Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BAGHDAD1956
2007-06-14 01:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

POTENTIAL NEW COR SPEAKERS

Tags:  PGOV PREL IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4548
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #1956/01 1650114
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 140114Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1680
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001956 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL NEW COR SPEAKERS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1935

B. BAGHDAD 1934

Classified by PolCouns Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001956

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL NEW COR SPEAKERS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1935

B. BAGHDAD 1934

Classified by PolCouns Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Since the June 11 vote in parliament to
send Speaker Mashadani on indefinite leave, his political
bloc has been trying to coordinate his graceful departure and
a nominee to replace him. Uncertainty may continue until a
new speaker gains the vote of an absolute majority of 138 CoR
members (only 113 voted for the June 11 resolution). That
vote could take place as early as June 19 if political
agreement has been reached. Tawafuq, which began its search
from a narrow field of candidates, still has no clear
frontrunner, and Mashadani may yet survive. Following is
background on the names being discussed most actively. Each
must be scrutinized according to political standing and
potential leadership skills in managing an unwieldy
legislature. End summary.

Help wanted
--------------


2. (C) The CoR in effect advertised for a new speaker from
the Tawafuq bloc when it voted June 11 to send Mashadani on
indefinite leave and hand the reigns temporarily to First
Deputy Speaker Khalid al-Attiya. However, the apparent
Tawafuq commitment to get Mashadani's resignation has yet to
convince the man himself, who has not come to terms with his
ouster. Mashadani reiterated June 12 his claim that any
change in the CoR speaker essentially unravels the political
agreements of 2006, in which the heads of all three branches
of government were allocated. He argues that the President
and Prime Minister should be on the chopping block right
along with him and has threatened to sue. Tawafuq continues
to cajole Mashadani, who has survived previous attempts to
dump him, while at the same time seeking a new candidate
whose nomination would not split the bloc or undermine Sunni
equities.


3. (C) A strong speaker, from the Tawafuq perspective, must
carry political weight (in which age and experience are
factors),demonstrate an ability to deliver for a Sunni
constituency, maintain the respect of other political forces,
and highlight the leadership quality of Tawafuq.
Institutionally, the CoR needs a leader who can muster a
regular quorum, manage an often animated and emotional

debate, set the agenda in advance of sessions to ensure
focused debate, energize committees to do the detail work on
their issues (avoiding petty issues derailing the agenda in
plenary session),coordinate carefully with the executive
branch, grapple with myriad administrative details, and
navigate the rich political minefields of Baghdad. This is a
tall order, further complicated by the need to keep political
balance within Tawafuq -- thus narrowing the field
considerably.


4. (C) A successful nominee must also gain support from the
Shia and Kurdish blocs, both to win the chair and to be
effective in it. A candidate with strong Tawafuq credentials
but a poor image outside the bloc, therefore, stands little
chance. Names in this category include Tawafuq head Adnan
Duleimi and National Dialogue Council leader Khalaf Alayan,
who are viewed by many political opponents as too closely
tied to terrorists.

Potential candidates
--------------


5. (C) The following have emerged as potential candidates.

-- OSAMA TAWFIQ MIKHLEF AL-TIKRITI. A senior member of IIP
(VP Tareq al-Hashemi's Iraqi Islamic Party),he is
approaching 70 and might carry the weight of a senior
statesmen. Prior reporting suggests that IIP has been
grooming him for a senior position -- to include Speaker --
and thus has made some political investment in him already.
While al-Tikriti may seem like a logical choice over Alayan,
IIP member Ala Makki told PolOffs June 12 that the selection
of an IIP nominee as speaker may require some sort of
"compensation" to the NDC (possibly a ministerial position in
a future cabinet reshuffle).

-- AYAD SALEH MAHDI AL-SAMARA'I. The very capable head of
the CoR Finance Committee, al-Samara'i is just over 60 years
old and carries the weight of experience along with a
flexible political style. He has represented IIP as deputy
chair of the Constitutional Review Committee and by all
accounts won high marks for professionalism, technical
understanding, and political balancing skills. He is
respected within the IIP and in other blocs. The Embassy has
a robust relationship with him, particularly on issues
related to finance, economics, and constitutional review, but

BAGHDAD 00001956 002 OF 002


also as a sounding board for what is taking place inside
Tawafuq.

-- DHAFER NADHEM SALMAN AL-ANI. A mid-level Tawafuq member
in his late 40's, al-Ani hails from the eight-member Iraqi
People's Conference (of which Adnan Duleimi is a senior
member). His background as an intelligence official may, by
some accounts, be a strike against him. Tawafuq secured for
him, with some political effort, the chairmanship of the CoR
Governorates Committee, from which al-Ani resigned after the
Regions Formation law was passed in October. The resignation
caused some angst within Tawafuq. Al-Ani's name began to
appear in press stories on the evening of June 11 as a
possible new Speaker. Both al-Ani and al-Samara'i reportedly
signed the controversial (and short-lived) "Cairo
Declaration" in late April which caused the GoI some
heartburn and might require some consoling of the Shia bloc
to gain their approval as speaker.

-- SALIM ABDULLAH AHMAD AL-JEBOORI. Deputy Chair of the CoR
Legal Affairs Committee, the 35-year-old al-Jeboori is
spokesman for the IIP. His technical expertise, particularly
on legal issues, and well-spoken media style win him high
marks within the CoR. He likely needs more years of
political experience to carry the mantle of senior
leadership, although his instincts are good. He has been a
helpful interlocutor for the Embassy on issues pending before
the CoR.

-- KHALAF ALAYAN KHALAF AL-DULEIMI. Chair of the
seven-member National Dialogue Council (NDC),a Tawafuq
component of which Mashadani is also a member, Alayan's
appointment would maintain the political balance. A former
colonel in the Iraqi Army, a tribal leader, and businessman,
he was jailed for dissident activity in the early 1980s. His
manner is combative, however, and some cite terrorist ties.
One Tawafuq member told PolOff, only partially in jest, that
Mashadani might engage you in a shouting match but Alayan
would just draw a pistol on you. Another Tawafuq leader
suggested his name to PolOffs as one who could maintain the
current political balance and possibly provoke other blocs to
make concessions (even if they only floated his name as a
candidate with no intention of giving him the job.)

-- WILD CARDS. Depending on the progress of deliberations
within Tawafuq and with leaders of other blocs, one cannot
rule out the nomination of another Tawafuq member, to include
the aging but outspoken bloc leader Adnan Duleimi, whose name
has been put forth in the past as a potential speaker. In
the often stranger-than-fiction politics of Baghdad, and
given the delicate balance within Tawafuq, some still do not
rule out Mashadani's return. Additionally, an independent
Sunni figure could also be called in to assist (like Iraqiyya
member and former Transitional National Assembly speaker
Hajim al-Hassani). It is too early to print the playbill.

The clock ticks
--------------


6. (C) The parameters of the current political equation have
Tawafuq at the center of a challenging decision; the bloc
must name a candidate who can garner strong Shia and Kurdish
support. Tawafuq only controls 44 seats in a 275-member
chamber that must endorse a new speaker with an absolute
majority (of 138). It hopes to arrive at a decision in less
than a week. A balanced political figure like al-Tikriti or
al-Samura'i would appear to be a natural choice, but only if
Mashadani can be persuaded to resign gracefully, NDC can be
"compensated" to seal the deal, and other blocs lend their
support. At present we are hearing more questions than
answers -- as politicians seem to frame the questions in
similar terms yet have little sense of a frontrunner.
CROCKER