Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ASTANA2221
2007-08-14 08:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

CAMPAIGNING IN MANGISTAU OBLAST: INCREASED FAIRNESS, BUT

Tags:  PGOV OSCE KZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9586
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHPW RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTA #2221/01 2260837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140837Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0378
INFO RUEHAST/USOFFICE ALMATY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1805
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 0231
RUCNCLS/SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002221 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV OSCE KZ

SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNING IN MANGISTAU OBLAST: INCREASED FAIRNESS, BUT
NUR OTAN STILL DOMINATES

REF: Astana 1906

ASTANA 00002221 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 002221

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV OSCE KZ

SUBJECT: CAMPAIGNING IN MANGISTAU OBLAST: INCREASED FAIRNESS, BUT
NUR OTAN STILL DOMINATES

REF: Astana 1906

ASTANA 00002221 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary: On August 8-10, Poloff and Pol FSN traveled to
Aktau in Mangistau Oblast (western Kazakhstan) to meet with
political party representatives and NGOs in advance of the August 18
elections. In general, the Aktau political scene reflects trends
apparent throughout the country, with opposition parties facing some
roadblocks in their campaign and fearing fraud on election day,
while Nur Otan dominates advertising space and conducts the most
active and organized campaign. Despite the roadblocks, the
opposition acknowledged that the situation is better than in the two
previous elections, and most interlocutors claimed that there was a
high degree of public interest in the elections. End summary.

-------------- --------------
EMBASSY REACHES OUT TO AKTAU PARTIES, CIVIL SOCIETY
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) On August 8-10, Poloff and Pol FSN traveled to the far west
of Kazakhstan, to the city of Aktau on the Caspian Sea. During the
trip, Poloff met with representatives of Ak Zhol, the National
Social Democratic Party (NSDP),and Nur Otan to discuss the progress
of the campaign in the region. In addition, Poloff discussed the
campaign with representatives of the Republican Network of
Independent Monitors, the Kazakhstan International Human Rights
Bureau, a variety of NGOs, and a pastor from the Living Word
Pentecostal Church. Poloff also arranged a meeting with a
representative from the oblast akim's office, but the representative
failed to appear for the meeting. During his travels throughout the
city, Poloff observed multiple Nur Otan billboards or billboards
featuring President Nazarbayev, and numerous smaller Nur Otan signs
on a wide variety of public places, including in the windows of some
city buses. Poloff saw virtually no signs or advertisements from
other parties.

--------------
AK ZHOL
--------------


3. (U) Poloff met with local Ak Zhol leader Agzam Zhumsakov in Ak
Zhol's headquarters, a small office in a Soviet-era apartment
building. Zhumsakov reported that Ak Zhol did very well in Mangistau
Oblast in the 2004 parliamentary elections, and they were hoping to
repeat the result this year. He said that the local campaign has

"slowed down" in recent days, after hosting visits from several of
their national leaders. He said the party expects one or two more
of its national leaders to appear in Aktau before the election, and
will spend some time campaigning in the regions and placing local
media advertisements.


4. (SBU) Zhumsakov and two or three fellow activists spent much of
the conversation complaining about election law violations and
unfair tactics that occurred during previous elections. When asked
about the conduct of the campaign during the current election,
Zhumsakov said that the city has failed to respond to their request
to place billboards in the city, essentially denying them the right
to do so. He also claimed that local authorities have been waging a
"campaign of intimidation" for the last three months, collecting
employee lists and pressuring employers to force their employees to
vote for Nur Otan. Zhumsakov reported that in a few cases local
officials denied the party access to facilities for meetings. He
also predicted cheating on election day, and complained of a lack of
opposition representatives on election commissions. (Reftel)


5. (SBU) When pressed, Zhumsakov said that Ak Zhol has not had a
problem thus far placing media advertisements, handing out campaign
literature, or getting local television coverage. (Note: All of Ak
Zhol's campaign literature was printed in the Kazakh language only,
though approximately 18% of the local population is ethnic Russian,
and presumably does not speak Kazakh. End note.) He said that
overall, the situation has improved somewhat from the 2004 and 2005
campaigns, though he predicted a lot could still happen between now
and election day. Zhumsakov said that local citizens are well aware
of the coming election, but that voters are tired of elections, as
they just had a presidential election in December 2005. He stated
that citizens here generally do not trust the election process or
expect elections to bring any real changes to their lives.
(Comment: Overall, Poloff was not impressed by Ak Zhol's local
operation; Zhumsakov and some of his fellow activists were far more
interested in complaining about past violations and relatively minor
violations this year, and did not appear to have a very robust
campaign operation or concrete plans for the final seven days of the
campaign. End comment.)

--------------
NATIONAL SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY
--------------

ASTANA 00002221 002.2 OF 003




6. (SBU) The local NSDP office was also housed in a small office in
a Soviet-era apartment complex, not far from the Ak Zhol
headquarters. Local NSDP leader Adil Zhurmaly-uly echoed some of
the same concerns as Zhumsakov, noting that the city has obstructed
or delayed several of their requests for meeting facilities and for
the three billboards they want to place within the city. He also
said that many sympathetic business owners refused to give them
permission to place signs on their property, citing a fear of
reprisals from local authorities. In addition, Zhurmaly-uly
expressed serious concerns about potential fraud on election day,
reminding Poloff that opposition representatives received very few
seats on the election commissions in Mangistau Oblast. (Reftel) He
said that the local party intends to utilize the recently added
provision to the election law which allows parties to send
non-voting representatives to observe the work of election
commissions on election day.


7. (SBU) Zhurmaly-uly said that overall, it's been easier for his
party to campaign this year than in previous years, and he credited
this improvement to the success of the opposition's work over the
last several years. In the final seven days of the campaign, the
party intends to send motorcades to villages to discuss the party's
platform, and to set up booths at important population points to
distribute literature. He said that his party will not be able to
campaign as openly as Nur Otan, because many of their supporters are
intimidated. He predicted that without the intimidation factor,
NSDP would be able to get 60-65% of the vote. Finally, he noted
that the party had little time to prepare for the campaign, because
they were caught off guard by the early election date. (Comment:
Though the local NSDP party appeared to have more concrete and
effective plans for the remainder of the campaign than did Ak Zhol,
the operation as a whole did not appear particularly energetic, and
the campaign headquarters was filled with NSDP campaign materials,
signs, and T-shirts that had not been distributed a week out from
election day. End comment.)

--------------
NUR OTAN
--------------


8. (U) Poloff met with local Nur Otan chief of staff Edil Jamburshin
at Nur Otan's oblast party headquarters in a relatively modern
office building. Visible down the street was a brand-new, five
story office building with the Nur Otan name prominently displayed;
Jamburshin explained that the party was in the process of moving to
the new facility. Jamburshin presented in detail the party's
campaign plan, a genuine grassroots effort which included
mini-rallies in individual neighborhoods, door-to-door campaigning,
telephone campaigning, and posting signs throughout the oblast. He
also said that the party conducted a number of larger receptions to
introduce party candidates to the voters. On August 12, the party
is planning a disco party for local youth. He said that the party
was committed to campaigning honestly and legally, because the party
wants to win respect and does not want future criticism of its
campaign efforts.


9. (SBU) Jamburshin claimed that voter interest in the election is
very high, though he admitted that turnout may be relatively low
given that the election is taking place during vacation season.
Based on his interactions with voters during the campaign, he
believes that the quality of schools, roads, and other
infrastructure are the most important issues on the minds of voters,
followed by ecological issues and the lack of affordable housing.
(Comment: Nur Otan's financial and institutional advantages were
clearly apparent, as evidenced by the breadth and depth of their
campaign effort. In addition to these advantages, the party seemed
far more knowledgeable about and focused on the mechanics of
organizing a campaign and getting out the vote. End comment.)

--------------
CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------


10. (U) Poloff also met with a number of civil society interlocutors
in order to discuss the election in Mangistau Oblast. Aleksandr
Mukha, director of the Mangistau Oblast branch of the Kazakhstan
International Human Rights Bureau, agreed that most of the
electorate was aware of the coming election, but many were still
undecided. He said that he observed a few violations, but said both
the NSDP and Ak Zhol have been able to conduct rallies without
serious hindrance. He also recently traveled in several rural
areas, and noted that appropriate campaign information was displayed
at the rural polling stations he visited, though he noted that in
general there was very little campaign activity by any party in the
rural regions.
But

ASTANA 00002221 003.2 OF 003



11. (SBU) Kirill Osin, director of the regional Republican Network
of Independent Monitors branch, was heavily engaged in training
election monitors and preparing for the election. He shared the
view that voters were well aware of the coming election, and felt
that voter attitudes are generally positive. Osin himself was not
optimistic that the vote counting process would be any better than
in the past. Osin also expressed disappointment in the weakness of
the opposition parties, stating that they had failed to unite and
present a stronger campaign against Nur Otan; instead, they were
spending far too much time fighting and arguing with each other.
(Note: The US government is providing financial support to the
Network's election monitoring efforts. End note.)


12. (SBU) During the visit, the president of the local Civic
Alliance NGO organized a roundtable discussion with several local
NGOs, including NGOs devoted to environmental issues, disabled
people, youth development, and rural business/farm development.
(Note: The Civic Alliance is an NGO closely affiliated with the
government, and seeks to organize local NGOs and seek government
cooperation with civil society. End note.) The NGO representatives
consistently stated that the local population was very aware of the
coming election, even in rural areas, and that people were actively
comparing the various party platforms, etc. Only one NGO leader
disagreed, saying that people were tired of elections, and didn't
know the candidates or party platforms. Poloff met separately with
Andrey Yatluk, the pastor of the Living Word Pentecostal Church, a
registered 200-member church in Aktau. Yatluk reported that his
congregation was very engaged in the election, and that all of the
church members intended to vote.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (SBU) Comment: The opposition parties in Aktau are fighting an
uphill battle against the formidable Nur Otan operation, and face a
number of unfair or historic institutional disadvantages typical of
the scene nationwide. These factors, combined with the popularity of
President Nazarbayev, will play a role in the final result, even
assuming a fair vote count. However, the opposition's unimpressive
local campaigns will also impact the result. The principal
opposition parties both acknowledged they have more freedom to
campaign this year, but they do not appear to have taken full
advantage of this improvement by conducting vigorous and energetic
campaigns. The reports of high voter interest in the elections are
inconsistent with Post's observations elsewhere, and may reflect the
fact that the interlocutors are active members of civil society and
do not represent an average cross-section of local citizens. End
comment.