Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BAKU411
2007-04-11 11:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

PRESIDENT ALIYEV DISCUSSES RUSSIA, IRAN, ISLAM,

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG EPET KDEM PHUM ABLD AMGT CASC 
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DE RUEHKB #0411/01 1011144
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 111144Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2744
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNOSC/OSCE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAKU 000411 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR H: PLEASE PASS TO HPSCI PSM JAMES LEWIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EPET KDEM PHUM ABLD AMGT CASC
IR, RU, AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV DISCUSSES RUSSIA, IRAN, ISLAM,
AND EUROPE'S UNCLEAR ENERGY POLICY WITH REP. HOEKSTRA

REF: BAKU 264

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAKU 000411

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR H: PLEASE PASS TO HPSCI PSM JAMES LEWIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG EPET KDEM PHUM ABLD AMGT CASC
IR, RU, AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV DISCUSSES RUSSIA, IRAN, ISLAM,
AND EUROPE'S UNCLEAR ENERGY POLICY WITH REP. HOEKSTRA

REF: BAKU 264

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In an April 3 meeting with Representative
Hoekstra and the Ambassador, President Ilham Aliyev provided
a tour d'horizon of Azerbaijan's foreign policy, regional
geopolitics, energy policy and domestic development. Aliyev
argued that Azerbaijan was unique, bordered by its former
colonial rulers Russia and Iran. Aliyev said that since
obtaining independence from the USSR in 1992, Azerbaijan had
made great strides to secure its sovereignty and advance its
domestic development. He described relations with Russia as
predictable but said the Iranian regime was unpredictable,
noting that IRI President Ahmadinejad was not "a
straightforward man." Aliyev said military action against
Iran would be a disaster for Azerbaijan and ultimately
counterproductive for the United States. He added that US
support in the Muslim world was nonexistent today, largely
the result of the Iraq war and the ensuing sectarian
violence. Aliyev welcomed Azerbaijan's close partnership with
the US on energy and security, highlighting Azerbaijan's
increasing role as a regional energy leader, but believed
Caspian neighbors Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan were too
heavily influenced by Russian policy. Aliyev said that
Azerbaijan would deliver gas to the EU this year despite
Russian pressure to the contrary. Separately, Aliyev also
affirmed his support for USG efforts to secure three New
Embassy Compound (NEC) conditional leases, and for USG
efforts on behalf of American families seeking to adopt
Azerbaijani children. End Summary.


AZERBAIJAN: BETWEEN IRAN AND A HARD PLACE
--------------


2. (C) In a 90-minute meeting with Representative Peter
Hoekstra, ranking member of the House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence, and the Ambassador, President
Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan's geopolitical situation was
unique, "the only country bordered by both Russia and Iran."
Aliyev described Azerbaijan's relationship with Iran as
dominated by the fact that "30 million" ethnic Azeri Iranians
comprised the majority population of northern Iran. In this
sense, Aliyev opined, Azerbaijan was "a nation divided" not
of its own volition but by the actions of previous "colonial
rulers," the Persians and more recently the Soviets. The
historical effect of these "colonizations" and the geographic
location of modern Azerbaijan, sandwiched between its former
colonial rulers, had, in Aliyev's assessment, profoundly
shaped Azerbaijan's foreign policy: protecting and
consolidating Azerbaijan's sovereignty as a free and
independent country was the GOAJ's paramount objective.

THE IRANIANS ARE COMING...TO OUR DISCOS
--------------


3. (C) Aliyev said that immediately following Azerbaijan's
independence in 1992, Iran's influence within Azerbaijan
began to grow quickly, the result of the IRI's deliberate
export of its theocratic nationalism. Aliyev said that during
the early 1990s the IRI's policies led to an increase in the
number of Iranian Mullahs proselytizing in Azerbaijan and the
widespread dissemination of Iranian propaganda, and with it,
the more conservative Iranian version of Shiite Islam. Aliyev
placed the blame for Iran's early 1990s role squarely on
Azerbaijan's first post-Soviet government (led by then
President Elchibey) and its "unprofessionalism," which played
into the Iranians hands. Aliyev added that Iranian influence
at that time was especially pronounced in Karabakh refugee
communities where impoverished conditions prevailed.


4. (C) Aliyev contended that the strong policies of the past
15 years had successfully turned this situation around. Life
was better, Aliyev remarked, in Azerbaijan than in Iran today
and "their people are coming here" because "our women don't
wear headscarves and our men are free to drink and dance at
discotheques." Aliyev added that Westerners born into free
societies "could not understand how much being free" means
for Azerbaijanis. Today, Aliyev commented, Azerbaijan had
predictable relations with both neighbors, especially Russia,
and he underscored that these relations were formed on the
basis on equality and mutual interest not subservience.
Aliyev added that just as they (Russian and Iran) "could
create problems for us, we can create problems for them too,"
which contributed to the reliable nature of present-day
bilateral relations with Moscow and Tehran.

ALIYEV STRONGLY AGAINST AN ATTACK ON IRAN

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--------------


5. (C) Aliyev laughed when Hoekstra asked him to assess
Ahmadinejad's intentions, opining that "frankly, nobody
knows." He prefaced his comments on Iran saying that the US
war in Iraq had had a negative impact throughout the region
but waved off further criticism, noting that "what happened,
happened." Aliyev emphasized that a similar US-led attack on
Iran would "be a disaster for us" on two levels. First,
Aliyev said, Ahmadinejad told him that "Iran would attack
countries from where it was attacked." Second, Aliyev said
that he feared the flood of refugees that would cross the
border into Azerbaijan. In Aliyev's assessment, "if only ten
percent of the ethnic Azeri population" crossed the border,
"Azerbaijan will end." Azerbaijan, Aliyev stressed, lacked
the ability to absorb such a large refugee population, and
moreover, Iranians - even ethnic Azeris - would bring with
them Iran's Islamic culture which would irrevocably change
Azerbaijan for the worse.


6. (C) Aliyev emphasized that Azerbaijan is "strongly against
an attack on Iran." He noted that Iran has a strong army and
military infrastructure that produces its own weaponry.
Moreover, in Aliyev's view, an attack on Iran would only
strengthen hard-liners in the regime. Aliyev's counterparts
in the region have told him that an attack on Iran would
strengthen Iran's position in the Muslim world. Aliyev cited
the Saddam Hussein execution as an example, arguing that it
had turned Hussein into a hero throughout the Muslim world
despite common knowledge of the heinous crimes and human
rights violations for which he was responsible. Aliyev
further added that many (without specifying who) in Iran were
frightened of the prospect of a US invasion, evidenced, he
opined, by the increase in the number of Iranians moving
across the border, buying property in Baku. Aliyev said that
former Iranian Ambassador to Baku, Afshar Suleymani, asked
him for permission to return to Baku and work in the future
during his farewell call (reftel) and further that Suleymani
had left his wife and family behind in Baku.


7. (C) Aliyev remarked that he was not sure how the US
should proceed in handling Iran; if the US makes concessions
in the negotiation process, the IRI's position will be
stronger. However, alternatives, Aliyev opined, were not at
all clear. US policy toward Iran over the past two decades
has not, Aliyev argued, been able to isolate the country
because of Iran's continuing relations with the rest of the
world and because of its successful propaganda campaigns.
Aliyev commented that President Bush has already issued an
ultimatum to Iran that expired in August 2006 and "now we are
in April 2007" and "nothing has happened." Moreover, Aliyev
noted, Iran has oil and "nothing can stop oil."


8. (C) Russia, Aliyev added, was interested in taking
advantage of the US-Iran dispute. However, Aliyev added,
President Putin privately told him recently that Russia also
"does not want to appear that it is supporting them," a
comment Aliyev said he believed to be sincere. China, Aliyev
said, had its own policy of "very wisely" not interfering in
the US-Iran dispute. Aliyev stressed that the Muslim world
was uniformly unhappy with the US policy and the "US had no
allies now" in the Muslim world, "even among those who were
loyal."

IRANIAN LEADERSHIP DIVIDED AND UNPREDICTABLE
--------------


9. (C) Aliyev said that Ahmadinejad shared a great deal in
common with Iran's religious leadership but that "we have
information" about increasing "irritation" between the two
camps. Aliyev said that Ahmadinejad was neither simple nor
stupid and is not a straightforward person. Aliyev said that
Ahmadinejad "speaks constantly of war and military matters"
when the two meet; a stark contrast to Ahmadinejad's
predecessor, former President Khatami with whom Aliyev said
he used to discuss literature and poetry. Aliyev cautioned
that as a result of its internal political structure and
personalities at the top, both Ahmadinejad and the IRI were
unpredictable, proven recently by the detention and release
of the 15 British marines. Aliyev revealed that he has told
Ahmadinejad that his language on the international stage was
needlessly inflammatory, but that Ahmadinejad replied "You
should be happy, because of my words the price of oil goes
up." Aliyev stressed that Iran had no political process or
grassroots political movements.


10. (C) Aliyev said that while Islamic radicalism was not an
imminent threat to Azerbaijan "we do have some concerns".

BAKU 00000411 003 OF 005


Aliyev reported that GOAJ security services recently had
detained "terrorists" in Azerbaijan who were naturalized EU
citizens carrying British passports. However, more alarming,
Aliyev said, was the recent arrest of a group of homegrown
Islamic radicals who were found to have been well educated
and employed by prestigious companies. In this connection,
Aliyev commented, Wahabbism, imported from Dagestan, was more
dangerous to Azerbaijan than Iranian influence from the
south. In any event, Aliyev noted, it was not possible to
secure the "thousand kilometer" border between Iran and
Azerbaijan even with the most sophisticated technologies.

DEMOCRACY PROMOTION DOESN'T WORK IN THE MUSLIM WORLD
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Aliyev told Hoekstra that the Western media was all
too often prone to using the word "Islamists" to refer to
Islamic fundamentalists and that this sort of mistake,
however seemingly small, exacerbated Muslim negative
perceptions of Western attitudes toward Islam. Aliyev
counseled that the US should not try to reform the Muslim
world because it was simply too different a culture. Noting
that Azerbaijan was equally comfortable between the West and
the Muslim world, Aliyev commented that "pushing reform in
the Muslim world only leads to Hamas and Hezbollah."
Furthermore, it was wrong for the US to extrapolate from its
experience that it could impose democracy in Iraq or
elsewhere in the Middle East as a matter of policy. The
Muslim world, Aliyev contended, was a centuries old culture,
tradition and ideology that was not compatible with rapid
democratization: "Who can change the Saudis or the Afghans?"


12. (C) Aliyev remarked that a recent survey in Afghanistan
(note: source unknown) pointed to the fact that most Afghans
would support a restoration of the Taliban government because
it provided "law and order." Aliyev argued that the
historical and cultural heritage of the Muslim world tended
to restrict or retard political and economic development. He
added that "only Malaysia came to mind" when he tried to
think of a developed Muslim country. Aliyev said that very
mild, peripheral initiatives were the only possible steps
that could be taken with these societies - youth exchanges,
scientific conferences and sports events.


13. (C) Aliyev underscored that there was a great deal of
sensitivity within Muslim societies to the notion that
outsiders perceived Islam as a repressive religion. Sectarian
violence in Iraq had only exacerbated this sensitivity.
Conversely, Aliyev said he was proud of the fact that
Azerbaijani Muslims, Shiite or Sunni, worshipped together in
the same Mosques. He noted that he did not even know the
religious denomination of any members of his cabinet and did
not want to know. Azerbaijan, Aliyev said, was now building a
new Catholic Church which was further evidence that while
this was a Muslim majority country, it was not an Islamic
society.

FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE
--------------


14. (C) Turning north, Aliyev said that Armenia, Uzbekistan
and Kazakhstan were strongly under Russian influence,
embodied by their participation in Russia's Common Defense
Federation treaty. The Baltic states, by contrast, he said,
have NATO. Georgia and Ukraine, Aliyev remarked, were aligned
with the US and "until recently, we were on our own" but
"because of our partnership with the US that had now
changed." Aliyev said he was "very satisfied" with
Azerbaijan's relations with the US and the EU, highlighting
the recent EU Neighborhood Action Plan and new US-Azerbaijan
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Energy Cooperation
signed in Washington by the Secretary and Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov.


15. (C) Assessing Russia's regional influence, Aliyev said
that many countries - unlike Azerbaijan - lived in fear of
the Russian monopoly. Aliyev remarked that, during a recent
state visit to Azerbaijan, the Polish president told him that
Poland planned to organize a regional energy summit in May in
Warsaw. Although the Poles had invited President Nazarbayev,
he reportedly said that he would come only on the condition
that Putin received an invitation also. Aliyev noted that
Russia's influence over Kazakhstan was very strong, largely
because Kazakhstan has had only one route to transport its
energy resources westward - through Russia. However, Aliyev
remarked, Azerbaijani diplomacy will make it possible for the
Kazakhs to transit their energy resources through Azerbaijan
to the EU and, he argued, undercut Russian's energy transit

BAKU 00000411 004 OF 005


monopoly. Similarly, Aliyev bemoaned the fact that
Turkmenistan had contracted 100 percent of its gas reserves
to Gazprom, selling it to Russia at USD 100 per thousand
cubic meters which in turn the Russians were selling to
Europe at two-and-a-half times this price.


16. (C) Aliyev opined that, of all the countries in the
region, Azerbaijan has legitimate reason to feel vulnerable
to Russian influence because it was exposed to Russia through
Moscow's participation in the OSCE Minsk Group. Aliyev noted
that Azerbaijan was once also entirely dependent on Russian
transit routes through the Port of Novorossisk but that it
was necessary for countries to break the habit. This fear of
Russia must be overcome. Aliyev opined that Azerbaijan
nonetheless maintained normal relations with Russia although
Russian was clearly upset with the BTC and the SCP because
Russia would prefer to have the region's countries sell their
oil to Russia which it in turn would resell to the West at a
higher price. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan "should be more
courageous."

EU ENERGY POLICY: IT'S GREEK TO ME
--------------


17. (C) Aliyev affirmed that Azerbaijan would supply the EU
with gas by the end of 2007. However, because of technical
failures for which BP was responsible, the GOAJ would not be
able to supply the quantity of gas it had hoped for in 2007
to Greece. Nonetheless, Aliyev said he believed it was
symbolically important for Azerbaijan to deliver on its
promise to supply this gas to the EU in 2007 and in 2008 it
would increase the quantity as greater delivery became
technically feasible. Turkey, he noted, had already committed
to setting aside an agreed upon percentage of Azerbaijan gas
exports for Greece this year and Aliyev remarked this
set-aside would happen despite increased pressure from Russia
to prevent this. However, Aliyev cautioned that Azerbaijan
could only be as active as the Turkmens and Kazakhs want "us"
to be since it is their resources that would delivered.


18. (C) Aliyev lamented Greece and Bulgaria's recent
decisions to obtain energy supplies through a Russian
pipeline, commenting that Athens' energy policy was an odds
with the EU's energy policy and with its own best interests.
Aliyev similarly opined that Germany also seemed determined
to restrict its energy supplier base even further by
receiving its gas supplies from the Baltic states through a
Russian-controlled pipeline. Aliyev stressed that this gave
Russia a remarkable degree of leverage over the EU's most
powerful country as well as over the Baltic States and it
further underscored Azerbaijan's utility as an alternate
energy supplier along the East-West corridor. The time for
European action was now, said Aliyev, as other energy rich
countries like Egypt and Algeria were organizing themselves
into cartels. Aliyev wondered aloud why Azerbaijan "worked so
hard to create additional headaches for itself" through its
forward-leaning energy policies since Azerbaijan will soon
produce over a million barrels of oil per day, more than
enough, Aliyev noted, to meet its own needs. Aliyev
underscored that the EU energy goal and policies needed
greater clarity and soon.

AZERBAIJAN, A REGIONAL LEADER
--------------


19. (C) Underscoring Azerbaijan's growing regional leadership
role, Aliyev said he would shortly host the prime ministers
of Georgia, Kazakhstan (and GOAJ PM Rasizade) to discuss
further steps on regional energy cooperation. Such events,
Aliyev noted, were "not held here by chance" but rather
reflected the GOAJ leadership role in bringing the people and
countries of this region together. Aliyev characterized the
US, EU and GOAJ as united on energy development objectives
for the region, adding that with USG support, Azerbaijan will
soon become a gas supplier to the EU which will diversify the
EU's supplier base and begin to change the region's
geopolitics.


20. (C) Asked by Representative Hoekstra about his view of
Turkmenistan, Aliyev said that late Turkmen President Niyazov
was aggressive, citing Turkmenistan's decade long claim on
Azerbaijani oil fields in the south Caspian. However, Aliyev
said, the new Turkmen leadership was showing some positive
signs of cooperation and Foreign Minister Mammadyarov plans
to travel to Ashagabat on an official visit later this month.
(Mammadyarov subsequently told us the visit was postponed to
May, dates TBD, due to President Berdimukhamedov's planned
travel to Saudi Arabia, septel.)

BAKU 00000411 005 OF 005




21. (C) Aliyev also told Representative Hoekstra that
Azerbaijan was too often subject to unwarranted rhetorical
attacks from some American politicians such as Congressmen
Pallone and Knollenberg, whom Aliyev described as part of the
Armenian lobby. Congressman Hoekstra told Aliyev that there
are members who did not know Azerbaijan, not members who were
against Azerbaijan. Hoekstra added that he would talk to
Congressman Knollenberg upon return to Washington and
encourage him to visit Baku, which Aliyev welcomed.

A ROSY PICTURE AT HOME?
--------------


22. (C) On economic development, Aliyev highlighted
Azerbaijan's exceptional growth rate, the fastest in the
world. Aliyev also said that Azerbaijan was a leader of
British Prime Minister's Blair's Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative (EITI). Aliyev told Hoekstra that 81
percent of real estate in Azerbaijan was held by the private
sector. On the political front, Aliyev said he had pardoned
all the persons from the Council of Europe's 2004 political
prisoners list. Aliyev claimed that literacy was almost 100
percent and that he had launched initiatives to get computers
and Internet access into every classroom.


23. (C) In an often heard refrain, Aliyev said that the
current crop of opposition party leaders are the same people
who have been around since the early 1990s, who can see no
good in Azerbaijan's economic progress. However, Aliyev said
he believed these criticisms were not shared by wider society
although far too many people (20 percent) still lived below
the poverty line. Aliyev contended that in total, Azerbaijan
was no less developed than other societies in transition such
as Georgia and Ukraine. Aliyev commented that unlike Belgium
and the Netherlands, Azerbaijan was bordered by Russia and
Iran and that neither Belgium nor the Netherlands would have
developed into flourishing democracies quickly under those
circumstances. Aliyev said that more cooperation with the
West, especially through NATO was, in this regard, welcome
and makes Azerbaijan "feel protected." Aliyev said that he
was "proud and satisfied with what had been done" thus far in
Azerbaijan.

ALIYEV AFFIRMS ACTION ON THE NEC AND ADOPTION CASES
-------------- --------------


24. (C) Separately, the Ambassador underscored to Aliyev the
need to obtain conditional leases as soon as possible for New
Embassy Compound (NEC) sites since the previously offered NEC
location has been aborted. Aliyev said that he would instruct
Presidential aide Ali Asadov to come up with the detailed
conditional leases for the three properties under
consideration right away, with the understanding that the USG
would only take one site. The Ambassador also asked Aliyev
for his further assistance in resolving several outstanding
child adoption cases stymied by the GOAJ bureaucracy. Aliyev
agreed and instructed presidential foreign relations advisor
Novruz Mammadov to take action.


25. (U) Representative Hoekstra did not clear this message.
DERSE