NGO AND POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS SHARE CONCERNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAKU 001355

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: NGO AND POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS SHARE CONCERNS
WITH EUR A/S FRIED

REF: BAKU 1306

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During his November 4 meetings with NGO and
political party leaders, EUR A/S Fried noted the importance
of a strong Azerbaijan with strong democratic institutions.
Although it is not always popular with the GOAJ, he said that
Azerbaijan's democratic development would remain a priority
for the U.S. Leaders of Azerbaijan's key NGOs outlined many
concerns, including
problems with freedom of expression, freedom of assembly,
religious freedom, and torture of detainees. They also
expressed frustration that the GOAJ has not implemented many
of the Council of Europe's recommendations. The opposition
political party leaders shared similar concerns, noting
democratic backsliding since the 2005 parliamentary
elections. One pro-government party member said that
democratic development could not be discussed until the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved. Ruling party
Executive Secretary Ali Ahmadov said the GOAJ's main concern
was keeping people happy. A/S Fried noted that the GOAJ can
use its oil revenue to achieve higher-scale corruption with
weak institutions or a democratic state with strong
institutions; the chosen direction remains to be seen. END
SUMMARY

CIVIL SOCIETY'S CONCERNS
--------------


2. (C) On November 4, the Ambassador hosted a tea for
visiting EUR A/S Fried with leaders from Azerbaijan's key
NGOs. Guests included Association for the Protection of
Women's Rights Chair Novella Jafaroglu; Bureau for the
Respect of Human Rights and Law Chair Saida Gojamanly; ISHR
Azerbaijan branch Chair Saadat Benanyarly; Murad Sadaddinov
and Rena Sadaddinova, respective chair and deputy chair of
the Azerbaijan Foundation of Democratic Development and Human
Rights Protection; Helsinki Citizens Assembly
Azerbaijan branch Chair Arzu Abdullayeva; Institute for Peace
and Democracy Chair Leyla Yunus; Azerbaijan Committee against
Torture Chair Elchin Behbudov; Institute for Reporter Freedom
and Safety Chair Emin Huseynov; and Human Rights Center of
Azerbaijan Chair Eldar Zeynalov. A/S Fried opened by telling
the group that he had discussed Azerbaijan's democratic
development with President Aliyev, specifically the 2008
presidential election and the case of jailed journalist
Eynulla Fatullayev. He said that without democratic
development, U.S.-Azerbaijani relations would not be as
strong or lasting as they should be; without reform,
Azerbaijan will not succeed.


3. (C) Arzu Abdullayeva shared her concern over deteriorating
freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and now religious
freedom, noting her perception of increased tension between
religious groups. For example, she said that for the first
time, Christian groups are being targeted. Abdullayeva
believes that the decline in religious freedom is part of a
political plan connected to State Committee for Work with
Religious Associations Chair Hidayat Orujov. According to
Abdullayeva, while the political opposition has become
weaker, civil society remains strong. Abdullayeva explained
that she is forming a new Democracy Council, to be comprised
of intellectuals and civil society representatives, which
will be announced on December 10, International Human Rights
Day. Emin Huseynov said that civil society needs to move
beyond simply defending itself and begin taking pro-active
measures against the government. He believes that the GOAJ
first targeted the media, and is now moving on to civil
society.


4. (C) Elchin Behbudov rised concerns over Eynulla
Fatullayev, the alreay-imprisoned journalist who received an
eight-year-six-month imprisonment sentence on October 30 on
charges of supporting terrorism, inciting ethnic hatred, and
tax evasion (reftel). Behbudov noted that the length of
Fatullayev's sentence is comparable to murder charges. He
said that Azerbaijan is not fulfilling its commitments with
the Council of Europe (COE); rather, the GOAJ is responsible
for numerous human rights abuses, including torture of
detainees, at times resulting in death. According to
Behbudov, "there is a curtain through which one must look to
see Azerbaijan for what it is: a rotten apple." Saida
Gojamanly echoed Behbudov's comment about the GOAJ's
implementation of its COE commitments, noting the GOAJ's
failure to implement the Parliamentary Assembly of the COE's
recommendations on Azerbaijan as outlined in an April
resolution, including changes to the electoral code and
finding a solution to the political prisoner problem.


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5. (C) Novella Jafaroglu outlined a list of problems, saying
that there is no political opposition in Azerbaijan, people
are "running towards Islam," and prices are increasing
parallel to corruption. According to Jafaroglu, former
President Heydar Aliyev "gave ministers the chance to earn up
to a million dollars, but then they had to stop." Now, she
said, they have free reign; although President Ilham Aliyev
had the opportunity to implement reforms, he was "surrounded
by gangsters" and has become one of them. Gojamanly added
that Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev advises the
President "not to listen to the international community."
Eldar Zeynalov said that because of their immense wealth,
each minister had the power to stabilize the country, but
they choose to perpetuate the corrupt situation to make
money. Referring to President Aliyev, he said "I don't think
he is so naive; he knows everything that happens in this
country." Zeynalov agreed with Jafaroglu that some ministers
"didn't get their cut during Heydar's rule, but they're
getting it now." According to Zeynalov "it would be easier
to obtain Azerbaijan's military secrets than to find out who
owns what." He concluded that many of Azerbaijan's
shortcomings could be resolved by the creation of a real free
market economy.


6. (C) Murad Sadaddinov turned to the deteriorating media
situation, saying that he does not believe the GOAJ will
pardon the seven imprisoned journalists - whom he views as
"hostages in a political game" - in the near future. He
noted the need for the U.S. and the international community
to come down hard on the GOAJ: "You expressed
dissatisfaction with the situation, but the government
doesn't think concrete actions will follow." Sadaddinov
expressed concern that the GOAJ is now using every means
possible to control civil society. He did not agree with his
colleagues' assessment that the opposition is weak, noting
that the Azerbaijani opposition remains more active than in
other countries despite the difficult operating environment.
Sadaddinov believes that the Azerbaijani population is
generally opposed to the current government. Saadat
Benanyarly touched upon property rights, referring to the
increasing trend of people losing their homes when the
Ministry of Emergency Situations declares buildings to be
unstable. She also noted a need for civil society and the
opposition to receive television airtime.


7. (C) Leyla Yunus claimed that the international community
has given President Aliyev a "carte blanche" to do what he
wants. She said that the GOAJ is using political Islam as an
excuse to crack down on religious groups, noting particular
concern over a group of 15 persons believed to be Iranian
spies, whom the GOAJ prevented human rights monitors from
visiting during eight months of their detention. Yunus
cautioned that an anti-American attitude is gaining steam in
Azerbaijan, mirrored by the pro-Western opposition vanishing.
She questioned President Aliyev's true popularity, asking
"If he's so sure he will be elected, why not allow freedom of
speech and freedom of assembly? Why not allow the opposition
access to the electronic media?" Yunus said that a situation
has arisen in which, should there be a incident of terrorism,
"public opinion would be on the side of the terrorist, not
the victim, because no one supported democratic reforms."
She said she was afraid the GOAJ has left no room for
peaceful change. According to Yunus, President Aliyev
believes the international community is more interested in
Azerbaijan's geo-political situation and oil than its
democratization; she said that if the U.S. coordinates with
the EU, the OSCE, and the COE to show Aliyev otherwise,
"changes will follow."


8. (C) A/S Fried said that the GOAJ can use its oil revenue
to go in one of two directions: higher-scale corruption with
weak institutions and "rent-seeking behavior," or
strengthened institutions, including democratic reform, a
free-market economy, and greater political space. He noted
that in some other countries, oil money has been able to
support a government for a certain period of time, but
eventually social and economic stresses weaken it. The
question remains, said A/S Fried, will Azerbaijan use the oil
revenue to support reform or repression? The U.S. wants a
strong Azerbaijan, he continued, but a strong Azerbaijan has
to have a strong population and strong institutions, not just
a strong group of elites making all the decisions and keeping
all the money. A/S Fried said that civil society must keep
doing what it is doing, in spite of the difficult operating
environment. He said that he would encourage the opposition
to reach out to society and strengthen its position to find a
way to be effective. To the GOAJ, he said, he would say that
a free election makes them stronger, and a weak election
makes them weaker. A/S Fried noted the U.S.' difficult
position: maintaining hostile relations with the GOAJ would

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accomplish nothing, and ignoring the democratic shortcomings
would not work. That left the U.S. somewhere in the middle,
he said, "We want to work with the GOAJ, but at the same time
push it to act in its long-term interests," which he said
would always make the GOAJ a little unhappy. The Assistant
Secretary closed, saying "We want Azerbaijan to develop a

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little like Turkey, and a little like Eastern Europe, not
like Uzbekistan or Russia, where oil money is fueling
corruption and aggression."

LUNCH WITH POLITICAL PARTY HEADS
--------------


9. (U) Separately on November 4, the Ambassador hosted a
lunch for A/S Fried with political party leaders. Guests
included Yeni Azerbaijan Party Executive Secretary Ali
Ahmadov; Musavat Party Chair Isa Gambar; Popular Front Party
Chair Ali Kerimli; Azerbaijan Liberal Party Leader Lala
Shovket; Yeni Siyaset Bloc President Eldar Namazov; Justice
Party Chair Ilyas Ismayilov; Hope Party Chair Igbal Agazade;
and Civil Solidarity Party Chair Sabir Rustemkhanli. A/S
Fried opened by stating that the U.S. cares very much about
Azerbaijan, and wants to see it as a strong, sovereign
country, with strong institutions such as independent courts,
and a free media. A strong president, he continued, is one
who has a democratic mandate, whose legitimacy cannot be
questioned. A/S Fried said that Azerbaijan is becoming very
rich, very fast, and the oil revenue can either propel reform
or promote corruption. He said that in a undemocratic
system, leaders have to depend on outside support, internal
security forces, or both. While Russia is afraid that the
U.S. is trying to stir up "color revolutions" in the region,
A/S Fried continued, in truth we want to see strength through
democratic evolution. "We are bothered by the number of
journalists in prison" he said. "Former President Heydar
Aliyev established a truly independent state, and I hope that
President Ilham Aliyev uses his power to establish a strong,
modern state with strong institutions." A/S Fried said that
a weak Azerbaijan would be a strategic disaster; it would be
vulnerable to radicalism, and forced to rely on outside
support, which Iran and Russia would be happy to provide.


10. (C) Ali Ahmadov said that the ruling party also wants to
see Azerbaijan as a strong state, which does not necessarily
mean only a strong leadership. To him, it includes strong
institutions, a stronger opposition, and a society in which
people live well. Ahmadov said that the GOAJ is not naive,
that it realizes it can only stay strong if people are living
well. He said that he would like to see Azerbaijan's
economic potential be used for its people, who can use the
wealth to secure a democratic future. "I'm not claiming
there are no problems here, but we're doing as much as
possible to resolve them," Ahmadov stated. He said that the
GOAJ wants Azerbaijan to be strong on its own, not being
dictated by another country. For example, Ahmadov said that
Azerbaijan's decision to supply Georgia with gas after Russia
raised gas prices demonstrated that Azerbaijan "won't play by
others' rules." Ahmadov questioned how anyone can discuss
human rights in Azerbaijan without considering the situation
of one million IDPs/refugees. While the ruling party also is
concerned by the number of journalists behind bars, Ahmadov
said "we have to find a compromise," because many journalists
have offended and slandered others. "We just want to prosper
and make friends" he concluded.


11. (C) Lala Shovket said that unfortunately, the same
problems she conveyed to A/S Fried during his October 2005
visit to Baku remained problems today, but had become worse.
She said that Azerbaijan is moving step-by-step towards an
authoritarian regime, not a democracy. Shovket noted
particular concern with the freedom of expression situation,
including the continuing pressure on independent journalists
and the seven journalists who remain in prison. Until 2004,
she continued, Freedom House ranked Azerbaijan "partially
free," but since 2005, the country has been listed as "not
free." Shovket concluded by pointing out that the GOAJ has
still not implemented the COE Venice Commission's
recommendations for changes to the electoral code. Igbal
Agazade said that a democratic system would allow the
opposition parties to come to the table, and noted that
currently, there is no opposition representation in most
public institutions. He noted a need for state financing of
political parties, and said the electoral code must be
amended to allow opposition parties representation on
election commissions. Freedom of assembly has been
deteriorating for years, Agazade continued, and now the
opposition has to go to the most remote parts of town to hold
any sort of rally. He said that Parliament has very limited
powers; even if the whole body agreed on something, the GOAJ
would still act as it pleased. "How are we supposed to

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become stronger?" Rustemkhanli asked.


12. (C) Isa Gambar complained that the GOAJ is full of great
intentions, but they remained only intentions. For example,
he said that the GOAJ's anti-corruption commission has not
been effective, largely due to the fact that the "top
corrupted official," Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz
Mehdiyev, is the commission's leader. Gambar feared that the
GOAJ would continue its trend towards repression, noting that
there are no independent courts, no independent parliament,
and no independent TV stations to provide any sort of
oversight. He believes that this has created a greater
opportunity for officials to steal. Gambar said that the
GOAJ is trying to create the impression that the government
is strong, and the opposition is weak, but he asked, "If the
government is so strong, why is Ilham Aliyev so afraid of
holding democratic elections? Why are so many journalists
behind bars? Why won't TV stations give airtime to the
opposition? Why do they limit any of our actions to talk to
the population and hold any sort of rally?" Gambar concluded
by stating that should a real election be held, President
Aliyev would lose.


13. (C) Ali Kerimli noted concern with democratic backsliding
in Azerbaijan, which he said is reflected in international
reports on the country such as those by Freedom House,
Transparency International, and the OSCE. While the USG has
repeatedly urged the GOAJ to implement democratic reforms,
Kerimli said that the public has only heard these statements
come out in the past year. Before that, he claimed, all
statements applauded the GOAJ for taking specific steps
towards democracy. Kerimli believes the situation in
Azerbaijan to be worse than that in Belarus, Pakistan, and
Burma, where governments recently "have at least allowed
people to peacefully assemble." The GOAJ, however, does not
take recommendations from the U.S. and the international
community seriously, he said, especially regarding pressure
on the political opposition.


14. (C) Eldar Namazov said that democracy severely has
declined in Azerbaijan since the 2005 parliamentary
elections, and that the country cannot afford to follow its
current track for another six years, which he described as
the remaining year in President Aliyev's current term and the
five-year term he will likely serve after the 2008 election.
The result, Namazov cautioned, would be catastrophic. He
believes that under the current system, the oil revenue and
the increasing influence of political Islam will prevent
Azerbaijan from democratizing. Namazov said the most
important thing to consider is how Azerbaijan can achieve as
soft of a shift to democracy as possible. The solution, he
said, is to develop a consensus program to incorporate the
interests of the GOAJ, the opposition, and the business
elite. Namazov noted that he would participate in the
December 10 event (mentioned earlier by Arzu Abdullayeva) to
announce the creation of a Democracy Council.


15. (C) Ilyas Ismayilov said that while he would like
Azerbaijan to be democratic, rule of law is inherent to
democracy. While part of Azerbaijan's territory remains
"occupied by terrorists," how can we talk about democracy, he
asked. "We're speaking as if democracy is the only problem
here," Ismayilov continued, "but this violation of
sovereignty is the main problem. We can't talk about
development until the U.S. stops supporting Armenia." Sabir
Rustemkhanli noted his discomfort with this discussion and
previous similar discussions with visiting U.S. officials,
because "We look like kids complaining about the situation at
home." Only Azerbaijanis, he continued, ultimately will be
responsible for building democracy, but instead of uniting,
the split in the opposition continues to deepen. He said
that sometimes the ruling party is not even involved in the
GOAJ's "political games," just a small circle of rich
individuals. Rustemkhanli noted the need for constitutional
changes to empower Parliament to make real decisions; state
financing of political parties; and a political dialogue
between the parties. He said that year by year, people are
losing trust in democracy, and actions like the Armenian
"genocide" resolution in the U.S. Congress and the situation
with the PKK in Iraq "did not help improve the U.S. image in
people's minds."


16. (C) In response to the points raised on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, A/S Fried stated "The U.S. did not
start this war and we're not responsible for this war, but we
are taking some responsibility in trying to reach a solution
that both Azerbaijan and Armenia can work with. We will not
support a settlement that Azerbaijan can't support."
Regardless, he said that Azerbaijan cannot use the conflict
for an excuse not to reform. Turning to the resolution on

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the 1915 events in Turkey characterized by
Armenia as "genocide," the Assistant Secretary said that it
was a counterproductive resolution, which was why the Bush
administration had opposed it. Regarding the PKK situation
in Iraq, he said "An enemy of Turkey is an enemy of the U.S."
and noted that Turkish Prime Minister was traveling to
Washington to discuss steps the U.S. and Turkey can take
together to resolve the problem. A/S Fried said that Eldar
Namazov's comment on a consensus was interesting, and noted a
need for a dialogue between the GOAJ and the opposition. He
said that he understood Ali Ahmadov's concerns about
unprofessional journalists, but reiterated "There has to be a
better way of dealing with this than throwing journalists in
jail." The Assistant Secretary closed by noting that
everyone - the opposition, NGOs, and the GOAJ - agreed that
Azerbaijan's strategic orientation should be to the West; "We
will support Azerbaijan and any country that a democratic
process gives us. I hope you're all a part of that."

COMMENT
--------------


17. (C) During A/S Fried's discussion with political party
leaders, it was clear that the outlook of the opposition is
sharply divided between the traditional opposition (Ali
Kerimli and Isa Gambar) and former Heydar Aliyev officials
now in the opposition (Eldar Namazov). All spoke of the
difficulties of political parties during Ilham Aliyev's rule,
but Namazov focused on trying to build a consensus on
concrete steps to move forward. Other party leaders were
content to say that as long as Ilham Aliyev remained in
power, nothing would change. Similarly, the NGO community is
divided between some organizations who appear paralyzed by
government inaction on human rights, while others are
actively searching for a way forward in this difficult
environment.


18. (U) A/S Fried cleared this message.
DERSE