PRT ANBAR: IMPROVING SECURITY BRINGS PROVINCIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001662

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER ASEC IZ
SUBJECT: PRT ANBAR: IMPROVING SECURITY BRINGS PROVINCIAL
COUNCIL BACK TO RAMADI


Classified By: AL-ANBAR PRT LEADER JAMES SORIANO FOR REASONS
1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) This is a PRT Anbar reporting cable.


2. (C) Summary. The Anbar Provincial Council held its
first official meetings in the provincial capital of Ramadi
in over a year on May 3 and May 13. Having fled to Baghdad
in the face of insurgent threats in March, 2006, council
members attribute their return to Anbar to the improved
security situation in the province. Seeing an eventual end
to the insurgency and the beginning of the post-war period,
Anbaris are entering a critical period of political
jockeying as various parties attempt to define the post-war
period. The recent announcement by anti-insurgent tribal
coalition leader Sheikh Sattar Abu Risha that he is forming
a new national political party is just one indication of
the return to political normalcy in Anbar. The return of
the Provincial Council to Ramadi and the move to form a new
political grouping are evidence that Anbaris sense that
they are emerging from a long battle into the post-war
period. End Summary.

Provincial Council Returns to Ramadi
--------------


3. (U) Anbar's Provincial Council (PC) met in Ramadi on May
13, the second such official meeting in the provincial
capital in two weeks. The PC has been absent from Ramadi
since March, 2006, when many of its members fled for the
relative safety of Baghdad amid continuing insurgent
threats. Since that time, the PC has been holding regular
meetings in Baghdad, but in agreement with MNF-West and
with PRT encouragement, PC Chairman Abdulsalam Abdullah has
signaled his intention to begin moving Provincial Council
meetings back to Ramadi.


4. (C) The provincial government as a whole has not yet
resumed normal functioning because of insurgent threats.
Although the meetings were held in Ramadi, they took place
in the protective environment of Camp Blue Diamond, an
MNF-West forward operating base on the city's outskirts. &
Being here makes us closer to the people, closer to the
situation in Anbar,8 Abdulsalam told us. The PC publicized
its Ramadi meetings in an attempt to highlight their
presence in Ramadi to the Anbari people. &We are working
on bringing telephone service back, electricity back, and
to create more jobs for the young people. We want the
people to know this,8 Abdulsalam explained.


5. (C) At the May 13 meeting, the Provincial CouQl
discussed plans to renovate the war-damaged Government
Center in downtown Ramadi, which contains the Council's
permanent chambers. The PRT and MNF-West are engaged in
those reconstruction efforts, and the PC hopes to move into
its renovated facilities in Ramadi by the end of August
thus completing the return of all PC business to the
provincial capital.

Improved Security
--------------


6. (C) Abdulsalam cites the recently improved security
situation in Anbar as enabling the Council to resume
meetings in Ramadi.

-- According to MNF-West records, there were 160 security
incidents throughout the province for the week ending May
16, compared to weekly totals in the 430-440 range in
October, 2006;

--The city of Ramadi has experienced a dramatic improvement
in security. Only 20 security incidents were recorded for
the city and its surrounding area for the week ending May
16, compared to weekly totals in the 120-130 range in
October, 2006;

-- IP recruitment among the province,s young men is up
significantly. While there were only about 1,000 police
officers on the payroll at the beginning of 2006, today
there are nearly 15,000, and the Ministry of Interior has
authorized 21,000;

-- Even Iraqi Army (IA) recruitment, which has lagged
behind IP recruitment, is up. The IA netted 1,200 new
Anbari recruits in a recent recruiting drive.

-- As further evidence of improved security, Abdulsalam
and Ma'amoun took a walking tour through several central
Ramadi neighborhoods last month. Such an outing would not
have been possible as recently as earlier this year because
of the risk of insurgent attack.

BAGHDAD 00001662 002 OF 002



A New Political Party
--------------


7. (U) As another sign of growing stability, Sheikh Sattar
Abu Risha, the leader of a coalition of anti-insurgent
tribal leaders in the Ramadi area, announced last month the
formation of a new political party, the &Iraqi Awakening
Movement8 (SAI). Sattar says the SAI will be a secular
party with a national appeal (read Sunni national appeal).
The new party is clearly a potential challenge to the
Islamic Party (IIP),the Sunni political grouping that
controls the Provincial Council.


8. (C) Sattar's relationship with the Provincial Council
has long been rocky. In the past, he and his supporters
have criticized it for being ineffective and absent from
the scene in the battle against the insurgency. On the
other side, Council members and other Sattar detractors
accuse him of making a local power play. Recently, both
sides have sought to mend fences. Their relations are
publicly polite, but in private conversations with us, both
sides still air their suspicions of the other.


9. (C) In recent weeks, Sattar has stepped up pressure on
the Council, seeking a power-sharing agreement in which
Sattar supporters would be apportioned as many as 20 seats
on the 48-seat body. Talks are ongoing between the two
camps. In a show of good will, the PC members traveled to
Sattar's Ramadi residence at the conclusion of their May 13
meeting. One PC member told us that he expects an eventual
agreement between the PC and the SAI, but it will come
"slowly, slowly.8

PRT Comment
--------------


10. (C) The recent improvements in security and the return
of the Provincial Council to Ramadi are certainly evidence
of positive trends. Anbar Province is not out of the woods
yet on security, but it is not too soon to begin planning
for the post-war recovery. That is what Anbaris themselves
are doing. With the reduction in insurgent violence,
Anbaris are increasingly expecting local government to
provide basic services and to be responsive to their
needs. That impetus is behind the Provincial Council's
return to Ramadi and is even seen in Sattar's bid to form a
new political party. Today there is a public mood of
rising expectations on basic services, security, and job.
This mood is itself a sign that Anbaris sense that they are
emerging from a long battle into the post-war period. The
recent windfall of good news on the security front presents
us with the opportunity to push ahead on a menu of
economic, governance, and rule-of-law initiatives that
hitherto had been hindered or completely impeded by the
insurgency. We are now in the process of increasing the
number of civilians on MNF-West's four PRTs. It is our
intention to use these "fresh troops" to consolidate the
gains on security and put into place an irreversible
momentum that will bring stability to the province.
CROCKER