FM ON UPCOMING MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE: NEXT STEPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000981

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: FM ON UPCOMING MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE: NEXT STEPS


Classified By: Political Counselor Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary. In a March 19 meeting with PolCouns, Foreign
Minister Hoshyar Zebari reported he has been in contact with
his counterparts of those countries who attended the March 10
Neighbors Conference. Plans for the upcoming April
Ministerial have stalled due to the Prime Minister's
insistence that the conference occur in Iraq. Zebari
explained the PM is concerned that if the conference is held
outside of Iraq it will "internationalize" Iraq's issues and
possibly lead some countries to believe they have the right
to dictate Iraq's policies. While Egypt and Turkey have
offered to host the conference, Zebari suggested Kuwait as a
potential option since they will be viewed by the PM and Shia
coalition as less likely to interfere in the agenda or
participants. On working groups, Zebari has sent a letter to
neighboring Foreign Ministers notifying them of the working
group structure and identifying who is participating in the
groups on security cooperation and coordination; Iraqi
refugees and migrants; and fuel and energy supplies. Absent
from the letter, however, was a date or location as to when
the working groups should meet. Iraq will lead each group
and will present the committees' findings and recommendations
at the Ministerial conference. END SUMMARY.

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THE MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE: PM PUSHING FOR IRAQ TO HOST
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2. (C) Zebari noted that the Prime Minister wants the
Ministerial conference in Iraq. However, he continued,
neighboring foreign ministers have "advised" the GOI not to
insist a venue inside Iraq. If the GOI insists on hosting,
Zebari said, it could undermine the achievements from the
March 10 conference. Zebari said he has told the Prime
Minister that the GOI does not have the capacity to host an
expanded conference that would include G-8 participation,
although he acknowledged that it would be possible to have
this type of conference in Erbil. The problem, he continued,
is that the Prime Minister and the Shia political parties
fear that an expanded conference will lead to
"internationalizing" Iraq and result in other countries
dictating how Iraq should handle problems or make decisions.


3. (C) The PM is especially concerned that Egypt might have
an agenda contrary to the GOI and use hosting a conference as
an opportunity to impose resolutions or policies upon Iraq.
Similarly, the PM remains uncomfortable with Turkey's offer
to host. The Iranians, he said, are also pushing the United
Iraqi Alliance, the Shia political party coalition, to have
the next conference in Iraq. Further complicating the issue,
neighboring foreign ministers have questioned the proposal to
have one conference in Egypt for Iraq's neighbors followed by
an expanded conference in Turkey. They are suggesting that
there should only be one, expanded conference, Zebari
explained

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THE PM MUST MAKE A DECISION SO PLANS CAN MOVE FORWARD
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4. (C) Zebari said he told the PM that he needs to make a
decision so that a clear plan can be developed and
preparations can begin. The PM responded that the issue will
be referred to the Policy Council for National Security
(PCNS) although not all of its members are currently in Iraq
and there is no date for the next meeting. Zebari lamented
that by referring the decision to the PCNS it is effectively
killing momentum for the ministerial-level conference.

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KUWAIT AS ALTERNATE LOCATION; GOI TO SET THE AGENDA
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5. (C) The FM then told PolCouns that his compromise solution
is to have Kuwait host the conference, describing Kuwait as
non-threatening to the GOI and a palatable alternative. In
conversations with the Kuwaitis, he said, they have agreed to
host the conference, although it remains uncertain whether
the Kuwaitis would remain agreeable if the Egyptians and
Turks continue to lobby to host. Regardless of where the
conference occurs, the FM said, the GOI will be responsible
for setting the agenda and determining the participants, both
at the Ministerial conference and the working group meetings.



6. (C) Polcouns emphasized the Secretary's commitment to the
Ministerial conference and the need for it to occur in April.
Zebari agreed that an April date remains feasible as long as
the PM quickly makes key decisions.

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WORKING GROUP MEMBERS CHOSEN, DATE FOR MEETINGS UNCLEAR
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7. (C) When asked about the working groups decided upon at

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the March 10 Neighbors Conference, Zebari said he recently
sent letters to his Foreign Minister counterparts. In these
letters, Zebari identified the again the three working
groups: security cooperation and coordination; Iraqi refugees
and migrants; and fuel and energy supplies. According to the
letter, the GOI will lead each committee which will be
comprised of technical experts from each of the participating
countries. Zebari has left open the possibility that experts
from non-neighboring countries might also be included,
although that will be up to the GOI. The recommendations and
findings that the committees produce will be presented at the
Ministerial conference. While the letter sent to the Foreign
Ministers expressed hope that all would send represnetatives
to the upcoming meetings, Zebari did not identify a date for
the working groups to meet or determine where the meetings
would occur.


8. (C) For the security cooperation and coordination
committee Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iran will
participate. The Iraqi refugee and migrant committee
contains Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, the UN High Commission
for Refugees and the United Nations Assistance Mission to
Iraq (UNAMI). Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Kuwait and Iran are the
members for the fuel and energy supplies committee.
KHALILZAD