PART 2 OF 2: SECTARIAN VIOLENCE FORCES MAJOR SHIFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002318

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR IZ
SUBJECT: PART 2 OF 2: SECTARIAN VIOLENCE FORCES MAJOR SHIFT
IN BAGHDAD DEMOGRAPHICS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1866

B. BAGHDAD 1425

Classified By: DEPUTY POLCOUNS CHARLES O. BLAHA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AN
D (D).


1. (C) Summary: Sectarian violence has caused significant
demographic shifts in Baghdad. Before February 2006, most
neighborhoods west of the Tigris River contained mixed
populations from two or more of the city's three major
religious groupings, Sunnis, Shia, and Christians. Western
Baghdad currently contains more embattled areas than does
eastern Baghdad. Most Sunnis in western Baghdad now live in
enclosed, Sunni-majority "cantons" surrounded by
Shia-dominated neighborhoods. Many Christians have fled the
city. The first cable in this two-part series provided an
overview of the possible consequences of Baghdad's
demographic shifts, and detailed the changes taking place in
eastern Baghdad. This cable describes the demographic
changes occurring in western Baghdad. End Summary.

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West Baghdad: Once Mixed, Now Cantonized
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2. (C) Before February 2006, most neighborhoods in western
Baghdad's four central districts were mixed. As of July
2007, Baghdad west of the Tigris has become largely divided
and embattled. Prior to the Samara bombing, the only
predominantly Sunni areas in western Baghdad included the
Mansour and Hateen neighborhoods of the Mansour district, and
Salaam in the Kadhamiya district. Shia predominated only in
northern areas of the Kadhamiya district, including the
Harbiya/Hurriya, Zahra, Fajr and Kadhamiya neighborhoods. In
the course of the past 18 months, Kadhamiya has turned almost
entirely Shia, and West Mansour has become predominantly
Sunni. Parts of east Mansour, however, remain mixed, while
Shia dominate other parts. Karkh has remained predominantly
Sunni and also retained some mixed neighborhoods.

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Kadhamiya: Once Mixed With Shia Majority,
Now Predominantly Shia
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4. (C) Before February 2006, five of Kadhamiya's nine
neighborhoods were mixed, including Salam and Atafiya. Shia
predominated in the four northern neighborhoods of Kadhamiya,
Zahra, Harbiya, Hurriya and Fajr. As of July 2007, Shia
populate almost all of Kadhamiya. Due to considerable Shiite
Jayish al-Mahdi (JAM) militia influence in the area, Sunnis
generally consider all Kadhamiya neighborhoods off limits.

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Karkh: Predominantly Sunni, with Some Mixed Areas
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5. (C) Before February 2002, seven of Karkh's nine
neighborhoods were mixed, with the exception of two
neighborhoods contained in the area currently known as the
International Zone (IZ); the IZ was predominantly Sunni. As
of July 2007, the Sheikh Junaid and Sheikh Maarouf
neighborhoods have become predominantly Sunni, while Zawraa
and Salhiya remain mixed. Sunni-Shia relations in Zawraa and
Salhiya (both adjacent to the IZ) are fairly stable, but
sectarian tension increases north along Haifa Street toward
Kadhamiya.

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Mansour: Once Mixed, Now Home to Baghdad's
Largest Sunni Enclave
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6. (C) Before February 2006, most of the Mansour district's
12 neighborhoods were mixed; by July 2007, the majority of
Mansour's neighborhoods have become predominantly Sunni.
Sunni-Shia relations in Mansour are generally hostile and
tend to deteriorate increasingly as one moves further toward
the west of the district. Sunnis dominate Andalus, Ameriya,
Khadra, Hateen, Yarmouk, east Ghazalia, and most of Qadisiya.
Shia retain strongholds that surround these areas on almost
all sides, in the 14 Ramadan, Mansour and Mutanabi
neighborhoods. Adel is mixed with a slight Sunni majority.
The western half of Ghazalia remains mixed and hotly
contested, with a slight Shia majority.


7. (C) Shia generally consider west Mansour (except the mixed
section of Ghazalia) off limits because Sunni extremist
groups -- including Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI),the Islamic Army,
the Islamic State of Iraq, and Jaysh Omar -- wield
considerable influence throughout the area. The "fault line"
that separates east and west Ghazalia has experienced

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continuous sectarian violence. Both JAM and Sunni extremists
have also aggressively contested the Adel neighborhood,
seeking to cleanse the area of members of the opposite sect.
Intra-Sunni relations have also deteriorated in Mansour,s
Ameriya neighborhood in recent months (Reftel A).

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East Rashid: Once Mixed,
Now Cantonized and Embattled
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8. (C) Sectarian relations are extremely hostile in both East
and West Rashid. Sunni and Shia militias have aggressively
driven members of the other sect from their respective areas,
and they have also routed many of the Christians who formerly
inhabited neighborhoods in East Rashid, most significantly in
Doura (Reftel B). Residents report that they must carry both
Sunni and Shia identity cards in order safely to traverse the
various militia checkpoints in the area.


9. (C) Before February 2006, four of East Rashid's seven
neighborhoods were mixed, while Sunnis created enclaves in
Jaza,ir, Masafee and western Hadar. As of July 2007, Sunnis
dominate six of East Rashid's neighborhoods, while Shia
predominate in the southwestern neighborhood of Zubaida.

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West Rashid: Once Shia and Mixed,
Now Mostly Shia
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10. (C) Before February 2006, about half of West Rashid,s
six neighborhoods were predominantly Shia, and about half
were mixed: Jihad, Saydiya and the northern parts of Amel and
Shurta were mixed, while Bayaa, Resala, and the southern
parts of Amel and Shurta were predominantly Sunni. As of
July 2007, an aggressive campaign by JAM elements has cleared
almost all Sunnis from every neighborhood, with exception of
the easternmost neighborhood of Saydiya, where Sunnis
predominate. Jihad remains mixed but cantonized, with Sunni
and Shia extremists controlling various areas.
CROCKER