PRESIDENT ALIYEV, DRL A/S LOWENKRON DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAKU 000037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM PBTS ENRG RU IR AJ
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV, DRL A/S LOWENKRON DISCUSS
BILATERAL RELATIONS, DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT


Classified By: CDA Jason P. Hyland, Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a December 18-19 visit to Azerbaijan,
Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and
Labor Barry Lowenkron secured President Aliyev's agreement to
launch an intensified bilateral dialogue on the development
of democracy in Azerbaijan in sessions to be held at regular
intervals. He also discussed bilateral relations with
Foreign Minister Mammadyarov. A/S Lowenkron encouraged human
rights activists to establish a national council to engage
the government and civil society and facilitated agreement
between the leadership of the main opposition parties and the
ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party to begin a dialogue to diffuse
tensions. A/S Lowenkron also highlighted Azerbaijan's record
of religious freedom and tolerance in meetings with religious
leaders and heard Azerbaijani religious analysts' concerns
about the development of political Islam. To underscore
continuing concerns with media freedom in Azerbaijan, A/S
Lowenkron met with editors and leading independent
broadcaster ANS and appeared on the ANS program Point of
View. In a visit and remarks carried by major media, the A/S
visited the grave of murdered journalist Elmar Huseynov. This
cable reports A/S Lowenkron's wide-ranging introductory
discussion with President Aliyev on the bilateral
relationship, Azerbaijan's democratic development, including
the political process, corruption and human rights, relations
with Russia and Iran and energy. Septels report A/S
Lowenkron's dinner with President Aliyev and other meetings.
END SUMMARY.

Bilateral Relationship
--------------


2. (C) In an hour and half long introductory meeting on
December 18 that included Foreign Minister Mammadyarov and
the Ambassador (followed by a dinner, reported septel),
President Aliyev told A/S Lowenkron that he is "very
satisfied" with the level of bilateral relations to date and
hopes relations will develop further in all areas.
Recognizing A/S Lowenkron's responsibility for democracy and
human rights, he underscored that "all elements of the
relationship are linked, cannot be separated and all are
equally important." He said he is seeking to develop the
relationship "as a package." The US-Azerbaijan bilateral
agenda parallels and strengthens Azerbaijan's agenda for
political and economic development. A strong economic base
is needed for political development; the GOAJ is seeking to
address poverty and spur diversified regional development
with the aim of creating a middle class that will support
political transformation. "Poor countries with social
problems have problems with democratic development," Aliyev
said, pointing to his record of creating a half a million
jobs in the last three years. Azerbaijan's goal of
Euro-Atlantic integration and its "commitment to
democratization" are "our choice"; Azerbaijan sees its future
in its partnership with the EU and the West. Aliyev added
that since his April 2006 visit to Washington, important
developments with both the EU and NATO reflect this policy
direction.


3. (C) Azerbaijan sees itself as a strong partner of the US
and the anti-terror coalition, Aliyev said, noting that
"really dangerous people" have been captured in Azerbaijan,
contributing to US and EU security. The fact that
Azerbaijani soldiers are serving in Iraq creates problems for
Azerbaijan with Muslim countries. "We are doing it only to
stay close to the US - that's the reality," Aliyev said.


4. (C) A/S Lowenkron appreciated Aliyev's recognition that
the political/security, energy/economic and democracy
elements of our relationship are inter-related, and said the
US attaches importance to Aliyev's statement in Washington
about his commitment to build a democratic future for
Azerbaijan. The US appreciates Azerbaijan's cooperation in
the global war on terror and with peacekeepers. Azerbaijan
is a model of a secular Muslim state that can exercise
leadership in the region and beyond. There is potential for
growth in the bilateral relationship, and in particular, for
following up on the promotion of democracy. He noted
Secretary Rice's interest not in typecasting countries as

SIPDIS
"good" or "bad" with respect to democratic development but
rather, in assessing whether a country's trajectory on
democracy is positive with respect to the electoral process,
governance, and the engagement of civil society. Noting that
there is no exact formula and rarely a smooth path for

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democratic development, Lowenkron said this trip was the
beginning of an ongoing dialogue and asked Aliyev how we can
work together on Azerbaijan's democratic development going
forward.


5. (C) Stating that "US-Azerbaijan relations for me are very
important," Aliyev said that it is key "to be in touch all
the time, exchanging visits and delegations." Long periods
without active contacts are unhelpful; it is important to
understand each others' point of view. "Partners need to be
open and work closely on all the elements" of the
relationship, and "judge the situation not only based on
Freedom House or Transparency International's" assessments,
which are not always "100 percent correct." Aliyev noted
that he had met in Washington with the NGOs that are most
critical of Azerbaijan because it is "very important to talk;
one-sided information leads to alienation." (NOTE: Over
dinner later that day, Aliyev agreed to establish an ongoing
dialogue on democracy. See septel.)

Russia and Iran
--------------


6. (C) Azerbaijan has a unique chance of becoming a
prosperous nation, Aliyev said, but security is becoming
more of a concern. The trend towards inter-religious
confrontation globally is a major concern. Azerbaijan is a
multi-ethnic and multi-religious society, its majority Muslim
population comprising 70 percent Shia and 30 percent Sunni,
but most Azerbaijanis do not make the distinction. The
division developing in Iraq could become an issue for
Azerbaijan "five years" in the future, however. Aliyev
emphasized Azerbaijan's "difficult neighborhood" from the
point of view of history and the democratic process. No
neighbor of Azerbaijan is one hundred percent democratic,
"even Georgia," and the situation in Iran and Russia is
changing rapidly. The speed of Azerbaijan's reforms must be
assessed from this perspective, Aliyev stated. Russia today
is "big and ambitious," and not the same Russia of five years
ago. Russia is using gas and pressure on Azerbaijani and
other migrants to promote its interests in the region. Iran,
similarly, is "indifferent" to international pressure, and
Azerbaijan is still in conflict with Armenia. Azerbaijan
"is committed to democratization - if not, we would not have
signed up with the EU or NATO or the Council of Europe." But
these factors are "realities we live with daily;" they impact
Azerbaijan's development and need to be taken into account,
Aliyev said.


7. (C) Aliyev said he is very concerned that in his recent
meetings with Russian president Putin he got a feeling that
Putin believes it is possible for Russia to do anything with
impunity and without deterrence or practical respect for
human rights or the democratic process. Russia is very
comfortable and is "taking advantage" of the situation. It
is the same in Iran, he said. Ahmadinejad differs from his
predecessor, who was a cultured person and an "intelligent
interlocutor" with whom Aliyev could discuss education,
health care, and poetry. With Ahmadinejad, we discuss only
"missiles and rockets." Ahmadinejad's comments make clear
there is "no deterrence" effectively being exercised on Iran.
Ahmadinejad is a "closed, not an open, man - you never know
what he thinks," Aliyev said. Although he is very "social"
in public communications, his "strong and aggressive
statements make clear he doesn't care about Iran's
international reputation or public opinion at all. He is
dangerous - he can do anything he wants," Aliyev said, unlike
Putin, who is restrained to some degree by his participation
in the G-8.


8. (C) Aliyev said that ten years ago he would have advised
the US to "penetrate, not isolate" Iran, especially through
energy projects. But now, "I think it is too late,"
especially after developments with Hamas in Palestine and
Lebanon, and the failure of the international community to
follow up on the August deadline with respect to Iran's
nuclear program. This failure to act only strengthens
Ahmadinejad, Aliyev said. Developments in Syria and Lebanon
over the past 6-8 months also work to Iran's advantage. In
short, Aliyev concluded, "any additional concession or good
will will only lead to more aggression. This is very
dangerous," especially since the religious and civilian
leadership in Iran today is "united," and the country is
"militarized."


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9. (C) Aliyev told Lowenkron that Azerbaijan had succeeded in
"indefinitely postponing a proposal from the Russian and
Turkmen leaders last fall that Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran and
Azerbaijan attend a Summit in Iran on Caspian delimitation,
in the belief that there is nothing new on the table and a
summit would only create new tensions. Failure to resolve
the delimitation issue is less important once the pipelines
are built, Aliyev said, and is preferable to "resolving the
issue badly" in any case.

Political Development
--------------


10. (C) Democracy is "not only elections," Aliyev said, and
democratic development should not be judged on this element
alone. Azerbaijan's last two elections "100 percent"
reflected the popular will, despite shortcomings, on which
the GOAJ is working. "Without a strong political system,
strong public control and accountability and a free society,"
Azerbaijan's economic success will be short-lived, Aliyev
said. Azerbaijan's goal is to create a strong economy, with
rule of law, in which people are free and happy. The goal
may be "utopic, but it is largely achievable," Aliyev
maintained, "with strong political will and strong public
support."


11. (C) A/S Lowenkron asked about Aliyev's recent call for
dialogue with the opposition. Aliyev said he had called for
dialogue previously, before and after the Presidential
elections, with the aim of stimulating political engagement
and development. The opposition took the calls as a sign of
weakness and rejected them. Now in Azerbaijan there is
"almost no political life, no political process," Aliyev
maintained. Azerbaijan is the only former Soviet republic in
which opposition leaders from the early nineties remain
active. Since they are weak, this is an advantage for him as
a politician, Aliyev said, but it is negative from the
perspective of the political development of the country. The
opposition lost the elections of 1993, 1995, and 1998 -
"really lost them, despite the shortcomings" in the process,
Aliyev maintained. The current opposition leaders should
give way to a younger and more educated generation. "There
will be no political development until the leaders change,"
Aliyev said, adding that it is important to "turn the page of
hatred and hostility." The first signs of the opposition's
response to Aliyev's call for dialogue were not positive,
with some opposition leaders saying they would engage and
others not, but Aliyev pledged to "make another attempt."


12. (C) Aliyev argued that the people of Azerbaijan when
voting have not forgotten the country's turbulent early
history, when there was a succession of short-lived
governments and "the country almost fell apart." The Popular
Front government "tortured and arrested people and committed
crimes in 1992-1993." People do not forget and vote for
"safety, a normally predictable life." They recognize that
today Azerbaijan enjoys a rapidly developing economy, a good
regional position and strength through energy projects which
will secure Azerbaijan's independence and a "feeling of
national dignity.'


13. (C) Aliyev said that some in the opposition who call
themselves democrats "publish unpleasant articles attacking
the US and President Bush... when they call themselves
pro-Western, they are not, they cannot be - their education
and communications" show something different," he maintained.
"We really are trying to create a better political
environment. My recent appeal (for dialogue) was based on
some positive developments - some leaders of parties
previously antagonistic started to meet with our people; they
were branded as traitors by the oldguard, who are sitting on
their chairs and keepig the hostile environment." The
political proces, however, is a "two-way street," Aliyev
said. he government is responsible for the economic
deelopment of the country, but both the government ad the
opposition must work on political development. Aliyev said
with the current opposition "we don't have a serious force
that can offer something different on economic development,
foreign policy, not compromising Azerbaijan's territorial
integrity in an NK resolution or on security issues. There
is nothing in principle the opposition would do differently,"
instead it relies on simplistic characterizations of the
opposition as "good," and the government as "bad."

Human Rights

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--------------


14. (C) A/S Lowenkron pointed to negative developments in the
media, including the suspension of independent ANS TV and
Radio, and on freedom of assembly and the judiciary's lack of
independence, and asked Aliyev what plans he has to address
these issues. Aliyev said there is "no problem" with freedom
of assembly. Those wishing to hold rallies had been offered
places which are "not far away." These locales have been
publicly declared by the Mayor's office, Aliyev continued,
and those wishing to assemble there are "absolutely free" to
do so. They do not always have to meet "in front of my
office or in the main square," Aliyev said. But they have
refused. Referring to the November 2005 opposition rally
that had been broken up violently by police, Aliyev said that
"after the attempt at another Orange revolution, when the law
was violated," a rally had indeed been dispersed, but "even
in France when there is violence, or at G-8 meeting when
anti-globalization forces attacked," rallies have been
dispersed. There are problems with the judiciary because the
"judges are all Soviet." The GOAJ, working with the Council
of Europe, is trying to implement reforms. Judges' terms
have been extended to ten years with the aim of giving them
"freedom to judge," and fifty two judges selected by
competitive examination would be appointed.


15. (C) On ANS, Aliyev said there is "no problem with the
media." ANS was "never opposition media, but supportive to
me." The National Television and Radio Council (NTRC) had
warned ANS eight to ten times about regulatory violations,
but ANS ignored the warnings, "thinking they were untouchable
because they are media." This is not the case, Aliyev said.
"Media, business, politics," there must be "equal rule of law
to all." Once ANS realized the NTRC was serious, they
resolved the issues and are back on the air with all their
previous programming. There are 500 newspapers publishing in
Azerbaijan, and only two or three are state-owned, Aliyev
maintained.

Corruption
--------------


16. (C) A/S Lowenkron emphasized the need to tackle
corruption to support political and economic development.
Aliyev replied that revenues go into the State Oil Fund
transparently and are published: transparency and
accountability in the Oil Fund is not an issue. The
Parliament reviews budget expenditures, but more control is
needed to ensure these assets are used responsibly, Aliyev
acknowledged. Azerbaijan studied the Alaskan, Kuwaiti,
Norwegian and other models to ensure its energy wealth is
protected and not misused. Corruption exists in all the
former Soviet republics. "Russia is the leader and Ukraine
is number two; Transparency International's low ranking of
Azerbaijan is not 100 percent correct; our neighbors are not
less corrupt," Aliyev said. 75 percent of GDP is in private
hands and the GOAJ seeks to limit government interference in
the economy. EU integration will help, he added.

Energy
--------------


17. (C) Energy today is "issue number one" in Azerbaijan's
bilateral and multilateral relations, Aliyev said. "Only
through Azerbaijan" can Europe achieve diversification of
energy supply. Azerbaijan is working actively with
Kazakhstan to bring the Europeans on board this effort;
Minister of Economic Development Heydar Babayev recently
visited Kazakhstan to discuss with the government how to
bring Kazakh gas west. The US and Azerbaijan need to jointly
work with the Kazakh government to win it support for this
project, Aliyev stressed. The Georgian economy also depends
on Azerbaijan's gas. Aliyev said that Russia was well aware
of and actively seeking to oppose Azerbaijan's growing
strategic role in Caspian gas supply to Europe. Russian Prime
Minister Mikhail Fradkhov recently offered to buy Azerbaijani
gas in lieu of Azerbaijan selling it to Europe, but "I
refused," Aliyev said. Russia "openly, almost, asked us to
join the anti-Georgia group," but Azerbaijan refused firmly,
Aliyev added.

Comment
--------------


18. (C) A/S Lowenkron's wide-ranging discussion with

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President Aliyev indicates that the latter is fully aware of
the challenges facing Azerbaijan. Implementation of his
plans to address these challenges of course will remain key.
In this regard, President Alliyev reiterated that he views
all elements of the bilateral relationship as linked, and as
such, A/S Lowenkron securing his agreement to launch an
intensified bilateral dialogue at regular intervals on the
development of democracy in Azerbaijan is a significant
achievement in our bilateral relationship.


19. (U) A/S Lowenkron cleared this message.
HYLAND