KAZAKHSTAN CONTEMPLATES DEMOCRATIC REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASTANA 000048

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (M. O'MARA, T. PERRY)

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TEXT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN CONTEMPLATES DEMOCRATIC REFORM

REF: A. 06 ASTANA 573


B. 06 ASTANA 585

C. 06 ASTANA 712

D. 06 ASTANA 22

E. 06 ASTANA 27

Classified By: CDA Kevin Milas; reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: There is widespread expectation in
Kazakhstan that President Nazarbayev will announce a package
of democratic reform proposals early in the new year. The
timing and content of the initiative is not yet known, and
some are skeptical that the proposals will represent
fundamental changes. Nevertheless, the work of the
Democratization Commission has set the stage for wider public
debate of the need for reform, and has heightened
expectations that the government will move forward with
democratization. The next step forward could come as early
as mid-January, when Nazarbayev may share his thoughts
directly with the Democratization Commission. End summary.

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"Reform" is Coming...
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2. (C) In November, with no prompting, President Nazarbayev
volunteered to us that Kazakhstan would implement large-scale
political reforms in 2007. Speaking at a lunch following the
November 14 dedication of the new embassy building,
Nazarbayev explained that he had felt the need to complete
the tasks of building the state structure and creating a
strong economy before changing the political system. Now
that those two tasks have been completed, he said, it was
time to move forward with reform of the political system (Ref
A).


3. (C) Observers of the political situation, regardless of
party affiliation, appear to believe that a major
announcement is coming early in 2007. Opposition leader
Bulat Abilov, co-chairman of the True Ak Zhol party, is
factoring the expected announcements into his strategy as he
fights criminal charges for his business dealings in the
1990s (Ref B). He told us that the government is less
likely to pursue him aggressively if the trial coincides with
an effort to trumpet political reform. Likewise, failed
opposition presidential candidate Zharmakhan Tuyakbay
believes that a reform effort will begin in 2007, although he
expects the results to be "minimal" (Ref C).


4. (C) Numerous contacts in the Kazakhstani government have
told us to expect movement on the democratic reform front in

2007. Perhaps most intriguingly, Deputy Prime Minister Karim
Masimov told the Ambassador on November 17 that he know
exactly what President Nazarbayev had in mind but could not
discuss the specifics as he had been sworn to secrecy. In a
similar vein, Presidential Administration head Adylbek
Dzhaksybekov told the Ambassador on December 1 that a
constitutional convention would be held in the new year to
examine proposed changes to the political system, but did not
provide specifics.

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...But When and How?
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5. (SBU) President Nazarbayev is widely expected to use the
next meeting of the State Commission on Democratization to
outline his thinking on democratic reform. The deputy
director of the OSCE Centre told us that a highly-placed
individual in the Presidential Administration had said that
the session would take place the week of January 15. There
has been no official announcement, however.


6. (SBU) Participants in the Democratization Commission
provide significantly different descriptions of the work of
the organization and its likely impact on the reform process.
In a December 5 meeting with the Ambassador, State Secretary
Oralbay Abdykarimov said that the Commission is considering
two stages of proposals: reforms not involving changes to
the constitution in 2007-2008, and reforms requiring
constitutional changes from 2009-2011. Abdykarimov, who runs
the Democratization Commission on a day-to-day basis, said
that President Nazarbayev would share his vision of reform at
the next meeting of the Commission (likely in January). The
Commission would then move forward with specific reform
proposals based on the recommendations of its various working
groups. (See Refs D and E for details on structure and goals
of the Commission.)


7. (SBU) Although Abdykarimov did not describe the expected
proposals in detail, he noted that changes will be made to
parliamentary powers and the electoral process. The most
contentious issue facing the Commission is in his view the
question of transferring additional authority to the
parliament and increasing its power relative to the
presidency. Abdykarimov commented that any effort to change
the existing presidential form of government would likely
provoke dispute. He added that the Commission is also
considering increasing the number of deputies elected from
party lists as opposed to single mandate districts;
decreasing the number of signatures needed to register a
party from 50,000 to 25,000; and modifying the roles of
maslikhats (local legislatures). Abdykarimov also singled
out the need to strengthen the independence of the judiciary
and to enhance the separation of powers between courts and
procurators. He predicted that the Commission would
"resolve" the issue of procurators having the power to
sanction arrests during the 2007-2008 phase of reforms.


8. (C) In a November 21 conversation with the Ambassador, Ak
Zhol leader Alikhan Baymenov, who heads the working group on
constitutional reform, painted a much less rosy view of the
workings of the Democratization Commission. Baymenov
complained that the proposals of the working groups were
being forwarded to the Presidential Administration, likely to
deputy head Maulen Ashimbayev, for review before being
accepted. Only the "mildest" suggestions were being included
in the document that would be forwarded to President
Nazarbayev for consideration. Baymenov said that he had made
a strong pitch to Abdykarimov that all the proposals, even
those requiring constitutional amendments, should be
presented to Nazarbayev at the same time.


9. (C) Abdykarimov was holding the line against presenting to
Nazarbayev any proposals that required changes to the
constitution, however. Baymenov predicted that Presidential
Administration head Adylbek Dzhaksybekov and Security Council
chair Murat Tazhin would have a large say in the final
product that would be presented to Nazarbayev. Foreign
Minister Tokayev might also have some input, given his
understanding of Western views, but would be unlikely to push
for any bold changes. Baymenov told the Ambassador that the
reform process might become an area of competition for the
business groups behind each of the most influential people in
government, many of them flush with cash from recent London
IPOs and preparing for the "next stage of battle" for assets
and influence.

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Comment
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10. (C) Comment: Kazakhstani authorities seem eager to give
the impression that an organic, inclusive dialogue with civil
society is underway in the Democratization Commission, which
will lead to a package of reform proposals for President
Nazarbayev's consideration. The truth is somewhat less
heartening; most international observers and even many
Democratization Commission participants view the process as
window dressing designed to convey the impression of
dialogue. Nonetheless, the Commission has heightened public
awareness of the need for further political reform, and has
placed fundamental questions like the balance of power
between the executive and legislative branches on the table
for public discussion for the first time. While the
Commission's proposals may not form the core of President
Nazarbayev's widely expected reform initiative in 2007, the
process has heightened expectations and the onus on the
government to put forward a substantive reform package. Post
does not expect the government reshuffle announced on January
8 to derail the process, as the dialogue is being managed by
the Presidential Administration. End comment.
MILAS