NINEWA'S IIP: MORE DEMOCRACY PLEASE!

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001849

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PBTS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: NINEWA'S IIP: MORE DEMOCRACY PLEASE!

REF: A. (A) 06 BAGHDAD 04017

B. (B) BAGHDAD 00559

Classified By: Ninewa PRT Team Leader James Knight: 1.4 (B) and (D).

This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team
(PRT) message.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Ninewa's Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) continues
to press for early provincial elections prior to
referenda scheduled under the Iraqi Constitution's
Article 140 process to resolve disputed territories,
especially as violence in Ninewa directed against
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) expansion
agenda takes a quantum leap. The IIP also
emphasizes the importance of local recruitment for
Iraqi security forces (ISF),especially the Iraqi
Army. Coalition maneuver commanders of Multi-
National Division North (MND-N) concur on the
importance of local ISF recruitment.

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KRG EXPANSION AGENDA RISKS VIOLENCE . . .
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2. (C) At a March 12 meeting at IIP's Ninewa
headquarters, IIP Chair for Ninewa Dr. Mohammad
Shakir insisted to IPAOs Holtsnider and Polacheck
that a recent car-bombing attack against the IIP was
carried out by al-Qaeda because of the IIP's
participation in the provincial political process.
He asserted that the national Kurdish-Shi'a
coalition is actively delaying provincial elections
until after the upcoming Article 140 referenda to
allow the Kurd-dominated provincial government to
facilitate the KRG expansion agenda. He underlined
the need for provincial elections as soon as
possible.


3. (C) Dr. Mohammad expressed great concern that
the KRG Article 140 effort will quote flood the
streets with blood unquote. He reassured IPAO
Polacheck that his party is making every effort to
maintain social calm. Dr. Mohammad added that he
maintains regular contact with Kurdish political
parties to help control these emergent tensions.

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. . . AND ELECTIONS NEEDED NOW
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4. (C) At our PRT's request Dr. Mohammad hosted a
meeting between Sunni Arab religious leaders and the
PRT Team Leader at IIP headquarters 17 April. All
insisted on the urgency of immediate provincial
elections. The imams present decried low Sunni Arab
representation in provincial and District
governments, although recognizing the Sunni Arab
error in boycotting the January 2005 provincial
elections. Dr. Mohammad concluded the meeting by
underscoring the danger these imams and scholars had
braved -- especially from al-Qaeda -- meeting with
PRT representatives.


5. (C) At a working lunch hosted on April 22 with
MND-N DCG BG Wiercinski joined by PRT
representatives, Dr. Mohammad and his party
leadership reviewed IIP priorities for Ninewa:
stabilize Mosul, expel al-Qaeda, and hold provincial
elections. After these essential steps were
concluded, resolution of disputed territories could
be pursued through a free, fair, and transparent
process. During this meeting Dr. Mohammad
underscored that all Ninewa provincial institutions
must be more representative of Ninewa's
demographics.


6. (C) Dr. Mohammad emphasized that said insurgents
use the inflammatory statements of Kurdish officials
about KRG expansion as propaganda and to paint the
IIP as treacherous for maintaining contact with
Kurdish parties. He noted Kurdish insistence that
the USG supports an independent Kurdistan. Team
Leader Knight assured Dr. Mohammad that the U.S.
supports a unified Iraq.


7. (C) Dr. Mohammad maintained these themes at two
more meetings coordinated by our PRT with ranking
Coalition representatives. At a 3 May meetings at

BAGHDAD 00001849 002 OF 002


PRT offices for MND-N CG MG Mixon and at a 13 May
meeting for Multi-National Force Iraq Strategic
Plans and Assessment Deputy BG Baverstock and
Embassy Baghdad Political Officer Monz, Dr. Mohammad
repeatedly raised the urgency of local
representation in Iraqi security forces -- but IIP's
public relations officer insisted that quote there
can be no security until provincial elections
unquote.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Ninewa's provincial government and its
Council are effective institutions, but the de facto
exclusion of representatives of the province's Sunni
Arab majority must be rectified. That majority is
eager to contest for power through the ballot box.
However, while those elections are hostage to the
Article 140 process, both the Sunni Arab commitment
to the democratic process and the credibility of the
Article 140 process itself are at risk. Dr.
Mohammad speaks credibly for Ninewa's moderate Sunni
Arab majority as well as other ethnic groups feeling
under threat from the KRG expansion agenda. His
rising concern that elections continue to be
postponed in favor of the Article 140 process
reflects broad sentiment in Ninewa. END COMMENT.
CROCKER