Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ATHENS1333
2007-06-29 09:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Athens
Cable title:  

GREEK POLL: ND VICTORY BUT SMALLER MAJORITY

Tags:  PGOV PREL GR 
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OO RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHTH #1333 1800936
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290936Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9589
INFO RUCNMUC/EU CANDIDATE STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS ATHENS 001333 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: GREEK POLL: ND VICTORY BUT SMALLER MAJORITY


UNCLAS ATHENS 001333

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: GREEK POLL: ND VICTORY BUT SMALLER MAJORITY



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A recent opinion poll by authoritative MRB
Hellas predicts electoral victory for the incumbent New
Democracy (ND) party but with a reduced parliamentary
majority. According to the poll, Greek voters continue to
show qualified confidence in the governing party and find PM
Karamanlis more suitable to the PM job than main opposition
PASOK leader Papandreou. A majority of Greeks also oppose
Turkey,s EU bid and reject any &composite8 solution for
the Macedonia name issue. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) With Greek pundits confidently predicting mid-term
elections for either September 30 or October 14, the
publication of the semi-annual "Trends" public opinion
research report, issued by MRB Hellas S.A. on June 20,
pointed to a narrow victory of the incumbent New Democracy
(ND) party of PM Costas Karamanlis. MRB Hellas, established
in 1969, is a member company of Walker Information's Walker
Global Network, a group of 20 prominent research companies
operating in more than 75 countries. Trends is generally
seen as the most authoritative and exhaustive snapshot of
political trends in Greece produced by a local research
agency.


3. (SBU) Major findings of the report include:

-- ND is ahead of main opposition PASOK by 2.3 percent.
-- Both ND and PASOK are judged as "performing badly" by over
55 percent of the electorate.
-- The so-called "bond scandal," involving questionable
investments in structured derivatives by Greek pension funds,
has not sunk the Karamanlis government, as main opposition
PASOK was expecting, but it apparently put downward pressure
on ND,s lead over PASOK.
-- In the eyes of many voters, PM Karamanlis remains the
"most suitable" political leader for the job of Prime
Minister, beating PASOK's George Papandreou 42 to 35 percent.
-- A large majority of Greek voters oppose Turkey's accession
to the EU and see little prospect of improvement in
Greek-Turkish relations with Turkey an EU member.
-- An equally large majority rejects the use of any
"composite" name for Macedonia/"FYROM," such as
Macadonia-Skopje.
-- Greek voters are only marginally satisfied by the state of
the economy and continue to demand substantive improvement in
the near future.


4. (SBU) The report's findings suggest five parties (rather
than the current four) will climb over the three-percent
threshold for representation in the next parliament, with the
nationalist, anti-immigrant LAOS party joining the current
group of ND, PASOK, the communists (KKE),and the Coalition
of the Left (SYN). With LAOS attracting an estimated 3.6
percent of those who voted ND in 2004, Karamanlis, if
elections were held tomorrow, would face a thin parliamentary
majority of anywhere from 151 to 154 seats in a 300-seat
parliament, Trends found (Karamanlis' ND currently holds 164
seats).


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The June 2007 Trends paints a largely
confident picture for incumbent ND although it highlights
performance and public perception problems. Voters seem
particularly dissatisfied with government efforts to battle
corruption and reform education. The poll also re-confirms
other trends regularly observed in recent years. For
example, the majority of Greek voters see inflation and
consumer prices as Greece,s main problems, while foreign
relations, environmental pollution, and terrorism are at the
bottom of the list. At the same time, opposition PASOK has
little cause for celebration since the report highlights many
performance and voter confidence weaknesses for the party and
its leader Papandreou. Perhaps most oinous for PASOK,
Trends Sees Karamanls besting apanreou 46.4 to 29.2
percent i the category of "a commanding leadership
ersonality."
COUNTRYMAN