Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BAKU1078
2007-08-28 07:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

EEB A/S SULLIVAN DISCUSSES EPC FOLLOW-UP WITH

Tags:  ECON EFIN ETRD KCOR PGOV PREL 
pdf how-to read a cable
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P 280706Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3784
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 2339
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 001078 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD KCOR PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EEB A/S SULLIVAN DISCUSSES EPC FOLLOW-UP WITH
MINISTER OF FINANCE SHARIFOV

REF: A. BAKU 01060

B. BAKU 01062

Classified By: AMB. ANNE E. DERSE for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 001078

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD KCOR PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: EEB A/S SULLIVAN DISCUSSES EPC FOLLOW-UP WITH
MINISTER OF FINANCE SHARIFOV

REF: A. BAKU 01060

B. BAKU 01062

Classified By: AMB. ANNE E. DERSE for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: During his August 15-16 visit to Baku, EEB
A/S Sullivan discussed economic cooperation and reviewed
progress and next steps within the framework of the Economic
Partnership Commission (EPC) with his EPC Co-Chair Minister
of Finance Sharifov. Sharifov reported that the GOAJ planned
to present key anti-corruption legislation to Parliament this
fall, in keeping with its EPC commitments. He said the GOAJ
welcomes U.S. assistance on countering inflation in the
country, but judged that Azerbaijan may have to "just live
through it." Sharifov also gave a readout of the current
status of transit negotiations with Turkey and explained
reforms the GOAJ hoped to make in its study abroad program.
A/S Sullivan's energy and economic discussions with other
government ministries are reported septel. End Summary.

GOAJ Progress on EPC
--------------


2. (C) On August 16, A/S Sullivan and the Ambassador met
with Minister of Finance Sharifov and reviewed with Sharifov
the progress that the GOAJ has made in fulfilling its
commitments under the Economic Partnership Commission (EPC).
Sharifov said that President Aliyev signed a decree "to
accelerate our WTO efforts." Sharifov added that the
Ministry of Finance had begun budgeting money for fiscal year
2008 to hire experts to assist the GOAJ in this process,
including to pay for translation and "experts." He noted,
however, that there was still considerable domestic
resistance to this process on the part of certain economic
sectors, including the banking sector, which required
"education." He said, for this reason, the GOAJ would want
to build appropriate transition periods into its WTO approach
to allow the GOAJ to increase the competitiveness of banks,
insurance companies, and other local players. He noted that,

for example, the GOAJ had recently chosen to build a "WTO
compliant" transition period into its new insurance code.
Sharifov said that the GOAJ consulted with the World Bank,
the Government of Canada, and international firms, and chose
to implement this transition period in lieu of other non-WTO
compliant measures. Sharifov said that the new insurance law
recently submitted to Parliament lifts restrictions on
foreign capital entering the Azerbaijani insurance market
that had been in place under previous insurance laws.
Sharifov said these provisions of the newly proposed
insurance law are representative of an important balance the
GOAJ is working toward in implementation of the program where
"you don't rock the boat on one side," while continuing to
implement the program.


3. (C) Sharifov said that the GOAJ would submit a number of
laws to the Parliament in the upcoming fall session in
accordance with the GOAJ's commitments as part of the
Economic Partnership Commission. Specifically, Sharifov said
that the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing
Law would be submitted to Parliament, and that there will be
hearings in the Parliament on the Conflict of Interest for
Civil Servants Law. Sharifov reported that President Aliyev
had signed the Ethics Law which passed into law this June,
and that Parliament passed some amendments to the Criminal
Liability for Corporations and Legal Persons Law in April of
this year. Sharifov said these efforts illustrate that the
GOAJ has done what it promised as part of the EPC.


4. (C) Sharifov said that the GOAJ had reviewed the USG's
proposal to provide assistance to the State Customs Committee
and the Ministry of Finance will coordinate with the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs as well as the State Customs Committee in
deciding how to respond. The Ambassador noted that the USG
viewed this issue as both an economic issue and national
security issue and had raised it in bilateral security talks
with the GOAJ. A/S Sullivan encouraged Azerbaijan to press
ahead with WTO membership, noting that, among other things,
accession could help the country address inflationary
pressures, increase competition in sectors where just a few
firms dominate, spur economic diversification, and enhance
macroeconomic stability. In terms of EPC follow-up, Sullivan
also highlighted DOE's successful earthquake resistant
housing seminar, which was held in Baku, and the visit of
senior Department of Commerce officials. Sullivan briefed
Sharifov on his visit to Turkmenistan and, looking forward to
a subsequent meeting with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov,

BAKU 00001078 002 OF 004


suggested that the U.S. and Azerbaijan add the USTDA
feasibility study, signed August 16 in Baku, to the EPC
agenda. A/S Sullivan also raised agriculture as a topic of
mutual concern.


5. (C) With regard to the Co-Financing Working Group,
Sharifov said that the GOAJ is ready to work to provide
co-financing and would provide representatives from the
Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development to
the Working Group on Co-Financing Issues. Sharifov said that
co-financing ratios need to be discussed, as well as future
trade assistance projects. Sharifov said that he is pleased
with the signing of the TDA grant during A/S Sullivan's visit
and looked forward to the results of the feasibility study on
a Trans-Caspian Pipeline. Sharifov said that the pension
reform project to be conducted by the Social Protection Fund
and the State Oil Fund is a very important project for the
GOAJ which it hopes to focus on in the next session of the
Co-Financing Working Group. Sharifov said that the GOAJ
would like to see the pension fund linked with SOFAZ.
Sharifov also commented that he had read Mayflower's
feasibility study on economic models for linking the pension
fund to the State Oil Fund and concluded that the project is
ambitious in scope, but inadequate in funding. Sharifov said
that there needs to be a reassessment of project funding
given the scope of work recommended by the feasibility study.
Sharifov said that the GOAJ is ready to co-finance the
project and the GOAJ would like the program to start by 2008,
at the latest.

Macroeconomic Stability
--------------


6. (C) A/S Sullivan stated that the USG would like to
involve the US Department of the Treasury in working with the
GOAJ to counter rising inflation and ensure macroeconomic
stability in Azerbaijan. Sharifov welcomed this offer and
commented that the GOAJ was open to discussing this issue
with the USG. Sullivan suggested that Sharifov's visit to
Washington this fall for the International Monetary
Fund/International Bank of Reconstruction and Development
meetings would be an excellent opportunity for this exchange
of views. Sharifov agreed and noted that he would likely be
accompanied to the meetings by Chairman of the National Bank
of Azerbaijan Rustamov and President of the State Oil Fund
Movsumov. (NOTE: If Sharifov is accompanied by Movsumov and
Rustamov, it would provide an excellent opportunity for the
USG to engage the GOAJ on macroeconomic issues as these are
three of the most competent interlocutors on macroeconomic
issues in the GOAJ. END NOTE)


7. (C) Sharifov said that the GOAJ has been working with
experts on macroeconomic stability issues, highlighting the
GOAJ's work with the Oxford Economic Consultancy funded by
BP. He said the GOAJ had hired an expert from OEC to assist
Azerbaijan. To a certain extent, Sharifov said inflation is
"something we will have to live through" because of the
intense capital investment expenditures going on in the
country. Sharifov said that these investments were not just
taking place in Baku, citing GOAJ programs to invest in
irrigation, land improvements, and other programs designed to
decrease urbanization.


8. (C) Sullivan cautioned, however, that recurrent inflation
can influence expectations and become a self-fulfilling
predicament that can be very difficult to gain control of.
Sharifov also mentioned that the GOAJ wants to discuss its
interest in approaching the Export-Import Bank in 2008 for
capital goods loans. The GOAJ is interested in purchasing
equipment and then seeking re-financing from EXIM. He said
he would like to discuss with EXIM in the fall when he visits
Washington. Road development is also a priority for the
GOAJ. The Ambassador mentioned Bechtel's interest in
discussing with the MOF financing options, to include EXIM,
for the major road project they are discussing with the GOAJ.
He said he had received Bechtel's proposal and had studied
it, and if the GOAJ can get EXIM financing at good rates he
would be interested. Ratios of US and local purchases would
need to be discussed.


9. (C) Sharifov commented that there were a number of
factors outside Azerbaijan that also contributed to
inflationary pressures within Azerbaijan, including a general
increase in world prices, the doubling of world oil and
natural gas prices, and increasing usage of ethanol as an
alternative energy resource. Sharifov said that the last

BAKU 00001078 003 OF 004


factor highlighted the point that, in some cases, there was
good inflation, citing as an example the greater use of
ethanol in countries such as the United States that resulted
in an increase in the price of wheat which benefited
Azerbaijani farmers. Sharifov also mentioned that
Azerbaijani farmers have benefited from an increase in the
price of fruits and vegetables. All in all, Sharifov said
that Azerbaijan was "approaching the optimal level of budget
expenditures with respect to population size," and that the
GOAJ "does not foresee substantial additional increases in
the budget." Inflation, he concluded, is manageable at this
time.

Transit Negotiations with Turkey
--------------


10. (C) A/S Sullivan inquired as to the current state of
GOAJ's negotiations with Turkey on gas transit. Sharifov
said that it was "high time" to press ahead with a transit
agreement. Sharifov said that talks have begun, but they
will not progress until technical due diligence is done, and
commercial issues are separated from legal issues. Sharifov
said that "we need a legal document fully-based on the energy
charter" on transit. Sharifov noted that as long as Turkey
insisted on BOTAS, a commercial entity, as the primary
negotiator, the two sides would be unable to reach a legal
agreement, commenting "if we allow commercial issues to
overshadow legal issues it is a big risk for the transit
agreement negotiations."


11. (C) Moreover, Sharifov said that technical issues still
have not been decided. For example, Sharifov commented that
the GOAJ does not know whether the Turkish grid is even
capable of receiving Caspian gas and how it can receive it.
Sharifov stated that talks have only focused on a "geographic
basis" and that the GOAJ does not know in "concrete practical
technical terms" how transit will be conducted. Sharifov
also noted that the Greeks do not appear to be as "afraid" as
they were about buying from someone other than Russia and
that the GOAJ needs to look at Greek and Italian issues also.
(NOTE: Further discussion of Sharifov's comments on transit
negotiations covered reftels. END NOTE)

Changes to the Study Abroad Program
--------------


12. (C) Sharifov welcomed U.S. views on potential GOAJ
strategies for implementing reforms in the Azerbaijani
education system, including technical assistance for the
GOAJ's new study abroad program. (NOTE: President Aliyev
signed a decree in May 2007 directing the GOAJ to direct
loans to deserving students for the purposes of studying
abroad at the undergraduate and graduate levels. END NOTE).
Sharifov said that the program had not been as productive as
the GOAJ had hoped, as students sometimes gain skills abroad
for which there is already sufficient supply in the country,
such as legal skills. Alternatively, students seek
employment abroad after their studies are complete, rather
than putting their new skills to use in Azerbaijan. Sharifov
said that the GOAJ is looking to reform many of the
guidelines governing the study abroad program. Specifically,
Sharifov said that the Ministry of Economic Development will
take the lead in the reform effort and, with the assistance
of the Ministry of Labor and international experts, determine
the "target" skills that will be required in the Azerbaijani
economy in the near- and long-term. Once these "target"
skills are identified, Sharifov said the GOAJ will then use
this information to determine the amount of funds to be
budgeted for the program. Sharifov said that the GOAJ will
then reform its selection process to reflect those skills
that will be needed the most and will make a determination of
what percentage of Azerbaijani students should be selected to
learn these required skills abroad.


13. (C) Sharifov said that, once the GOAJ has determined the
total cost of sending all of the selected students abroad, it
will look to foreign countries for "complementary" funding in
which the GOAJ would fund a certain number of students and
foreign countries where the students would be studying would
fund others. Sharifov said that the State Testing Commission
will lead on selection of students while the logistics and
administration of the program would be coordinated by the
Ministry of Education. As an additional counter to the
problem of students not returning to Azerbaijan after their
studies are complete, Sharifov noted that the GOAJ is
considering implementing a regulation into the study abroad

BAKU 00001078 004 OF 004


program that stipulates that loans will be forgiven for
students that studied abroad and returned to Azerbaijan to
work. Conversely, the regulation would enforce repayment of
loans given to students that do not return to Azerbaijan
after their studies are complete.


14. (C) COMMENT: Sharifov was well prepared for his
discussion with Sullivan and demonstrated seriousness with
respect to delivering results under the EPC -- perhaps
reflecting the fact that President Aliyev personally endorsed
the EPC communiqu and MOUs after their conclusion last
February. His willingness to engage further with the USG on
inflation and macroeconomic issues, and to engage with EXIM
on loans for capital goods/equipment, is welcome, and his
visit to Washington in October represents a key opportunity
to follow up -- especially if he is accompanied by the SOFAZ
head and the Central Bank Chairman, who are two of the
strongest economic talents in the GOAJ. His confirmation
that the GOAJ is budgeting additional funds to support the
WTO accession process, including translation and experts, is
an important tangible sign of GOAJ support for the accession
process. END COMMENT.
DERSE