Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ASTANA604
2007-03-07 05:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

BOUCHER COVERS DEMOCRATIC REFORM, REGIONAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL KZ ENRG KDEM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7837
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHTA #0604/01 0660517
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 070517Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8683
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0051
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1299
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0301
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 2183
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1691
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000604 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SCA/FO (CHAYDEN),SCA/CEN (O'MARA)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ ENRG KDEM
SUBJECT: BOUCHER COVERS DEMOCRATIC REFORM, REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH KAZAKHSTANI
LEADERSHIP


Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway; Reasons 1.5(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000604

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SCA/FO (CHAYDEN),SCA/CEN (O'MARA)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ ENRG KDEM
SUBJECT: BOUCHER COVERS DEMOCRATIC REFORM, REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH KAZAKHSTANI
LEADERSHIP


Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway; Reasons 1.5(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings on February 26-27 with
Prime Minister Masimov, Foreign Minister Tazhin, and Senate
Speaker Tokayev, Assistant Secretary for South and Central
Asian Affairs Richard Boucher told the Kazakhstani leadership
that the U.S. is eager to build upon the momentum created by
the President Bush - Nazarbayev discussions in 2006.
Assistant Secretary Boucher emphasized that the U.S. views
Kazakhstan as a key partner, capable of playing a significant
role in achieving regional stability. He also stressed in
his meetings that the U.S. hopes and expects that Kazakhstan
will take concrete steps to achieve political reform in 2007.
Masimov, Tazhin, and Tokayev responded with similar
affirmations of the importance of the U.S. - Kazakhstan
relationship. Tazhin and Tokayev told Boucher that the
political reform process is already underway, with Tazhin
also offering a detailed argument in support of Kazakhstan's
bid to chair the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE). All three leaders indicated that Kazakhstan
wants to be a regional leader, although they offered no new
ideas on Afghanistan. Masimov and Tazhin appealed for U.S.
involvement as Kazakhstan strives to diversify its economy.
End Summary.

Democratic Reform
--------------

2. (C) Foreign Minister Tazhin told Assistant Secretary
Boucher in their February 26 meeting that most of the
political elite agree that progress on democratic reform is
needed. No significant rift in understanding of the
situation exists, according to Tazhin. Tazhin remarked that
he personally hopes for "maximum liberalization." He also
claimed that Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE has
strengthened the drive for reform. Senate Speaker Tokayev
reported in a separate meeting that the political reform
process has already started and he hopes that among the first
reforms will be an expansion of the Senate. According to

Tokayev, the Parliament seeks the power to approve
ministerial appointments and greater budgetary control. The
Parliament will also push for increased powers to initiate
legislation, a constitutional right that is limited in
practice. Prime Minister Masimov did not directly address
possible reforms during his February 26 meeting with
Assistant Secretary Boucher, but he did promise to become
directly involved with the political party training issue.

Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe
-------------- --

3. (C) Foreign Minister Marat Tazhin offered a broad and
lengthy defense of Kazakhstan's OSCE Chairmanship bid in his
meeting with Assistant Secretary Boucher on February 26,
calling it a test of the U.S. - Kazakhstan partnership.
Since independence, he argued, Kazakhstan has taken a number
of politically risky steps in order to draw closer to the
U.S. - welcoming U.S. capital in the late 1990s, moving
forward with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, sending
personnel to Iraq, and granting overflight rights for flights
to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan has shown "it is a reliable
partner and great friend of the U.S." In its turn, the U.S.
has responded by telling Kazakhstan it will not chair the
OSCE in 2009. This decision is not understood by
Kazakhstan's political elite, noted Tazhin, and will be seen
as "a slap in the face" with negative repercussions for the
bilateral relationship.

4.(C) Tazhin claimed that a Kazakhstani chairmanship would
strengthen the OSCE because Kazakhstan does not wish to
radicalize the organization. The timing for a Kazakhstan
chairmanship is also right. No other international
organization better integrates the West and former Soviet
states, said Tazhin, but the relationship is becoming more
complicated. As a result, Kazakhstan could bring a new and
useful perspective to the OSCE as chair. If Kazakhstan's bid
is rejected, however, it will lead to renewed debate as to
the future and purpose of the OSCE, he warned.


5. (C) Assistant Secretary Boucher welcomed Tazhin's views
about the importance of the OSCE and Kazakhstan's desire that
the organization remain balanced. Boucher made clear that he
personally, as well as others, made three or four attempts to
come to agreement with Kazakhstan on their Chairmanship
before the Ministerial. Kazakhstan chose not to pursue these
opportunities. Boucher continued by saying that if
Kazakhstan makes the right kind of announcements on reform

ASTANA 00000604 002 OF 003


and follows with clear steps to implement them, the United
States could consider coming to an agreement on their
Chairmanship later in 2007.


Regional Integration and Afghanistan
--------------


6. (C) Assistant Secretary Boucher emphasized the U.S. belief
that Kazakhstan should play a key role in achieving enhanced
regional integration. There is a "political pause" in
Central Asia, Tazhin commented, with the future of the region
"difficult to forecast." Tazhin told Boucher that
Kazakhstan thus understands that it can be an example for the
region, even if it achieves political reform at a slow pace.
Tazhin briefly outlined three issues that he considers key
for further integration - the creation of water and energy
consortium, establishment of a common market, and progress in
solving social problems endemic to the region. If efforts at
integration fail, Tazhin predicted, Central Asia will be
"open for games not regional in nature and not good for the
region." At a later dinner, Boucher and Tazhin engaged in a
broad discussion of the dynamics of the region.

7.(C) Senate Speaker Tokayev and Assistant Secretary Boucher
discussed recent changes in Turkmenistan. According to
Tokayev, Kazakhstan considers Turkmenistan one of the most
important countries in the region, with its significance only
to increase. It is no coincidence, he confided, that
President Nazarbayev has traveled to Ashgabat twice in recent
months. Tokayev believes that the Turkmenistanis will be
cautious, but that their intent is positive and change
inevitable. He has already noticed changes, even in protocol.
Tokayev also called on the U.S. to bring Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan together. Other countries in the Caspian region,
he noted ominously, might not wish to see such a linkage.
Tokayev mentioned that Uzbekistan did not send any
high-ranking figures to Niyazov's funeral, which he said is
both an insult under Islamic tradition and a strategic
mistake. He also remarked that a number of Uzbek businessman
based in Russia are pushing for reform in Uzbekistan while
simultaneously attempting to advance their own interests. To
counterbalance Uzbekistan's influence in Tajikstan, Tokayev
recommended that the U.S. build a hydro-electric station in
Tajikistan. Assistant Secretary Boucher explained that the
U.S will not build a hydro-electric station there, but is
instead helping to establish the necessary conditions to
ensure Tajikistan's long-term success.


8. (C) In his comments on regional integration, Prime
Minister Masimov focused on economic cooperation. Kazakhstan
is ready to cooperate regionally, Masimov told Boucher, but
the countries of immediate focus are Azerbaijan and Georgia.
Conditions are also good for cooperation with Tajikistan, but
Uzbekistan will require time, according to Masimov. He
expressed doubts about Kyrgyzstan, explaining that there are
few people to work with there and even fewer to trust.


9. (C) The Kazakhstani leadership offered no new ideas or
promises on Afghanistan. Tazhin told Assistant Secretary
Boucher that Kazakhstan is focused on two approaches to
Afghanistan, the first humanitarian and the second providing
capital for investment projects, particularly in northern
Afghanistan (Note: At a dinner for Assistant Secretary
Boucher, Advisor to the Prime Minister Yerlan Sagadiyev, who
has business investments in Afghanistan, expressed enthusiasm
about investment in northern Afghanistan, in part because of
the region's cultural, historical, and ethnic links with
Kazakhstan. Conditions and mentalities in southern
Afghanistan, by contrast, make investment nearly impossible,
he remarked.) Prime Minister Masimov commented that
Kazakhstan "wants to participate in the resolution of
Afghanistan," with a primary focus on investment.


Economic Development and Energy
--------------


10. (C) Prime Minister Masimov expressed his desire to expand
and diversify Kazakhstan's economic relationship with the
U.S. Masimov told Assistant Secretary Boucher that
Kazakhstan now has surplus electricity at times, but will
have a deficit by 2009. As a result, Kazakhstan will need
more power stations. The Ambassador told Masimov that the
U.S. is ready to help Kazakhstan to explore its options.

ASTANA 00000604 003 OF 003


Kazakhstan is interested, remarked Masimov, but the project
is a long term one. Masimov believes the best immediate
option is to develop hydropower in Kyrgyzstan, but "we have
been discussing this option for ten years."


11. (C) On energy, Masimov reaffirmed his interest in
trans-Caspian cooperation, particularly with Azerbaijan. He
called the Trans-Caspian and China pipelines most promising
options. Assistant Secretary Boucher asked Masimov who would
benefit from delays in expanding the capacity of the Caspian
Pipeline Consortium - the Russians? You would have to ask
them, Masimov said with a smile. Masimov also Boucher that
Kazakhstan would like to initially use tankers to transport
oil and gas across the Caspian. He is not concerned about
problems of tanker capacity, he added, because Kazakhstan can
build the tankers domestically. Tokayev told Boucher that
Kazakhstan is trying to persuade Turkmenistan to run its gas
pipeline to China directly through Kazakhstan. He believes,
however, that China will want to involve Uzbekistan, as they
claim that the pipeline will serve as an "instrument of peace
and solidarity."


12. (C) Foreign Minister Tazhin lamented the lack of progress
on the Houston Initiative, six years after its launch. Like
Masimov, Tazhin called for U.S. assistance as Kazakhstan
attempts to diversify its economy. Kazakhstan is
particularly interested in attracting small and medium sized
enterprises from the U.S.. Tazhin also expressed his concern
over Kazakhstan's continued inclusion on the Jackson-Vanik
list. For Kazakhstan the issue is one of great symbolic
importance because Armenia, Kyrgystan, Georgia, and Ukraine
have already been removed from the list. Tazhin stated that
removal of Kazakhstan from the Jackson-Vanik list would be
greeted very positively and demonstrate the strength of the
U.S. - Kazakhstan relationship.
ORDWAY