Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ASTANA2244
2007-08-19 23:55:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

CAMPAIGNING IN EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: NUR OTAN

Tags:  PGOV OSCE KZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4213
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHPW RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTA #2244/01 2312355
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 192355Z AUG 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0415
INFO RUEHAST/USOFFICE ALMATY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1813
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 0239
RUCNCLS/SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 002244 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV OSCE KZ

SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNING IN EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: NUR OTAN
DOMINATES RELATIVELY CLEAN AND FAIR CAMPAIGN

REF: A) Astana 2221 B) Astana 2223

ASTANA 00002244 001.8 OF 004


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 002244

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV OSCE KZ

SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNING IN EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN OBLAST: NUR OTAN
DOMINATES RELATIVELY CLEAN AND FAIR CAMPAIGN

REF: A) Astana 2221 B) Astana 2223

ASTANA 00002244 001.8 OF 004



1. (SBU) Summary: On August 10-12, Conoff and Con FSN traveled to
Ust-Kamenogorsk in Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast (central eastern
Kazakhstan, bordering on China and Russia) to meet with political
party representatives and local authorities in advance of the August
18 elections. Additionally, Conoff attended a "town hall" meeting
and press conference held by one of the parties and witnessed part
of an informal campaign event held by another party. In general, the
political scene in Ust- Kamenogorsk is not unlike what Post has
observed throughout the country, with opposition parties
encountering some hindrance (albeit seemingly minor in this
particular oblast) and voicing concern about possible vote fraud,
while Nur Otan dominates the airwaves and conducts the most active
and visible campaign. Local authorities earnestly claim to be doing
everything fairly and transparently within the law, offering equal
access and opportunity to all parties. The opposition parties
believe that their message - which can be summarized as "We're not
Nur Otan" - is being well received, and expect that they will get a
significant portion of the votes between them. They do not believe
this will necessarily translate into seats, however, because of vote
counting issues. End summary.

-------------- --------------
EMBASSY REACHES OUT TO PARTIES, LOCAL AUTHORITIES
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) On August 10-12, Conoff and Con FSN traveled to the far
east of Kazakhstan, to the city of Ust-Kamenogorsk. During the
trip, Conoff met with a deputy Akim of the Eastern Kazakhstan
Oblast, the Akim of Ust-Kamenogorsk, representatives of Ak Zhol, and
representatives of Nur Otan to discuss the progress of the campaign
in the region. Conoff also attended a town hall meeting for the
National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) and witnessed the awards
ceremony for a run sponsored by Nur Otan. During his travels
throughout the city, Conoff observed multiple Nur Otan billboards or
billboards featuring President Nazarbayev, and numerous smaller Nur
Otan signs on a wide variety of public places, including on the
outside windows of some city buses and trams, as well as on the

inside of some buses and trams. Conoff saw virtually no signs or
advertisements from other parties outside of certain specially
designated areas for campaign posters.

--------------
OBLAST AKIMAT
--------------

3.(U) Conoff met for more than an hour with Deputy Akim of the
Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast, Amangali Yedrisovich Tazhenov, in his
well-appointed office in the Akimat headquarters. Tazhenov said
that his focus for the elections is making sure they go smoothly and
without controversy, in accordance with the law, and in a
transparent manner. Tazhenov said there were long term observers
from Switzerland and the Netherlands in the Oblast, and that these
observers - along with the media and party observers - have
permission to get all of the information they desire.


4. (U) Tazhenov told Conoff that the goal of the legal authorities
was to create equal conditions and equal opportunities. In
practice, Tazhenov said this means maintaining the official election
list and giving the parties equal access to mass media and to
government-owned meeting space. The oblast designated a secondary
school for the parties to use for meetings and rallies. (Note: The
NSDP town hall meeting was in a secondary school auditorium. End
note.) Tazhenov told Conoff that there is real competition in the
oblast, region and city Maslikhat elections - on average, 3
candidates are vying for every seat.


5. (U) Tazhenov told Conoff that some parties have not always been
able to attract people to their rallies, and that some parties have
complained about not having access to mass media. He noted that he
had asked papers to cover events of political significance, like
campaign rallies or town hall meetings. (Comment: The NSDP town
hall meeting was taped by a couple of news outlets and there was a
short press conference after the meeting. End comment.) According to
the law, outside of legitimate news events, organizations -
including political parties - must pay for newspaper space or
airtime; even the Akimat must pay. Tazhenov stressed that it was
not his goal to promote any particular party, and that all parties
have the same campaign spending limitations. However, he noted that
even if the local authorities treat all parties fairly, not all
parties have the same skill or the same amount of money from their
own sponsors. As for voter lists, Tazhenov said that the Akimat
gave a voter list to the election commission on July 28. He
acknowledged that maintaining a perfect voter list is an extremely
difficult task.


ASTANA 00002244 002.8 OF 004



6. (U) Tazhenov said that according to President Nazarbayev,
economics is first, and politics second. He compared the economic
growth of Kazakhstan - about 10% per annum for the past few years -
to Asian Tigers, like Vietnam. Tazhenov likened Nur Otan to the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in post-war Japan. According to
him, like the LDP, Nur Otan is supported by the population because
the party guarantees good for the people, life has improved
dramatically in the country, and people like stability.

--------------
CITY AKIMAT
--------------


7. (U) Conoff met with the Akim of Ust-Kamenogorsk, Shakarym
Sabyrovich Buktugutov, in his office. Like the Deputy Akim of the
Oblast, Buktugutov said that all parties are provided with equal
facilities and equal opportunities. He said his two main tasks were
to supply and support election committees and to ask voters to
participate in elections. Buktugutov said the city akimat is not
involved in the campaigns. When asked about the tone of these
elections compared to prior elections, Buktugutov said that
Ust-Kamenogorsk was not historically very active compared to other
regions. Like many observers, Buktugutov expects the turnout for
these elections to be low due to the summer holidays.

--------------
NUR OTAN
--------------


8. (U) Conoff met with chairman of the Oblast division of Nur Otan
Tulegen Toktasynovich Ibrayev and candidate Svetlana Ivanovna Ferkho
at Nur Otan's oblast party headquarters. The headquarters occupy a
modern 3-story building with the Nur Otan name prominently displayed
on the front. Conoff also witnessed part of an informal campaign
event, an awards ceremony for a run sponsored by Nur Otan.


9. (SBU) Ibrayev said Nur Otan was following all laws in its
election preparations. Although some observers say the election is
really a contest between Nur Otan and NSDP, Ibrayev said that they
don't consider one party their rival and treat all parties as worthy
opponents. Ibrayev said that on a fundamental level there is little
difference between the parties. All parties want the same thing,
namely that Kazakhstanis live better, but some parties have
different ideas of how to achieve this goal. Regarding turnout,
Ibrayev said he had heard rumors that it would be low this election,
but he said that the government has done so much for the people that
they will show up and vote even though it's a summer election.
(Comment: Ibrayev's answer to party differences was a common one.
When directly asked, Ak Zhol also said that all parties have the
same goal. There appears to be an emphasis on shared goals and a
lack of emphasis on ideology. As in other regions, Nur Otan's
financial and institutional advantages were clearly apparent. In
addition to these advantages, the party seemed far more
knowledgeable about and focused on the mechanics of organizing a
campaign and getting out the vote. End comment.)


10. (U) According to Ibrayev, Nur Otan is very connected to the
people. All of the party's candidates go anywhere to meet with
voters, whether it's to meet 5 people or to meet 100. As in other
regions, Nur Otan also performs "social services" in Eastern
Kazakhstan Oblast - there is a room on the first floor of the
headquarters building dedicated to this work. Nur Otan is focused
on public works in Ust-Kamenogorsk. Ibrayev gave the example of
cleaning the city - he said beginning 3 months ago Nur Otan
organized a large campaign to clean up and renovate apartment
courtyards. He also mentioned "subbotniks", who spend their
weekends helping clean the city. Ibrayev said the akimat helped Nur
Otan do projects.


11. (U) Ibrayev said the Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast division of Nur
Otan often consults with the national party. He said that Nur Otan
is a young party, only 8 years old, and does not have a large number
of professional political specialists yet. In order to train and
develop these specialists, leaders of the oblast party attend
training events given by the national party. When asked by Conoff
if Nur Otan is institutionalizing beyond President Nazarbayev,
Ibrayev said that everybody knows that Nazarbayev is leader of Nur
Otan, but they also know which local leaders are Nur Otan. He said
that the party cares about the quality of its candidates and
leaders, and that membership in the party is voluntary. (Note: Both
Ak Zhol and NSDP made reference to certain organizations, such as
hospitals, requiring employees to pay dues to Nur Otan. End note.)


12. (U) In addition, Nur Otan actively sponsors events. Ibrayev
said that 2 days prior to meeting with Conoff there was a "day of
friendship" with many of the 93 different nationalities in Eastern
Kazakhstan Oblast conducting short performances. He said the event

ASTANA 00002244 003.2 OF 004


was extremely well attended. Ibrayev said that the day after meeting
Conoff Nur Otan was sponsoring a youth competition regarding the
history of the region. The day after the meeting, Conoff saw the
end of another informal event sponsored by Nur Otan, a run. There
were about 100-150 people standing in a semi-circle around an emcee
and an awards podium, located on a closed street. Much of the crowd
consisted of teenage girls wearing sports uniforms and Nur Otan
hats. Virtually everyone in the audience had a Nur Otan hat and
flag. Both Ibrayev and Ferkho were in attendance, with the latter
prominently wearing a large white Nur Otan t-shirt. The emcee
announced the winners of the run, and then there was a call for
people to register their names for a prize drawing.

--------------
AK ZHOL
--------------


13. (U) Conoff met several local Ak Zhol candidates and chairman of
the oblast division of Ak Zhol and candidate Natalya Tsikunova in Ak
Zhol's headquarters. The meeting took place in Tsinukova's office
behind a shop, and appeared to be the office from her job as
director of a small private firm (as well as being Ak Zhol's
headquarters).


14. (SBU) Tsikunova said she expected Ak Zhol to receive 25% of the
votes. She said she is pretty sure the voters will cast ballots for
Ak Zhol, but she has no doubts that the votes will not be counted in
a fair manner. When asked how she came up with her forecast of 25%,
she said that Ak Zhol has 16,000 party members in the region and
many others who are sympathetic. She said Ak Zhol held 2 meetings
with national party leaders in the secondary school and both were
well attended.


15. (SBU) Tsikunova said the pre-election period was fair. Ak Zhol
had no problems from the authorities getting posters up, and had no
problems with the posters other than petty vandalism that affects
all parties. Conoff only saw a few Ak Zhol posters on certain
specially designated boards. When asked by Conoff why he hadn't
seen many posters, Tsikunova said there was a planned publicity
blitz in the last week of the campaign. Tsikunova said that the Nur
Otan posters on the buses and trams were not a violation of any
laws, and that it was simply a matter of money. In fact, Ak Zhol
intended to run similar ads in the following week. Tsikunova said
that the authorities had not interfered with placing advertisements
in newspapers, and as proof handed Conoff a regional paper with two
ads for Ak Zhol candidates (and one Nur Otan candidate). However,
she did say that some newspapers had declined their ads, stating
that they didn't want any trouble. Tsikunova said she faced the
same reaction from some business owners when asking about placing
campaign posters on their property. Tsikunova mentioned that
although things had generally been fair, there was sometimes a
blending of Nur Otan events and official city events. For example,
Ust-Kamenogorsk's City Day was moved from August 30th to August 11th
and the celebration occurred in the main square where Nur Otan
happened to be holding an event.


16. (SBU) Tsikunova said Ak Zhol was not really an opposition party,
but rather a party of the Kazakhstani people. They have a point of
view on every question and are willing to support the government
when it has good ideas. She said the platforms for all 3 main
parties are virtually the same - improve the quality of life for
Kazakhstanis. Ak Zhol's emphasis is quality of life for teachers,
doctors, and pensioners. Tsikunova stated that Ak Zhol also
performs "social services", but these appear to be of a much smaller
scale than Nur Otan's.


17. (SBU) Virtually all of the Ak Zhol candidates present said there
were big problems with the voter lists. They said that the Akims
had - with no apparent legal basis - appointed supporters to be in
charge of the voter list in micro regions. The candidates said that
these supporters did poor work and may even have intentionally left
off supporters of opposition parties. One candidate said his family
was not on the voter list. The candidates also said there is a main
voter list and an auxiliary list of people who are potentially
eligible, and in order to get on the main voter list a potential
voter needs to bring an apartment/home registration in addition to
identification. The candidates feared that "babushkas" who tried to
get on the voter list and failed would not try again.


18. (SBU) The candidates stated that Nur Otan's power is due only to
President Nazarbayev. They said Nur Otan membership is mandatory in
a lot of places, like hospitals. They mentioned a large local firm
which requires employees to join Nur Otan and have 50 tenge a month
withheld from their paycheck. The candidates said this practice was
illegal, but that Kazakhstani people were too afraid to do anything
about it. Tsikunova said that despite the problems, a multi-party
system exists and not only does she not feel any official pressure,

ASTANA 00002244 004.2 OF 004


but she says she can go to the city administration and they will
listen.

--------------
NATIONAL SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY
--------------


19. (U) Conoff attended a town hall meeting (and subsequent press
conference) occasioned by 3 national NSDP candidates campaigning in
Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast. Numerous college-age people dressed in
NSDP t-shirts guided potential voters to the site of the meeting, an
auditorium in a secondary school. Approximately 200-225 people
attended the meeting. There were no signs whatsoever of interference
from local authorities. The local affiliate of the Kazakhstan TV
channel and another station taped the event.


20. (U) The crowd greeted the entrance of the 3 candidates with a
standing ovation. The keynote speaker was party leader Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay. Tuyakbay greeted the crowd, evenly mixed between Kazakhs
and ethnic Russians, first in Kazakh and then in Russian. Tuyakbay
talked of a "New Kazakhstan" and described in detail 7 specific
points in NSDP's platform:


1. Fight corruption

2. Reform monopolies; subsidize and regulate energy and gas prices

3. Reform and subsidize higher education

4. Increase state pensions and lower age of eligibility

5. Develop rural areas

6. Pro-family policies including rewards for having children

7. Support Kazakhstani common people. Fight decline of Kazakhstani
values and traditions. Use Kazakhstani resources for the benefits
of the people, not the few. Get a bigger share of the profit from
foreign investors.


21. (U) Concluding his speech, Tuyakbay extolled the virtues of the
NSDP, which he called the only opposition party. He said that the
Communist Party urged him to boycott the election, knowing that the
vote counting process would be unfair. But Tuyakbay said he decided
to stay in the elections to show the bad parts of Nur Otan's
practices and to show the way of fair politics.


22. (U) After his speech, Tuyakbay took questions from the audience
for about 30-40 minutes. Most of the questions were from citizens
who wanted more from the government, and most of Tuyakbay's answers
were populist in tone. Notably, he was asked about an official
language policy. Tuyakbay said that on the one hand you need to
have a state policy that takes the interests of Kazakhs and ethnic
Russians into account. He said he didn't know the answer, but he'd
like to discuss the issue more in the future. (Comment: The
ambivalent attitude towards the language question was apparent
during the whole meeting. Tuyakbay's name was written in Kazakh on
the campaign literature, and several questioners addressed him in
Kazakh rather than Russian. This led to a fidgety lack of
understanding from the 50% of the audience that did not speak
Kazakh. End comment.) The other notable question came from a woman
who complained that there isn't enough information about the
political parties. Tuyakbay said that all TV is owned by rich
people who are in government and you will never see any programs of
opposition or criticism, only cheerful reports. Tuyakbay said
Kazakhstan needs to create a public TV station so that any ordinary
person could stand up and raise issues. He went on to say that if
newspapers publish articles the government doesn't like, the papers
are bought or destroyed or its staff is threatened. Tuyakbaya said
there is a hidden struggle and there is no choice but to go to the
villages and tell the truth.


23. (U) A second candidate spoke briefly and said NSDP is the only
true opposition and that all other parties are supported by Nur Otan
and government. The candidate said NSDP pays for ads, but the other
parties get them free. The candidate echoed Tuyakbay's calls for
better resource distribution to common Kazakhstani people. The
candidate addressed a representative of the akimat in the audience
and told him that NSDP is powerful and he shouldn't think that the
authorities can get away with falsifying results.


24. (U) There was a short press conference after the town hall
meeting. Ironically, the press conference was held in a classroom
where a small poster of President Nazarbayev extolled his
achievements. The local affiliate of the Kazakhstan TV channel and
another local TV channel participated. Three questions were asked -
none particularly interesting or probing - and the press conference
concluded in about 5 minutes.

ORDWAY