DEPUTY SECRETARY DISCUSSES BSP WITH LOCAL IRAQI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001995

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2017
TAGS: IR IZ PGOV PINS PREL SY XF
SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY DISCUSSES BSP WITH LOCAL IRAQI
LEADERS

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


Summary
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1. (C) The Ambassador hosted Deputy Secretary Negroponte,
Special Advisor to the Secretary on Iraq Satterfield and four
Baghdad community leaders for dinner at his residence June

12. Primary topics of discussion were the Baghdad Security
Plan (BSP),elections, and what would happen if U.S. forces
withdrew from Iraq within a few months. The Iraqi attendees
said that there are still serious problems with security and
services in spite of the BSP. The Iraqi attendees said that
security has improved somewhat in east Baghdad (Rusafa),but
that security has not improved in west Baghdad (Karkh). They
added that services are worse than before the BSP, noting
that hours of electricity provided by the state grid are at
an all time low and that Baghdad is experiencing water
shortages for the first time since the fall of the previous
regime.

Ambassador Asks if Security Has Improved with BSP
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2. (C) The Ambassador hosted Deputy Secretary Negroponte,
Special Advisor to the Secretary on Iraq Satterfield and four
Baghdad community leaders for dinner at his residence June

12. The Iraqi attendees were Dr. Kamel Shabibi, the chairman
of the Baghdad Provincial Council's economic committee;
Shatha Al-Obeidi, the Baghdad governor's public relations
advisor and member of the Karkh district council; Dr. Haidar
Zaydan, a member of the Sadr City district council; and
Haidar Mohammad Abbas, the Baghdad governor's chief of staff.
The Ambassador asked his Iraqi guests about the concerns of
average Iraqis; three of the guests said their primary
concern is security, while one said services.


3. (C) The Ambassador asked his Iraqi guests if they think
security and services in Baghdad have improved since the
beginning of the BSP. The guests replied that security has
improved somewhat in Rusafa (east Baghdad),but has not
improved in Karkh (west Baghdad). Zaydan, a Shia, said he
feels safe in his own neighborhood of Sadr city, but added
that he does not feel safe traveling to predominantly Sunni
areas of nearby Adhamiya and some other parts of Baghdad. He
also said that it might not be safe for others to visit Sadr
City. Comment: Zaydan left the dinner early to avoid driving
back to Sadr City after dark for security reasons. End
comment.


4. (C) Al-Obeidi said the security situation along Haifa
Street has improved. The Ambassador replied that
improvements in security on Haifa Street are among the
success stories of the BSP. Al-Obeidi added that it will be
difficult to improve services without improving security.


5. (C) Abbas said that the sectarian cleansing of
predominantly Shia areas of Baghdad appears to have
contributed to calm in those areas because sectarian tension
is eliminated. He added that the displacement of Shia from
predominantly Sunni areas of west Baghdad has not produced
stability, because Sunni "terrorists" have turned on the
Sunni community and average citizens are striking back. He
said an example is the recent intra-Sunni violence in
Ameriya, where last week some Sunni groups launched several
days of attacks on Al-Qaeda in Iraq elements. Abbas, a Shia,
said that he was displaced from his home in the predominantly
Sunni Adel district and that he would probably be killed if
he went back even for a visit.


6. (C) Abbas added that one of Iraq's key problems is that
neighboring countries do not want Iraq to be prosperous and
democratic, because citizens of neighboring countries would
more aggressively demand change from their own governments.

Iraqi Guests Say Services Not Improving
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7. (C) Shabibi said there has been some improvement in
services since the beginning of the BSP, but the other three
Iraqi guests disagreed. Al-Obeidi said that the number of
hours of electricity from the national grid is at an all time
low and that Baghdad is experiencing water shortages for the
first time since the fall of the previous regime. Abbas said
fuel shortages have become so severe that he does not bother
to try to buy gas for his car at fuel stations, but rather
buys from the black market even though he cannot afford to
pay the elevated prices. The Deputy Secretary said he
thought he had heard that fuel lines were getting shorter,
and the Ambassador joked that people are staying home because
they know there is no gas. Al-Obeidi, Abbas and Zaydan said

BAGHDAD 00001995 002 OF 002


lines at fuel stations are often several kilometers long and
that buyers must arrive early in the morning if they hope to
buy fuel before it runs out.

Iraqi Guests Oppose Closed Lists for Coming Elections
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8. (C) When asked about coming elections, Iraqi guests said
they oppose the use of closed party lists like those used in
previous elections. Satterfield said the U.N. had favored the
use of such lists for administrative reasons and that now it
would be difficult to get the Council of Representatives
(CoR) to change the system because legislators are members of
the very parties that would lose influence if changes were
made. Al-Obeidi said the closed lists allowed unknown people
to take office. Zaydan said if the same system is used in
the next poll he will not bother to vote.

Ambassador Asks About Hypothetical Withdrawal of U.S. Forces
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9. (C) The Ambassador asked the Iraqi guests what they
believe would happen if the U.S. would withdraw troops from
Baghdad in two or three months. He stressed that the U.S. is
not planning to do so, but that he wanted to discuss such a
withdrawal hypothetically. The Iraqis all agreed that a U.S.
withdrawal from Baghdad would lead to a serious deterioration
in Baghdad's security. Al-Obeidi and Abbas said Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) are not prepared to take over security
responsibility for the city. Shabibi said ISF are incapable
of maintaining law and order. Abbas said the security
situation started to deteriorate when the coalition started
handing over security responsibilities to ISF, so a
withdrawal would probably make security conditions even worse.


10. (C) Al-Obeidi said that bringing officers from the former
army would help professionalize Iraq's security forces. She
said that the Government of Iraq has asked former soldiers to
return to service but that the government was not serious in
its invitation. She said that she does not see a security
threat in inviting former soldiers back because criminals and
insurgents would not return to service.


11. (U) This message has been cleared by the Deputy
Secretary's staff.

SIPDIS

CROCKER