KAZAKHSTAN FACES ANOTHER POTENTIAL WATER CRISIS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 001877

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR OES/SCI M. O'MARA, OES/PCI P. HUDAK
EPA FOR OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, B. FREEMAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV PGOV PREL KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN FACES ANOTHER POTENTIAL WATER CRISIS

REF: 06 ASTANA 934


1. (SBU) Summary: As a country short on water, Kazakhstan
relies heavily on the resources of the Ili-Balkash Basin,
particularly the Ili River and Lake Balkhash. Mismanagement,
abuse, and increased water use by neighboring China all now
threaten the Basin,s long-term sustainability. The problem
is particularly acute at Lake Balkhash, an already fragile
ecosystem at risk if water use practices remain unchanged.
The GOK is increasingly focused on protecting its water
resources but is hampered by a shortage of technical experts
and a strained relationship with China on water issues. End
summary

The Ili-Balkhash Basin: Kazakhstan,s Fertile Center


2. (U) The Ili-Balkhash Basin, which encompasses parts of the
Zhambyl, East Kazakhstan, and Almaty Oblasts as well as
China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, occupies 13% of
Kazakhstan's total territory (353,000 square kilometers) and
has a population of 3.2 million people. Lake Balkhash and
the Ili River form the heart of the basin. Lake Balkhash,
the second largest lake in Central Asia and the third largest
in Eurasia, has a length of 600 kilometers, a width varying
from 5 to 70 kilometers, and a total surface area of 16,000
km2. The lake is freshwater in its western section, salt
water in its eastern section. The Ili River originates in
China before stretching through Kazakhstan for 815
kilometers. The river provides Lake Balkhash with 80% of its
water.


3. (U) The basin's wealth of water resources and favorable
climatic conditions make it one of the most fertile areas in
Kazakhstan. The basin contains 45,000 rivers, temporary
currents, and gullies with a total length of 118,000
kilometers and another 24,000 lakes and man made reservoirs.
The total area of agriculture lands is 8.18 million
hectares, including 6.53 million hectares of natural grazing
pastures. The basin is home to over 50 species of mammals
and 120 species of birds.

The Domestic Threat

4.(U) Misuse, overuse, and abuse of Lake Balkhash and the Ili
River threaten the long-term sustainability of the
Ili-Balkhash basin. The lake,s ecosystem is fragile because
it is extremely shallow, with an average depth of only 5.8
meters. Intensive economic activity in southeastern
Kazakhstan has led to increased water consumption.
Watersystems that drain into nearby farms consume twice the
water that similar sized European and American operations
require. As a result water levels have decreased, and
coastal areas have degraded. The surface area of the lake
was reduced from 21,400 square kilometers in 1961 to 17,000
square kilometers in 1999. From 1972 to 2001, according to
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Division of
Early Warning and Assessment, the southern part of the lake's
surface decreased by approximately 150 sq kilometers.


5. (U) Pollution has also done serious harm to the
Ili-Balkhash ecosystem. The Balkhash mining and smelting
plant (Balkhashtvetmet),which sits on the shores of Lake
Balkhash, pollutes the lake with heavy metal and sulfites,
according to UNEP. Bagban Taimbetov, the Karaganda region's
deputy state prosecutor, told the Kazakhstani media in 2006
that 1800 tons of dust discarded by Balkhashtsvetmet settles
on the surface of the lake annually, including 140 tons of
copper, 120 tons of lead, and 135 tons of zinc. As many as
600 tons of heavy metals and harmful microelements dissolve
in the water and settle to the bottom. He also reported that
in the tissues of fish caught in Balkhash, chrome content has
increased 13 times, zinc 11 times, and nickel doubled over
the last ten years. Bulat Bekniyazov, Ministry of Environment
Department of Environmental Problems, Sciences and
Monitoring, told ESToff that fish production in Balkhash has
decreased by 40 million tons since the 1960s.

The External Threat


6. (SBU) Western China,s growing thirst for water also
threatens the Ili-Balkhash Basin. With a booming economy and
a growing population, western China,s water needs are almost
certain to keep growing. According to public reports, China

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intends to divert more water from the Ili to develop its oil
industry. Anatoliy Ryabtsev, Chairman of Kazakhstan's
Committee on Water Resources, told ESToff that Kazakhstan has
information that China has started to build a new water use
facility for the Ili. Ryabtsev also informed ESToff that
China has admitted that the country,s industrial growth is
surpassing its ability to prevent the Ili,s pollution
(reftel).


7. (SBU) Kazakhstan lacks data, however, on China,s use of
the Ili. Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Water Resources
Mukhtar Zhakenov told ESToff in May that the information
Kazakhstan possesses is dated, making it impossible to
predict China,s future use. In a March meeting, the
Ministry of Environment,s Bulat Bekniyazov reported to
ESToff that they have no official information from China as
to whether they are using more water. He did note, however,
that Kazakhstani officials visiting China have noticed an
increased number of water facilities on the Ili.


8. (U) In March, Kazakhstan hosted a meeting on Ili-Balkhash
Basin integrated management attended by representatives from
Kyrgyzstan and China. The parties agreed to support
development and introduction of an integrated management plan
for the Ili-Balkhash Basin. They also recommended finalizing
a draft agreement by the end of the year on integrated basin
management.


9. (SBU) Talks broke down, however, when China rejected
Kazakhstan,s offer to send China large stocks of free or
heavily subsidized food for 10 years in exchange for a
commitment from China to allow an unimpeded flow of river
water into Lake Balkhash. According to Bekniyazov, who
attended the meeting, the Chinese refused to provide details
on their use of the Ili River. The Chinese also argued that
Kazakhstan already has ample water resources, said
Bekniyazov.

A Visit to Balkhash


10. (U) In early June, ESToff, Acting EST Hub Officer and
Embassy Tashkent Scientific Affairs Specialist traveled to
Balkhash, a city of 74,000 on the shores of Lake Balkhash.
Upon approaching Balkhash, the first noticeable sight was the
tremendous cloud of smoke emanating from Balkhashtsvetmet,
giving Balkhash the look of a U.S. steel city in years past.


11. (U) City Akim Kazhmurat Tokushev told ESToff that Lake
Balkhash is healthy, and that no industry in Balkhash creates
serious pollution. A representative from Balkhashsvetmet
present at the meeting with the Akim stated that the firm has
never been fined for environmental pollution. He added that
Balkhashsvetmet plans to introduce cleaner technologies at
its plant, although he could not give a fixed date for the
introduction of the technology. The Akim also emphasized the
importance of Balkhashsvetmet for the city; the plant
employees 12,000 people.


12. (U) While in Balkhash, ESToff also met with NGO
representatives Iskander Mirkhashimov of the Regional
Environmental Center for Central Asia and Sayatbek
Beysembekov of the Balkhash Environmental Center. Both
agreed that the greatest threat facing Lake Balkhash is water
loss. If the lake decreases 1 to 1.5 meters from current
water levels, they said, the results will be catastrophic for
Lake Balkhash and the region. According to Mirkhashmidov, as
the lake bed increases, the salinity of the entire lake will
increase, and more salt and dust will be blown by wind across
the Ili-Balkhash region, leading to the melting of glaciers,
drought, and desertification. The Ministry of Environment's
Bekniyazov delivered a similar message to ESToff in an
earlier meeting, saying that a small decrease in Balkhash
water levels could lead to many of the same problems
witnessed at the Aral Sea.


13. (U) Focusing on China, Mirkhashimov reiterated that
Kazakhstan lacks sufficient data on China,s water use. One
solution, he suggested, would be to place measuring posts on
the Chinese border, but he questioned whether Kazakhstan
would have the personnel to man the posts. He added that
Kazakhstan should not make China the scapegoat for all of
Balkhash,s problems. Kazakhstan has created many
environmental programs, he said, but has struggled to

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implement them because of a lack of human resources. He
noted that the Ministry of Agriculture's Committee on Water
Resources only has several working level-experts who are
overstretched because of Kazakhstan's many water problems.


14. (SBU) Comment: Kazakhstan must improve its water
management practices and reach an understanding with China on
water-sharing if it is to ensure the sustainability of Lake
Balkhash and the Ili-Basin. The U.S. can play a role as
Kazakhstan searches for solutions. Post intends to send
three Kazakhstani water experts to the U.S. as part of the
International Visitors Program. Further interaction with
U.S. water experts will be appreciated by Kazakhstan as it
attempts to deepen its own pool of experts and may help
Kazakhstan to avoid an environmental crisis. End comment.
MILAS