GREEK ELECTIONS PART II: NEW DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 001804

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: GREEK ELECTIONS PART II: NEW DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING
WITH POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS

REF: ATHENS 1785


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis called
elections for September 16 in mid-August before massive
wildfires had taken scores of lives and destroyed valuable
forests and property. Poll figures are not conclusive on the
political impact of the fires; most observers believe ruling
New Democracy (ND) continues to command at least a slight
lead over main opposition PASOK. Nevertheless, ND party
strategists and observers are mulling various post-election
scenarios, from ND maintaining a slim, though still-workable,
majority in parliament to no party receiving a majority. The
latter would mean either coalition government (which
Karamanlis has already publicly rejected) or new elections as
soon as possible. END SUMMARY.

IMPACT OF THE FIRES
--------------


2. (SBU) Greek law prohibits publication of opinion polls
starting two weeks before a general election. The last polls
before the cut-off date -- September 2 -- were inconclusive
on whether the recent fires had significantly damaged ND's
slight lead over opposition PASOK. For example, over 60
percent of respondents blamed the government for failing to
have preventative measures in place. An equal number,
however, also believed the government was up against an
"organized plan" of arson. In a last-minute poll, over 70
percent believed the fires would have an impact on the
election, but only 13 percent suggested PASOK would wQwithin a point or two, ND
remained in the lead.

CANDIDATES' DEBATE
--------------


3. (SBU) A televised debate featuring the leaders of the top
six parties on September 6 did not appear to alter this
conclusion. Indeed, with few surprises and candidates
generally acting true-to-form, most pundits suggested that
the debates strengthened preconceived notions about the
candidates and parties. The most noteworthy point was PM
Karamanlis' open rejection of possible ND cooperation with
smaller parties to form a coalition government. Instead, he
suggested another round of elections would follow immediately
if September 16 did not produce a strong, single-party
government. The debate also highlighted Opposition PASOK
leader Papandreou's on-going lack of focus on his party's
platform. The PASOK leader used his time instead for
personal attacks on the PM and an all-round condemnation of
ND in government.


4. (SBU) The representatives of smaller parties used the
debate as the only real opportunity to address a nationwide
audience and showcase their respective
bring-down-the-big-guys platforms. Leftwing participants
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) General Secretary Papariga
and Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA or Synaspismos)
Chairman Alavanos attacked both major parties as sources of
corruption and praised electoral politics that prevented the
formation of single-party governments. Neither, however, was
prepared to enter a coalition with the big parties due the
"ideological chasm" separating them. Far-right LAOS party
leader Karatzaferis, on the other hand, was not adverse to a
coalition, while Democratic Renewal chairman Papathemelis
denied rumors that he was prepared to cooperate with
Karamanlis in a post-September 16 administration.

SCENARIOS
--------------


5. (SBU) The fires have inevitably rekindled speculation
about a possible five-party parliament post-election, with
LAOS seen as the most likely new entrant. Given the
complexities of the electoral law, several scenarios are
being floated. One four-party variation discussed by ND
planners foresees ND receiving just over 43 percent, with
PASOK getting 42 percent, resulting in a parliament with an
ND majority of 157 seats (of a total 300 parliament seats)
versus 116 PASOK seats with the remaining 27 seats split
between the KKE and SYRIZA. But if, as some polls are

ATHENS 00001804 002 OF 002


predicting, LAOS succeeded in crossing the three-percent
threshold for entering parliament, ND's seats could drop to
154 (versus PASOK's 112) with KKE, SYRIZA, and LAOS getting a
total of 34 seats. The worst case scenario for either of the
major parties would occur if the smaller parties were to make
a surprise showing of 16 percent of the total vote, making a
single-party government impossible.


6. (SBU) Given these scenarios, ND is increasing its efforts
in the days remaining before the election to dissuade
disaffected voters from crossing into LAOS territory. PASOK
is also trying to stem attrition in the direction of KKE and
SYRIZA -- while attempting to draw more "borderline" ND
voters (i.e. former PASOK supporters who voted for ND in
2004) back into the fold. With just six days left, both
parties are pulling out all the stops, convinced -- rightly
-- that every vote counts.
COUNTRYMAN