BAGHDAD SECURITY PLAN -- VIEWS FROM THE STREET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINS IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD SECURITY PLAN -- VIEWS FROM THE STREET

Classified By: Classified by Political Counselor Margaret Scobey for re
asons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Baghdad residents have expressed cautious
optimism about the new Baghdad Security Plan (BSP) to
poloffs, PRT Baghdad officers, and other embassy staff in
recent days. Overall, their comments hit two major themes:
(1) that residents are pinning their hopes on this plan, and
(2) that the credibility and success of the plan depend on
the extensive refereeing of Iraqi security forces by American
and coalition forces. Some contacts said they already felt
safer, and that the sheer visual increase in security forces
demonstrated commitment by the U.S. and GOI. Despite this
optimism, however, some Sunni leaders assessed that Sunni
residents could react negatively if they perceived they were
being targeted by Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Citizens have
also begun to horde food and supplies in anticipation of
limited or no-mobility conditions behind lockdowns, curfew
extensions and security operations. Some of our
interlocutors expressed concern that if the plan fails, the
violence will deepen. End Summary.

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CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FROM ALL SIDES
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2. (C) PolOffs and Embassy local staff over the past week
have queried a number of Baghdad neighborhood leaders -- as
well as our man-in-the street type contacts -- about their
views of the new Baghdad Security Plan. At the same time,
many of our interlocutors have raised the issue without
prompting. We heard some nuanced differences in the views
between Sunni and Shi'a. However, practially all of them
expressed hope for the success of the plan and assessed that
it had already begun to have an impact.


3. (c) Shi'a optimism appeared widespread. A District
Advisory Council (DAC) member from the Abu Cheer
neighborhood (Rasheed District - a Shia sub-area within a
predominantly Sunni area) asserted: "The residents are
comforted by this new plan, they are happier, and want to
participate as best they can. They are fed up by the
violence." Another DAC member from the Zafaranya
neighborhood (Karadah district) stated: "People in our area
knew that the plan was starting a week ago. This week has
been good, these efforts represent a good step, and the
people are very hopeful. But it is really the last hope.8


4. (C) A Shi'a resident from the Fadil neighborhood (Rusafa
district) reported that: "People are afraid about what will
happen, but have hope. The plan started today (Note:
referring to February 14),and people believe that it is good
that they are targeting everyone, both militias and
terrorists." In Sad'r City, one medical doctor who said he
had been forced to join Moqtadda al-Sadr's Office of the
Martyr Sadr (OMS) party explained that "this plan is the last
hope. If it does not work, residents will either flee the
country en masse, or civil war will happen. I myself will
take my family out of the country. That being said, there is
a lot of optimism; people are tired of the violence."


5. (C) On February 15, Sunni Endowment chair Sheikh Sammaraei
called poloff to say that he was heartened by reports coming
in that the situation in Baghdad was improving.


6. (SBU) Other Sunnis were more cautious. A local Sunni
leader from the Ameriya neighborhood (Mansour district) said:
"Residents believe the plan will start this week. Maybe it
will work, maybe not, but we hope it will." Another Monsour
resident expressed "the security plan is our only hope.
People think it will succeed because of the involvement of
the US." A Sunni Abu Ghuraib resident said his neighbors "are
ready to fully cooperate, because they are fed up with the
violence and with the poor security situation as a whole.
They are putting all their hopes on this, and if it does not
succeed, everyone will leave Baghdad. This is truly the last
chance."


7. (SBU) Another Sunni resident of the Khadra district
asserted "people in the neighborhood are worried and are a
little afraid about how the plan will affect or even target
them. But they are seeing that it as much better than the
previous two plains, because it is targeting both Shi'a
militia and Sunni terrorists. Still, residents are afraid."

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U.S. MUST "BE IN THE LEAD FOR PLAN TO WORK"
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8. (SBU) Sunni and Shi'a alike valued the U.S. presence. A
Shi'a from the Abu Cheer neighborhood (Rasheed District - a
Shia sub-area within a predominantly Sunni area) asserted

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that: "For this plan to succeed, the US must the lead. The
perception right now is that the U.S. is in fact leading
operations, so that is why we feel confident." This emphasis
on the importance of U.S. participation was echoed by the
doctor from Sad'r City: "We see the U.S. is committed and
that helps"


8. (SBU) A Sunni from the Abu Ghuraib neighborhood noted that
"everyone wants the U.S. to play a big role, they are even
angry with Al Qaida which has killed many people in the
neighborhood, including Sunni. People lack trust in the
government and the security forces, so the U.S. role is very
important." A Shi'a resident from the Zafaranya neighborhood
Karadah district) observed that: "A week ago MOI forces
withdrew from our neighborhood and were replaced by Iraqi
Army forces that set up numerous car checkpoints. The Iraqi
Army deployed to this neighborhood has also been very
interactive with the residents, and have been soliciting
feedback and even complaints. They are protecting fuel
stations and overall the residents are feeling very confident
with this group."


9. (SBU) A Shi'a from the Abu Cheer neighborhood (Rasheed
District - a Shia sub-area within a predominantly Sunni area)
stated that: "We are seeing an influx of Iraqi Army and
Police teams, and the high numbers of these security forces
are making people feel more secure, and less likely to bring
their weapons with them. The residents are hoping for
success with this plan especially since militias and
terrorists have already started to disappear from our
streets. We also saw that on February 14 there was no car
bomb in Baghdad, so that is already a success."


10. (SBU) Meanwhile, a Sunni resident from the Ameriya
neighborhood (Mansour district) agreed: "The high number of
U.S. and Iraqi army on the street is already making the
residents feel more comfortable."

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A DELICATE BALANCE? - SUNNIS COULD REACT
IF TARGETTED
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11. (C) At the same time, many of our Sunni interlocutors
expressed concern that Sunni residents would react negatively
if they perceive themselves to be targetted by Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF). Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashimim said he
had heard reports that only ISF were conducting raids in some
areas. He emphasized his belief that Coalition Forces needed
to have a more visible presence.


12. (C) A contact from the Ameriya neighborhood (Mansour
district - known for its violence/insurgency issues; a very
Sunni area) further outlined Sunni apprehension: "People in
our area are afraid of this plan because of the sectarian
nature of the government. There are bad rumors spreading
about this plan, specifically that the government will take
away our weapons and the militias will be free to attack us.
The only way that this plan will work is if the U.S. is
visibly accompanying the Iraqi security forces when they come
into the neighborhood." Further in the conversation, the
same contact cautioned that should the Sunni perceive that
they are being singled out for abuse by the ISF they will
strike back." He stressed "please tell the Embassy that the
Iraqi Army (IA) must not do the house searches without U.S.
presence. In the past, when IA has done house searches, they
have beat and hurt the residents, and only stop when they see
a U.S. soldier coming."


13. (C) One Embassy Foreign Service National employee
repeated the belief that Sunnis in some quarters of Baghdad
could react with violence if there is a perception that the
ISF is disproportianately targetting them. "Residents trust
the Americans," she said, "but many Sunnis believe the Iraqi
military is largely Shi'a -- they worry about a crackdown."
In the Sunni area of Yarmouk, post received reports February
15 of erratic shooting in the street, reportedly sparked by
rumored militia activity. One resident expressed concern
that a bombing the same morning had shattered hope that calm
had finally come to the city.

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PUTTING UP WITH CHECKPOINTS AND TRAFFIC
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14. (SBU) Sunnis and Shi'a alike stated that they found the
new checkpoints frustrating. A Shi'a from the Zafaranya
neighborhood (Karadah district) stated that: "For the first
time, these checkpoints appear to be thorough and are
effective, but the down side is that there have been massive
traffic jams in the neighborhood in the realm of 2-3 hours
just to move 50 meters." This was echoed by a Sunni from

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Mansour district: "People are aware of this plan because of
the Prime Minister,s announcements, and it has already
started in our neighborhoods. Residents, however, are
extremely bothered by bad traffic caused by checkpoints.
Sometimes we wait for hours to go through checkpoints that
are scarcely ten meters apart."

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HORDING FOOD AND SUPPLIES
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15. (C) Members of the Adhamiyah District Advisory Council
(DAC) appreciated the economic component of the plan. Three
Sunni DAC members told poloffs that reducing unemployment was
a critical component of security. "Since this is the first
security plan that has an economic component, we are
hopeful," they stated. Regardless of outlook, the DAC
members noted that citizens had begun to horde food and
supplies in anticipation of limited or no-mobility conditions
behind lockdowns, curfew extensions and security operations.

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COMMENT
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16. (C) All local Baghdad leaders and residents with whom we
spoke said they had more faith in this plan than the previous
ones. Several said that the February 14 comments about the
plan by President Bush demonstrated to them that the U.S. was
committed. They also said that they believed the plan is
more likely to work than previous efforts because it is clear
that the plan intends to target both militias and terrorists
alike. Universally, there remained complaints about the how
slow the new checkpoints were moving. Nonetheless, as one
Baghdad resident told poloff, "we're certainly willing to
tolerate the inconvenience, if it means this plan will work."

SPECKHARD