Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BAKU136
2007-01-30 06:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN,S APPROACH TO THE "NEW" GUAM

Tags:  PGOV PREL PBTS KDEM AJ GG MD UP 
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PP RUEHDBU
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FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2306
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1971
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0566
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0213
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 0539
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000136 

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DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS KDEM AJ GG MD UP
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN,S APPROACH TO THE "NEW" GUAM

REF: 06 USUN 01817

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000136

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS KDEM AJ GG MD UP
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN,S APPROACH TO THE "NEW" GUAM

REF: 06 USUN 01817

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the past year, Azerbaijan's primary
interest in GUAM appears to have been regional security,
especially resolving the region,s "protracted" or "frozen"
conflicts. As Azerbaijan prepares to assume the Chair of
GUAM in June, Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said GUAM
should focus on creating an "east-west corridor" and focus on
"action-oriented" activities. Azerbaijan's ability to lead
GUAM after it assumes the chairmanship at the June heads of
state summit will be the best indicator of the GOAJ's
approach to and priorities for the organization. Azimov has
requested senior level USG representation at the summit and
assistance in convincing Kazakhstan and Turkey to send
official representatives. GOAJ support for a proposed GUAM
peacekeeping unit remains unclear; Azerbaijan lobbied for the
creation on a new GUAM working group on military and
political cooperation, which Azimov described as "very
sensitive." Azimov acknowledged that differences among and
within the GUAM member states have limited the
organization,s effectiveness. The GOAJ itself likely is to
blame for some of these problems; the GOAJ still needs to
approve the GUAM charter and exercise leadership in the two
working groups -- transportation and emergency situations --
that it will chair from 2007-2008. The chief constraint on
Azerbaijan's GUAM participation is its desire to maintain
good relations with Russia. END SUMMARY.

Context: The Kyiv Summit
--------------


2. (U) At the May 2006 Kyiv Summit, GUAM heads of state took
symbolic strides to jumpstart the organization, including a
new name: the "Organization for Democracy and Economic
Development--GUAM;" a new charter; and the creation of a
secretariat in Kyiv. The Kyiv declaration emphasized four

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areas of cooperation: European integration; regional
security, with a special emphasis on the principles of

"sovereignty" and "territorial integrity" (i.e. a favorable
resolution of the protracted conflicts); economic
cooperation; and "dedication to democratic values, adherence
for the rule of law, and respect for human rights." In the
eight months following the summit, Azerbaijan's primary
interest in GUAM appears to have been regional security,
especially resolving the region,s "protracted" or "frozen"
conflicts.

Deputy Foreign Minister Lays out Vision for GUAM
-------------- ---


3. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov, who is the
GOAJ's national coordinator for GUAM, told then-Charge
d'Affaires on January 10 that GUAM should focus on creating
an east-west "corridor." GUAM's activities in all fields
should be better coordinated toward the goal of creating an
"action-oriented" east-west corridor, according to Azimov.
In this respect, Azimov argued that it would be helpful to
have Kazakhstan join GUAM. On the issue of GUAM's attempt to
put the protracted conflicts on the UNGA agenda, Azimov said
that "we seek a short resolution" that attempts to be
"constructive." Azimov noted that a future UN resolution
would focus on a "roadmap" for resolving the protracted
conflicts within the principle of "territorial integrity,"
while not discarding the need for "self-rule." Azimov
remarked that a draft is being discussed by GUAM member
states' missions to the UN.


4. (C) Azimov told the Charge that Azerbaijan will assume
the GUAM chairmanship in June, during a heads of state summit
in Baku. GUAM probably will invite several non-GUAM members
to participate, specifically Bulgaria, Estonia, Kazakhstan,
Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Turkey, according to Azimov.
Azimov and other MFA officials have requested that a
senior-level USG official attend the summit to raise the
organization's profile. He also asked for USG assistance in
convincing Kazakhstan and Turkey to attend the summit.
Azimov reported that Azerbaijan will chair two GUAM working
groups -- transportation and emergency situations -- from
2007-2008, and he observed that the transportation working
group was "very important" for Azerbaijan.


BAKU 00000136 002 OF 003



5. (C) Azimov acknowledged that GUAM faces challenges.
Azimov observed that there is a tendency within the GOAJ and
other member states' for specific government agencies to view
GUAM only through an agency-specific perspective. Azimov
said that governments and specific agencies need to focus on
the broader strategic concept of GUAM's role as an east-west
corridor. Accordingly, Azimov said he has encouraged
relevant GOAJ deputy ministers to avoid letting the
organization become a talk-shop and to be more active in
designing projects that will contribute to GUAM's vitality.
Azimov noted that he hopes to give a speech at the June 2007
summit focusing on the need for GUAM's activities to be
"action-oriented" and for the organization to focus on its
role as an east-west corridor. Commenting on other member
states, Azimov said Moldova has been the least active in
chairing its respective working groups; he also said that
internal disagreement within the Ukrainian government about
the direction of Ukraine's foreign policy is GUAM's key
"political problem."

Other MFA Perspectives
--------------


6. (SBU) In conversations about GUAM, other MFA officials
regularly emphasize the GOAJ's interest in resolving the
protracted conflicts and highlighting Baku's pro-Western
foreign policy orientation. MFA GUAM desk officer Mahur
Gasimov told us that the GOAJ's top GUAM priorities are
gaining support for the GOAJ's position on the Nagorno
Karabakh (NK) conflict and enhancing economic cooperation
among members. Separately, MFA Americas desk officer Elchin
Bashirov said GUAM is primarily important for emphasizing
Azerbaijan's western-leaning orientation. Another common
theme we hear from MFA officers is that US support for GUAM
is central to the organization's existence. For example,
Qalib Israfilov (Director of the MFA's International Security
Department, which is responsible for formulating the
Ministry's GUAM policy) repeatedly has told us that the GOAJ
wants to work closely with the USG on GUAM-related issues.

The Road Ahead
--------------


7. (C) Based on Azimov,s comments, it seems the GOAJ is
interested in building GUAM as an institution and could use
Baku's upcoming chairmanship to push the organization to
refocus on a more strategic vision of creating an east-west
corridor and pursuing results-oriented activities. Yet the
GOAJ record to-date, including a lack of cohesion among the
GOAJ agencies charged with implementing the GUAM agenda,
indicates that Azimov will face challenges in implementing
his vision.


8. (C) Institutionally, GUAM,s next step is create an
effective GUAM Secretariat and active working groups.
However, incoming GUAM Chair Azerbaijan has not yet approved
the new GUAM charter. According to the MFA, the Parliament
approved the GUAM charter in December 2006, but President
Aliyev still needs to approve the document. The GOAJ's
leadership in chairing the transportation and emergency
situations working groups will provide the GOAJ with an
opportunity to exercise leadership within GUAM. Previously,
the GOAJ chaired the working group on combatting terrorism,
organized crime and drug trafficking from 2003-2006. A USG
funded advisor to GUAM told us in December that the
Azerbaijani Deputy Interior Minister had done a poor job of
chairing this working group, which has been turned over to
Moldova for 2007-2008.


9. (C) Azerbaijan,s position on a proposed GUAM
peacekeeping unit remains unclear. MFA Officer Gasimov told
us the GOAJ was instrumental in lobbying for the creation of
a new GUAM working group on military and political
cooperation, which could be the institutional forum for
creating a GUAM peacekeeping unit. Deputy Foreign Minister
Azimov characterized the working group's activities as "very
sensitive."


10. (C) (Comment: The Virtual Law Enforcement Center (VLEC)
-- a secure computer system that enables GUAM members to
share information on threats posed by terrorists, organized
crime, and drug trafficking -- could emerge as a forum to
enhance cooperation among GUAM member countries. This likely

BAKU 00000136 003 OF 003


will not occur without persistent USG engagement, however.
Alexander Fracas, a USG-paid consultant from the Southeast
European Cooperative Initiative (SECI) to GUAM and a Romanian
diplomat, told us in November 2006 that he has seen some
incremental progress at the mid and working-levels among GUAM
members, and that the center can play a helpful role in law
enforcement efforts. He claimed, however, that it has been a
long effort in trying to get the GUAM members to use the
VLEC. Fracas also acknowledged that relative to SECI, GUAM
members have less incentive to bring their laws into closer
conformity with EU standards. Law Enforcement Advisor, who
is the primary point of contact with the Azerbaijani VLEC,
said it has been difficult to get GUAM members to understand
the value of the system. She observed, however, that the
center probably needs more time to be running before an
evaluation can be made of its activities.)

Ties with Russia Constrain Baku's GUAM Involvement
-------------- --------------


11. (C) Azerbaijan's complex relationship with Russia
appears to be the chief constraint on the GOAJ's
participation in GUAM. GOAJ officials, until recently, went
out of their way to avoid giving the impression that GUAM is
anti-Russian, indicating Baku's sensitivities to introducing
irritants in relations with Moscow. Yegana Balayeva from the
Embassy of Azerbaijan in Washington told other GUAM members
on October 23 -- during a working-level meeting of GUAM
members and Department officers -- that the GOAJ was wary of
GUAM's reputation as an anti-Russian block. She noted the
GUAM UNGA resolution on the protracted conflicts was not
aimed at any country.


12. (C) Reflecting the GOAJ's concern with maintaining a
"balanced" foreign policy, MFA officer Bashirov told us that
GUAM includes "some radical elements" -- specifically, he
said, Georgia and Moldova. Bashirov said that while Georgia
and Azerbaijan share many common interests, Georgia's
"provocative approach" toward Russia is not in Baku's
interests. Bashirov noted that the tone and substance of
President Aliyev's May statement from the Kyiv summit
reflects the strong GOAJ interest in avoiding the perception
that GUAM is an anti-Russian organization. (Note: According
to press, Aliyev's statement noted, "It (GUAM) is not aimed
against anybody...We didn't gather here to make friends in
order to oppose someone else.")

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Azimov's argument that GUAM should focus on
"action-oriented" activities that bolster GUAM's ability toserve as an east-west bridge is a welcome strategic vision.
However, it is unclear to what extent this vision is shared
by other GUAM members and by the other GOAJ ministries
responsible for implementing GUAM activities.
DERSE