Europe, Aliyev
affirmed. We will have enough gas, but we need time to
develop more. If Turkmenistan joins, the South Caucasus
region could be a serious competitor to Gazprom. Aliyev said
he believes Turkmenistan will join the East-West transit
corridor when Azerbaijan starts supplying gas to Europe.
Aliyev noted that the Hungarian Foreign Minister had been in
Azerbaijan recently, and had been briefed on Azerbaijan's
approximate production profile. He said that Azerbaijan
previously had not been part of the Nabucco gas pipeline
discussions, but now that Iranian gas was "out of the
question," and Turkmen gas was "under question," Azerbaijan
is exploring the possibilities for Nabucco. However,
Azerbaijan will not be prepared to join Nabucco under the
current timelines, Aliyev said. Until 2012, Azerbaijan's
Shah Deniz gas will go only to Turkey and Greece. Shah Deniz
production, Aliyev continued, depends on BP and "we don't
have a lot of leverage." Aliyev said that Azerbaijan needs
to increase its own gas production. To that end, he has
instructed SOCAR to increase production to 8 bcm and
"probably more" in later years. Right now, however, Aliyev
said that Azerbaijan cannot guarantee production. Azerbaijan
also wants to be a Nabucco shareholder, an idea that Aliyev
said the Hungarians accept. He said that he has spoken to
OMV, EC Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner and the Romanians about
this. Aliyev noted that the Nabucco project depends on
supply; construction is linked to proven reserves. Nabucco
needs partners with proven resources in order to attract the
necessary investment. He noted that the Nabucco project is
relatively new to Azerbaijan; it is good news but Azerbaijan
nevertheless needs to adjust and plan its long-term
production.


BAKU 00000689 003 OF 006



10. (C) Turning to Trans-Caspian energy issues, Aliyev said
that May 19 energy summit in Kazakhstan "doesn't mean
anything" and was a "public relations framework." He said he
is only a "little concerned" about Kazakhstan's position,
which he characterized as "not very clear." Noting that
President Nazarbayev tells Azerbaijan one thing, and then
tells Russia another thing -- and the US something else,
Aliyev added with a laugh -- Aliyev said that Nazarbayev had
sent his son-in-law to Azerbaijan just after Putin's energy
summit to clarify Kazakhstan's position. Aliyev said that
Nazarbayev's son-in-law had assured him that Nazarbayev is a
"strong advocate" for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline
and that Putin's energy summit was "just politics." Aliyev
said he has "no doubts" that Kazakhstani oil will enter BTC,
as Russia will not allow Kazakhstan to increase its exports
through the Novorossiysk pipeline, and both Chevron and Total
are interested in using the BTC pipeline. Moreover,
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan already are in discussions over
tanker construction for Trans-Caspian transport. The two
countries also could build a subsea oil pipeline, Aliyev
noted, and neither Russia nor Iran could object.


11. (C) Aliyev said that SOCAR President Abdullayev had
recently begun discussions with Turkey on a gas transit
agreement. "We need an agreement," Aliyev said, because
"Turkey wants to take all the gas and redistribute it."
However, Aliyev believes Turkey's attitude has "changed a
lot" and there will be "no problem" in reaching a transit
agreement. The two sides simply need to coordinate efforts
and plan what to do, Aliyev said, adding that the US and
Azerbaijan are the two key countries in moving this and all
other regional energy projects ahead. Europe and Asia, he
continued, are "moved by our policy." "We initiate, produce,
and build infrastructure, and they join." "The US and
Azerbaijan need to coordinate what issues to raise with
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and Hungary; we also need to
persuade the Europeans not to be dependent on Russia, and to
persuade Turkey not to create obstacles, and to neutralize
Russia and Iran," Aliyev said. In response to a question
from the Ambassador, Aliyev said that he was not aware of
plans for a July TGI signing ceremony, and questioned whether
Turkey would be ready to receive gas through the SCP pipeline
at that time. He noted that he had spoken to Turkish PM
Erdogan just a few days ago, and that Erdogan had not
mentioned the signing ceremony.

Lavrov Visit
--------------


12. (C) Noting that Russian Foreign Minister had
characterized the Krakow Energy Summit as an "anti-Russian"
summit, Aliyev said that he had raised this with Lavrov
during his May 21-22 visit to Baku. Aliyev said he told
Lavrov that just as it is in Russia's interest to build
pipelines, it also is in Azerbaijan's interest to build
pipelines. Following their discussions, Lavrov had issued a
statement clarifying that the Krakow summit was not
"anti-Russia," a statement that Aliyev said indicated Russia
recognized that Azerbaijan has its own interests and respects
those interests. Aliyev said that Lavrov left Azerbaijan
satisfied by his discussions, "even though he had no reason
to be satisfied." In addition to energy, Aliyev said that he
and Lavrov also discussed Russian broadcasting, and agreed to
allow broadcasting only on a reciprocal basis. When it
became clear that Azerbaijan intended to halt Russian
broadcasts on its national channels, Aliyev said that Lavrov
agreed to allow Azerbaijani Television to broadcast on
Russian national channels in exchange for Russian broadcasts
on Azerbaijani TV channels.


13. (C) In response to a question from Wood, Aliyev said he
thinks that Russia does not have a long-term strategy.
Instead, Aliyev said, Russia is using energy as a political
instrument, as evident in its actions against Georgia,
Ukraine, and Azerbaijan. And when Russia's policies failed,
Russia's "imperialistic attitude" emerged. Aliyev said that
the Russian leadership has done "bad things to destabilize
Ukraine," and has tried to use energy policy to "blackmail"
Georgia and Azerbaijan. Because the EU has no energy policy,
Aliyev said, it too can be manipulated by Russia on a
bilateral basis. Russia "thinks it can do whatever it
wants," a situation he characterized as very different from
the Russia of five years ago. Russia's tough, anti-Western
rhetoric is growing, Aliyev said, and "tomorrow could be more

BAKU 00000689 004 OF 006


than rhetoric." This anti-Western attitude is not limited to
President Putin; it is shared by the broader population and
is deeply influenced by the "brainwashing and propaganda" of
the Russian media. The strong propaganda focus of the
Russian media, Aliyev noted, was an important reason behind
his decision to halt Russian broadcasts on Azerbaijani
frequencies. Russian television, he said, has a strong
anti-Georgian tone and sometimes a mild anti-Azerbaijani
tone. With respect to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
however, Aliyev said the Russian media is completely
pro-Armenian. Russian television, Aliyev concluded, is an
ideological instrument that is being used to propagate a
strong anti-Western message.

Iran: Azerbaijan Needs Security Guarantees
--------------


14. (C) Iran is "dangerous - very dangerous and
unpredictable," Aliyev said. Noting that diplomatic steps so
far have not led to any changes in Iran, Aliyev sighed and
said that any developments in Iran can lead to complications
in Azerbaijan. Shaking his head, he added that "any
interference in Iran will have implications for us." He
added that military action against Iran would have serious
humanitarian and security implications for Azerbaijan. For
this reason, Azerbaijan tries to "minimize risks." Aliyev
said that Azerbaijan needs more integration into
Euro-Atlantic structures; it also needs "security guarantees,
just in case."


15. (C) In response to a question from Wood, Aliyev said
that he does not believe that Azerbaijan's growing
relationship with the United States is having any impact on
Iran's behavior. "Iran is ready for isolation," Aliyev said;
"They have chosen isolation deliberately and it is the only
way for them to survive." Iran prefers to see Azerbaijan as
weak and poor, yet the reality undermines this. "Thousands"
of Iranians travel to Azerbaijan - and particularly to
Nakhchivan -- and they see that the situation in Azerbaijan
is good and improving, relative to Iran. Yet Iran poses many
problems for Azerbaijan, Aliyev continued, particularly in
the areas of security and a huge, potential refugee problem
in the event of a conflict in Iran. Iran has "almost 30
million ethnic Azeris," Aliyev noted, and "some very stupid
politicians here advocate 'reunification.' From our
position, we would be absorbed!"

Turkey and Political Islam
--------------


16. (C) Aliyev continued that the "religious factor" is of
increasing concern, although Turkey currently is of more
concern than Iran. "Islamization in Turkey is very bad for
us," Aliyev said, as Azerbaijan no longer has a model of
secular development to follow. Aliyev said that "some
forces" are trying to export religious movements from Turkey,
a phenomenon he characterized as "more dangerous" than
similar Iranian religious activities. Ordinary Azerbaijanis
have "an allergy to the Iranian mullahs," he said, while they
are more open to religious and cultural influences from
Turkey.


17. (C) Aliyev noted that he had recently traveled to Egypt,
where he was stunned to see that Egypt -- one of the most
secular Arab countries in the 1960s and 1970s -- is now
"completely Islamic." The Muslim Brotherhood holds 25
percent of the seats in parliament, Aliyev said, and if open
elections were held today, the Muslim Brotherhood would win.
Although Azerbaijan currently "does not have "problems like
that, we may have them if we don't control the situation and
take measures to prevent it," Aliyev said.


18. (C) Looking back at the Turkish experience, Aliyev noted
that the Islamic movement in Turkey got its start in the
early 1990s, and grew in popularity in response to the
corruption problems in the secular government. "If we don't
take measures today, we could have the same situation in 15
to 20 years," Aliyev said. His government sees European
integration and sustainable development as the key to
preventing the rise of political Islam. Aliyev said he is
investing in education and sports programs to keep young
people involved in secular rather than religious activities.
Government efficiency also is important, Aliyev said, noting
that secular Turkish politicians "discredited themselves."

BAKU 00000689 005 OF 006


Erdogan is a "nice person," but he is an Islamist, which is a
problem. Aliyev concluded that the rise of political Islam
is a "potential problem" that Azerbaijan always needs to take
into account.


19. (C) Turning again to internal Turkish politics, Aliyev
predicted that there will be direct popular elections in
Turkey which will result in the election of an Islamist
president. At that point, Aliyev continued, the Turkish army
will "say words," which will lead to either a coup or a civil
war. Commenting that Turkey was heading into a very
dangerous situation, Aliyev said that it was a mistake for
Erdogan to have nominated Gul; he should have nominated
someone else.

Media Freedom
--------------


20. (C) In response to the Ambassador's request that Aliyev
address the current state of media freedoms, particularly
with respect to Azerbaijan's commitments to democratization
(ref a),Aliyev said that political reform is part of
Azerbaijan's Euro-Atlantic integration policy. Political
reform is included in Azerbaijan's newly adopted National
Security Concept (ref b) and Azerbaijan has taken practical
steps to implement its commitments, including "good
successes" in its NATO and EU commitments. Azerbaijan's
commitment to political reform is "unchanged," Aliyev said,
and the Government is "doing everything possible to be more
open and to bring relations closer with Europe and the United
States."


21. (C) Aliyev said that he "would not link the media
situation to our general political line." Asserting that
Azerbaijan "doesn't have any problems with the media," Aliyev
said that the current situation is due to the arrest of
"certain persons who are journalists," which creates the
perception of violations of freedom of speech. Instead,
certain people are using the media to "insult, violate and
attack" others. These people who have been attacked by the
media "must have the opportunity to defend themselves,"
Aliyev said. Noting that he personally had issued a public
appeal for a moratorium on criminal libel suits two years
ago, Aliyev said this had no effect on the situation. In
spite of his appeal, there were more "brutal attacks" on
government officials in the media, includingon officials'
family members. Azerbaijan has a ifferent mentality, Aliyev
said; it is more Easten than European and, in keeping with
its traditins, people defend themselves against attacks in
he media. "I think this can help normalize the siuation,"
Aliyev said.


22. (C) Aliyev said tht both Ukraine and Georgia have worse
human rights problems, yet they are lauded by the West as
democratic examples. Although Yushchenko is a "friend,"
Aliyev said that he had "brutally violated Ukraine's
constitution, dissolving parliament and firing prosecutors."
Similarly, Saakashvili arrested opposition figures because
they spoke to Ossetians. Aliyev said that one journalist in
Azerbaijan has been arrested because he spoke to Ghoukassian
(President of the so-called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic) and
has been in contact with the Armenian Special Services.
(Note: Aliyev presumably is referring to jailed editor
Eynulla Fatullayev, whom the Ministry of National Security
currently is investigating for alleged coup-plotting
activities.) "There is a perception in the West that Georgia
and Ukraine are democratic, and Azerbaijan is different,"
Aliyev said. "We didn't do anything different." Turning
again to the current media freedom problems, Aliyev said "I
personally regret that this happens. I was declared a
predator, one of the ten worst enemies of the press. This is
not very helpful. But if I'm on that list, it can't be any
worse."

GUAM Summit
--------------


23. (C) In conclusion, Aliyev said that it is very important
for Azerbaijan and the United States to exchange views. "We
need to be in close, constant contact as we consult and move
forward." Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan would soon host the
GUAM summit (June 18-19) and that he hoped the United States
would send representatives to the summit. All four GUAM
heads of state, plus several other European presidents plan

BAKU 00000689 006 OF 006


to attend. Aliyev confirmed that the GUAM Secretariat would
be established and said that a Georgian Deputy Foreign
Minister had been selected to serve as the Secretary General.
GUAM, he said, will function as a normal regional
organization, with a focus on energy and transportation
projects that he hopes the United States will support.

Comment
--------------


24. (C) Aliyev was relaxed and engaged throughout this
hour-long discussion and clearly relished the opportunity to
share views on regional energy and security issues with Wood.
This is the first time that he has explicitly articulated in
Baku his desire for "security guarantees" from the United
States. Aliyev's unapologetically tough stance on media
freedom is consistent with what we have heard in the past
from Aliyev and his closest advisors, including his Chief of
Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev. Aliyev's unresponsiveness with respect
to current problems with the media may be due in part to the
often personal nature of press reporting here, and the strong
role that personal relationships and reputations play in
Azerbaijani culture and politics. It is also discounts,
however, the important role that an independent, ethical and
professional media must play in strengthening Azerbaijan's
democratic institutions and promoting good governance.
Continued high-level dialogue with Aliyev and his key
advisors is essential to address this problem; we plan, as a
next step, a joint demarche with like-minded diplomatic
colleagues on Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev -- who told Wood
on May 30, on a confidential basis, that the President is
contemplating a meeting with journalists in June to discuss a
program for developing the media (septel).


25. (U) Wood cleared this message.
DERSE