Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BAKU584
2007-05-15 12:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

PRESIDENT ALIYEV,S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR REIEWS

Tags:  PGOV PREL ENRG MARR AMGT ABLD CASC AJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5519
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKB #0584/01 1351214
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151214Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2999
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 2130
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 000584 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG MARR AMGT ABLD CASC AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV,S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR REIEWS
REGIONAL ISSUES, DEMOCRATIC REFORM

REF: BAKU 00545

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 000584

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG MARR AMGT ABLD CASC AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV,S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR REIEWS
REGIONAL ISSUES, DEMOCRATIC REFORM

REF: BAKU 00545

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz
Mammadov flagged President Aliyev's planned attendance at the
upcoming energy summit in Poland as a "very important" step
to reassure Europe. The GOAJ hopes for progress in bilateral
relations with Turkmenistan in 2007, although Baku is
pursuing a "step-by-step strategy" with Ashgabat. On Iran,
Mammadov said Tehran has been pressuring Baku every month for
the past several months to agree to an official visit to
Baku, and that Baku may have to agree to a September visit.
Mammadov acknowledged that Presidential Chief of State Ramiz
Mehdiyev played a role in organizing the March opening of a
CIS democracy organization and that the organization would
have a hand in monitoring the 2008 presidential election. On
the June 18-19 GUAM summit, Mammadov said the GOAJ seeks to
strengthen the organization, but he also acknowledged the
organization's lack of coherence.


2. (C) Summary continued: On domestic dynamics, Mammadov
proposed that the Ambassador and other Western Ambassadors
engage Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev on
democracy, human rights, and processes related to the
presidential election. Mammadov emphasized that it is very
important "to explain all processes" to Mehdiyev, and that
western countries need to start talking about election
cooperation now. Mammadov said it is "my personal interest"
to further the process of Azerbaijan's pro-western
orientation, but "I cannot influence all of the negative
processes that I see." Mammadov said some GOAJ officials do
not believe it is in Azerbaijan's interest to join the WTO,
but acknowledged the serious nature of Azerbaijan's
corruption problems, suggesting there could be an eventual

"collapse" if corruption is left unattended. End Summary.

Advancing the Bilateral Security Dialogue
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador began her May 4 meeting with
Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov by
stating that since the problem regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh
language in the Armenia section of the Human Rights Report
has been resolved, the USG looks forward to rescheduling the
bilateral security dialogue in the near future. Mammadov
said that there is "no problem" now, but "we did not
understand the reason for the (original) change."

Regional and Energy Developments
--------------


4. (C) Mammadov noted that President Aliyev's attendance at
the upcoming energy summit in Poland is "very important"
because the other three attending Presidents -- from Poland,
Georgia, and Ukraine -- all need Azerbaijani oil and gas.
Mammadov said Putin will "not be happy" that President Aliyev
is going because the GOAJ is sending an important signal to
Europe by attending the meeting. Mammadov observed that
Kazakh President Nazarbayev was invited, but he made his
attendance conditional on whether Putin would attend.


5. (C) Regarding Turkmenistan, Mammadov was optimistic that
the GOAJ could "achieve some results" in 2007. Caspian
delimitation talks are going "normally," according to
Mammadov; the GOAJ is still trying to arrange a visit by
Foreign Minister Mammadyarov to Ashgabat. Mammadov noted,
however, that the GOAJ is not following a strategy of
pressuring Ashgabat on a trans-Caspian pipeline. Instead,
the GOAJ is pursuing a "step-by-step strategy" on this issue.



6. (C) The Ambassador asked about the status of a gas
transit agreement with Turkey. Mammadov said "I cannot
respond concretely," but in general, believes there is no
problem in moving toward an accord.


7. (C) On Iran, the Ambassador raised Minister of Economic
Development Heydar Babayev's recent statements on expanding
economic relations with Iran. The Ambassador noted that it
was very important for Azerbaijan to comply with UN attempts
to limit Iran's nuclear program. Mammadov acknowledged the
Ambassador's point, but said that Tehran has been pressuring
Baku for months to schedule an official visit to Azerbaijan.
Mammadov explained that the Azerbaijani Ambassador in Tehran
has received Iranian proposals for a visit by Ahmadinejad to
Baku every month. The GOAJ has found pretexts to refuse
these requests, but "it is very difficult" to continue
denying these requests and there may be a visit in September.

BAKU 00000584 002 OF 004




8. (C) The Ambassador asked Mammadov for background about
recent reports of several new Russian institutions in
Azerbaijan, especially the Commonwealth of Independent
States' (CIS) International Institute for the Monitoring of
the Development of Democracy and Observance of Electoral
Rights. (Note: Per reftel, this CIS institution was opened
in March by visiting Russian Federation Council Chairman
Sergei Mironov. We have been anticipating that this CIS
institutions will play an election monitoring role in the
September 2008 Presiential election.) Mammadov was
remarkably candi on this issue, stating that Mehdiyev was
instruental in organizing this structure, which Mehdiyev
believes "could be helpful" for the presidential election.
Regarding Russia, the Ambassador confirmed to Mammadov that
press reports alleging US-Russian discussions about the
Gabala radar station's incorporation into a missile defense
architecture were entirely false.


9. (C) Regarding Belarusian President Lukashenko's May 1-3
visit to Baku, the Ambassador observed that this visit is
raising concern in Washington and detracts from Azerbaijan's
reformist image. Mammadov indicated the visit was partly
reciprocal and personal in nature as President Aliyev visited
Belarus in October 2006. Mammadov said that during President
Aliyev's October 2006 visit to Minsk, Lukashenko pledged to
assist Azerbaijan in "some areas" for an "inexpensive price."
(Note: In October 2006, Belarus promised to create a tractor
factory in Azerbaijan, as well as supply farm equipment to
Baku.)

GUAM Summit Preview
--------------


10. (C) Mammadov said the GOAJ wants to strengthen GUAM
during the June 18-19 GUAM summit in Baku. Mammadov
highlighted Ukraine's domestic political situation as a key
constraint on the organization's coherence. Mammadov noted
three problems regarding the upcoming summit: the Ukrainian
Duma has not ratified several key GUAM documents, Ukrainian
President Yushchenko's political future is unclear, and
Moldovan President Voronin probably will not come. Mammadov
confirmed that Yushchenko and Saakashvili will attend.
Mammadov said a key GOAJ priority within GUAM is gaining
support for an UNGA resolution on the protracted conflicts.
Mammadov observed that we are "seeing if the four member
countries are together on this and other issues," and that
the organization can serve as a hedge against Russia's
regional influence.


11. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about the
GOAJ's vision for GUAM, Mammadov highlighted several areas.
First, Azerbaijan wants good political coordination and
dialogue among GUAM members. Second, the GOAJ wants to
bolster economic cooperation among members. Mammadov argued
that the Soviet-era trend of ineffective multilateral
organizations -- as seen in the CIS -- has "persisted" in
GUAM. Finally, the GOAJ wants to enhance cooperation within
GUAM on military and other unspecified areas. Mammadov noted
that previous projects suggested and funded by the USG have
not succeeded. Mammadov stated, however, that all GUAM
members are still young countries and the GOAJ still wants to
keep trying to bolster the GUAM framework.

Nagorno-Karabakh Tidbits
--------------


12. (C) Regarding a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK)
conflict, Mammadov said it is important to have yearly "new
elements or initiatives" to keep the process alive. Mammadov
said that Russia and France perceive a lack of progress
toward a settlement as being in their interests. Without
clear context, Mammadov also said it is "not possible" for
there to be an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
(Note: It is unclear if Mammadov's skepticism was in
reference to a particular sticking point or the entire
process.)

Mehdiyev's Democracy Conference
--------------


13. (C) Mammadov said the GOAJ would be grateful for Embassy
assistance in finding a USG speaker for Presidential Chief of
Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev's May 23 Democracy Conference in light
of the Ambassador's inability to attend. Mammadov shared a
draft copy of the conference agenda with the Ambassador,
noting that the GOAJ had invited the British, Russian, and
U.S. Ambassadors to deliver speeches during the conference.
Mammadov observed that several Azerbaijani MP's and regional

BAKU 00000584 003 OF 004


academics have also been invited, including locally-respected
political commentator Rasim Musabayov. Mammadov noted that
the conference would be a good forum for discussing a variety
of democratic dynamics within the region.

New Forum with Mehdiyev
--------------


14. (C) Mammadov observed that there is a need "to organize
some counterbalance" in light of President Aliyev's recent
meetings with Presidents Lukashenko and Putin. Mammadov
emphasized that it is very important "to explain all
processes" to Mehdiyev, specifically to show the attitude of
the West toward a variety of domestic political issues for
which Mehdiyev is responsible. Mammadov suggested the
Ambassador, other Western ambassadors, and OSCE
representatives arrange a meeting with Mehdiyev "to conserve
the state of relations" between Azerbaijan and the West and
to prepare for the October 2008 election . Mammadov proposed
that the discussion focus on democracy, human rights, and
processes related to the presidential election, and he
suggested May 14-17 as potential dates. Mammadov underscored
that western countries need to start talking about election
cooperation now, not immediately before the election.


15. (C) The Ambassador welcomed Mammadov's suggestion and
pledged to follow up with her colleagues to arrange a meeting
with Mehdiyev. The Ambassador observed that it was
particularly important to focus on press freedom at this
time, as increasing problems here can easily undercut
Azerbaijan's image internationally. The Ambassador passed
Mammadov a copy of her May 3 World Press Freedom Day speech,
while noting the recent decision to grant ANS a broadcasting
license for six years was a positive step. Mammadov
underscored the importance of being able to deliver tough
messages "as a friend." (NOTE: The Ambassador conveyed
Mammadov,s comments to Ambassadors from the OSCE, Council of
Europe, UK, Norway and Germany (EU Presidency). All agreed
that a joint approach to Mehdiyev urging concrete steps to
improve Azerbaijan,s media climate could be effective. We
hope to make this joint approach this week.)


16. (C) Mammadov stated that the main direction of our
policy must be clear, implying the importance of Azerbaijan's
pro-western foreign policy. Doing his best to not directly
criticize Mehdiyev, Mammadov said it is "my personal
interest" to further the process of Azerbaijan's pro-western
orientation, but "I cannot influence all of the negative
processes that I see." Mammadov explained that his portfolio
only covers Azerbaijan's foreign relations and not its
domestic policies. Mammadov counseled that a meeting of the
western Ambassadors and Mehdiyev would be valuable because
Mehdiyev would have to report the results to President
Aliyev. Mammadov also acknowledged that perceptions matter
and it can be bad for President Aliyev to be meeting with
illiberal statesmen. The Ambassador affirmed this point,
commenting that because Azerbaijan is an increasingly
important country, many western officials are watching
Azerbaijan's internal developments closely.

WTO Accession
--------------


17. (C) The Ambassador raised the disturbing trend of rising
corruption within Azerbaijan's business climate. The
Ambassador noted that Azerbaijan's business climate has
worsened over the last year because of increasing corruption.
Many American companies are considering leaving Azerbaijan,
and this trend is hurting Azerbaijan's international image.
The Ambassador suggested that WTO accession could help
reverse this image problem.


18. (C) Mammadov noted that he does not work on WTO-related
issues, but he indicated that GOAJ officials do not agree on
the need to join the WTO. Mammadov said "some circles" in
the GOAJ are angry about the USG's public message on
Azerbaijan joining the WTO. Mammadov underscored the need to
address these issues in a "friendly, private" setting.
Mammadov observed that some GOAJ officials argue that joining
the WTO will undercut Azerbaijan's domestic productivity.
The Ambassador countered that this argument does not hold
water and is intended to protect some elites' monopolies.
The Ambassador said she wants to ensure that President Aliyev
gets the message that rising corruption is tarnishing
Azerbaijan's image.


19. (C) Mammadov said he did not know if all GOAJ ministers
understand how bad corruption is for Azerbaijan's image
abroad. Mammadov cryptically remarked that I know this is

BAKU 00000584 004 OF 004


"not the eternal way" and that this situation cannot continue
for ever. He suggested there could be an eventual "collapse"
if Azerbaijan does not address its corruption problem.

NEC
---


20. (C) The Ambassador said the USG is grateful for the
GOAJ's assistance in finding a suitable site for a New
Embassy Compound and that Presidential Aide Ali Asadov has
assisted the USG in this effort. Mammadov commented that he
was happy to hear this report and hoped that all issues would
be resolved in the near future.

Pending Adoptions
--------------


21. (U) The Ambassador raised the issue of pending adoption
cases. As noted in previous meetings, the Ambassador
reiterated that the USG needs the GOAJ's assistance in moving
these cases forward.

Comment
--------------


22. (C) Mammadov's has been a strong advocate of greater
engagement with the West -- and particularly the United
States -- and is one of the few officials in the Presidential
Apparat who has consistently offered this sort of candid,
behind-the-scenes advice on how best to promote further
reform. We will follow up on his suggested approach to
engage Mehdiyev with Western colleagues, as well as
bilaterally, on democracy, human rights and anti-corruption
issues.
DERSE