KAZAKHSTAN: MAZHILIS ELECTION ROUNDDUP, JULY 2

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 001801

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TAGS: PGOV OSCE KZ

SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MAZHILIS ELECTION ROUNDDUP, JULY 2


1. (U) This is the first in a series of weekly election roundups in
advance of Kazakhstan's August 18 Mazhilis and Maslikhat elections.
Items were drawn primarily from the local press and media.

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Social Democratic Party and True Ak Zhol Merge
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2. (U) On June 23 in Almaty two opposition parties, the Social
Democratic Party and the True Ak Zhol, held congresses where the
delegates supported the merger of the two parties. They then
conducted a joint meeting to discuss their forthcoming merger. In
their speeches the leaders of the parties, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay and
Bolat Abilov, stressed they were merging not simply because of the
upcoming elections to Mazhilis, but because their party platforms
were very close and their intention was a long-term partnership.
Both leaders expressed hope that the Communist Party of Kazakhstan
and the unregistered Alga party would join their cause.


3. (U) According to Marzhan Aspandiyarova, an activist of the True
Ak Zhol party, this meeting was a preliminary joint meeting on the
merger. The next step will include similar meetings of the two
parties' branches in every region of the country. On July 7 the two
parties will conduct a joint congress in Almaty. This congress will
elect the new party leadership and will nominate candidates for the
party list. Because the early elections to Mazhilis do not leave
time for a formal merger, the new grouping will retain the name
Social Democratic Party; members of True Ak Zhol will leave their
party and formally join the Social Democrats.


4. (U) The leader of the Communist Party, Serikbolsyn Abdildin,
showed up at the meeting, but quickly left. Some opposition
activists suggested Abdildin was offended because he had not been
given the floor. According to Tolen Tokhtasynov, Abdildin's deputy,
the Communists do not plan to join the new party.


5. (U) The election law forbids two of the True Ak Zhol leaders,
Bulat Abilov and Tulegen Zhukeyev, from running for Parliament.
Abilov has a conviction record: on July 24, 2006 the city court of
Temirtau gave Abilov a 3-year suspended sentence with two years of
probation for insulting a police officer. Tulegen Zhukeyev lived
abroad from 1995 to 2003 as Kazakhstan's ambassador to Korea and
Iran. According to the recent constitutional amendments, a
candidate for Mazhilis must have lived in Kazakhstan for the last 10
years. Out of three co-chairmen of True Ak Zhol, only one, Oraz
Zhandosov, has a chance to win a seat in the Mazhilis.

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Alga Party
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6. (U) According to a report in the June 21 "Taszhargan" weekly,
Bulat Abilov and Tulegen Zhukeyev attended a recent meeting of the
Alga leadership. Abilov and Zhukeyev tried to persuade their
comrades in arms "to consolidate their efforts," but failed. Alga's
press service confirmed on June 22 that the party would not join the
Social Democratic Party. Fourteen out of seventeen regional
branches of the party rejected the idea. On June 20 the majority of
the party political council also voted against convening a congress
on the merger. Party leader Asylbek Kozhakhmetov spoke at the June
23 Social Democratic Party / True Ak Zhol congresses. Kozhakhmetov
welcomed the new party, but gave no promise to join it. According
to opposition journalist Yermurat Bapi, there is a split in the
Alga: Kozhakhmetov and a number of the party activists would like to
join the new block, but influential banker Mukhtar Ablyazov, who
finances Alga, is opposed.

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Comments by analysts and reporters
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7. (SBU) In a private conversation with a Pol FSN, journalist Ayan
Sharipbayev of "Svoboda Slova" weekly said that according to his
anonymous sources, President Nazarbayev assured Tuyakbay during
their last meeting that a united opposition party would receive a
certain number of seats in the Mazhilis. The True Ak Zhol leaders
then agreed to merge with the Social Democratic Party, as it is
their only chance to survive and to have some representatives in
Parliament. According to Sharipbayev it was President Nazarbayev's
idea to merge all opposition parties into one.


8. (SBU) Recently, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay spoke about the Social
Democratic Party's chances in the upcoming elections: "Even if

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administrative resources are used, we will get no less than 30% of
the seats." (Interfax, June 23). However, political analyst Petr
Svoik told Pol FSN on June 23 that the united opposition party may
win only the minimum 7% required to obtain seats, which translates
to six or seven seats in the Mazhilis.


9. (U) Well-known opposition journalist Sergey Duvanov discussed the
merger of the opposition parties in an article on an opposition web
site (www.kub.kz, June 22). According to Duvanov, the authorities
have an interest in the merger of opposition parties. A year ago
Nazarbayev mentioned that it was time to finish with the "flood" of
opposition parties and that a matured political regime needs a
two-party system. According to Duvanov, the Social Democratic Party
is the most appropriate base for merging all opposition parties.
The main opposition parties have agreed to recognize the current
status of President Nazarbayev and agreed to a compromise which
includes principles of constructive opposition and readiness to
fight for power in Parliament. This scenario suits President
Nazarbayev, who in Duvanov's view can more easily control a few
opposition members in the Mazhilis.


10. (U) Political analyst Dosym Satpayev expects no political
intrigue in the upcoming elections to Mazhilis. (Nachnyen s
Ponedelnika weekly, June 22-28) The united opposition will compete
not only with the presidential Nur Otan, but with the Ak Zhol and
Adilet who also agreed to unite their efforts. The opposition may
get several seats in the Mazhilis, which will not allow them to
influence Parliament. Standing alone, neither the Social Democratic
Party nor True Ak Zhol would overcome the 7% threshold. They had to
merge, because the law bans creating election blocs.

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Central Election Commission Preparations
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11. (SBU) After the elections were announced, the Central Election
Commission (CEC) proceeded quickly with its preparations. CEC
member Marat Sarsembayev told Pol FSN that the CEC was well aware of
the upcoming announcement and was prepared. On June 21, the CEC
issued a calendar for the elections. June 22 was the first day when
nomination of candidates to run in Mazhilis and Maslikhat elections
could begin. The CEC issued a press release explaining that
candidates to be included on political party lists should be
approved by the majority votes of the party's highest ruling
council, and must be party members, citizens of Kazakhstan above 25
years old, and have lived in Kazakhstan at least the last 10 years.
Candidates judged by a court to be incapable, or candidates who
served sentences in jail, are ineligible to run. Upon approval by
the party's ruling council, the lists and records of its meeting
must be filed with the CEC along with each candidate's application
showing that he/she is willing to run in the elections. Candidates
to maslikhats can be nominated by public organizations or individual
citizens can self-nominate.


12. (U) On June 25, the CEC issued rules on the format of
information on political parties and candidates to maslikhats to be
posted on bulletin boards in precincts, approved the forms of
ballots including protection measures against forgery, and approved
the form of voter lists. It also passed guidelines for issuance of
absentee ballots; on accreditation of international observers, which
is done through the MFA and must be completed by August 12; and on
e-voting, which will be used in more than 1500 precincts (5% more
than in 2005 elections). As in the past, the voters will be offered
an option of selecting between the traditional voting by paper
ballots and electronic voting.


13. (U) The CEC cancelled a number of its old regulations and
replaced them with new ones to make legislation comply with the
recent amendments of the Constitution and the election law. For
example, under the new system there are no circuit election
commissions for the Mazhilis elections and no election blocs of
political parties. The CEC also increased the number of printed
ballots, raising the reserve to 1% (compared to 0.1% in the past).

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Rules for Media
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14. (U) On June 22 and 27, the CEC held workshops for media
representatives in Aktau and Almaty on election coverage. The CEC
stressed the need for equal and unbiased access to media sources for
all political parties and candidates and objective coverage of the
election campaign. According to the CEC, the media should not

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publish information which damages any candidate's honor, dignity and
business reputation, calls for the overthrow of the constitutional
order, or instigates racial or inter-ethnic hatred. If media
reporters or editors run in the elections they must step down from
performance of their official duties for the time of the campaign.


15. (U) The CEC experts reminded media representatives that all
media outlets interested in covering candidates' or political
parties' election campaigns should post their prices for publication
(broadcast) of campaign materials by July 2, and also send their
pricelists to local election commissions and the CEC. Those media
outlets that fail to meet this requirement will not be allowed to
publish campaign materials.


16. (U) The CEC said that information coming from election
commissions should be treated as a priority and it should be
delivered to readers and the audience quickly, without any delays.
An example is the upcoming publication of the names of candidates on
party lists: they must be published in the media by the legal
deadline. If necessary, newspapers must add supplementary pages to
their regular format.

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Campaign Funds
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17. (U) During these workshops for the media, CEC expert Alma
Omarova explained the rules for funding of political parties'
election campaigns. Political parties must pay for their
candidates' campaigns, publications and media advertising out of
their own election funds. These funds may be formed from two
sources: the parties' own resources, and contributions by individual
citizens and organizations. A candidate, however, cannot use his/her
own resources. Expenditures from a political party's own fund cannot
exceed 48,760,000 tenge ($400,000) and voluntary contributions
cannot more exceed 97,520,000 tenge ($800,000). Thus the total
amount of a political party's election fund shall not exceed
146,280,000 tenge ($1,200,000) regardless of the number of
candidates. Foreign support is banned. Political parties may not
fund their campaigns with any government resources. The government,
however, will give each political party an opportunity to
participate in TV debates on one of the national TV channels. The
channel will be selected by the CEC.


18. (U) Candidates for maslikhats may use the following resources:
the government will provide a guaranteed minimum media coverage
(15-minute presentation on TV, 10-minute presentation on radio, and
2 articles in press); the candidate's own election fund which cannot
exceed 975,200 tenge ($8,000) and voluntary contributions not
exceeding 2,925,600 tenge ($24,000). Candidates nominated by public
organizations or political parties may get additional support from
them in the amount of 1,950,400 tenge (about $16,000).

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Nur Otan Begins Its Campaign
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19. (U) National TV channels recently began broadcasting Nur Otan's
public service announcements, programs and news items on the party's
social support projects. The broadcasts were supplemented by
numerous newspaper publications. One of its mostly widely covered
projects was a train traveling around the country, stopping at small
settlements where Nur Otan activists talked to people about
political reforms and elections and offered various types of
support: health check-ups, legal advice, musical performances,
shows, and sports competitions. Another strong public relations
project was State Secretary Kanat Saudabayev's tour of the regions
with a group of former Mazhilis members. The purpose of the trip was
to assess the social and political situation in regions on the eve
of the upcoming elections and to explain the early dissolution of
the Mazhilis and the importance of further democratic reform.
Saudabayev visited Ust-Kamenogorsk, Atyrau, Aktau, and Southern
Kazakhstan. In his media interviews, Saudabayev said that people
welcome President Nazarbayev's initiatives on further
democratization and the upcoming Mazhilis elections which will
demonstrate Kazakhstan's economic and political leadership.


20. (U) Several well-known politicians recently joined Nur Otan. On
June 25, Senate speaker Kasymzhomart Tokayev, Kazyna holding
President Kairat Kelimbetov, and mayor of Almaty Imangali
Tasmagambetov announced that they had joined Nur Otan. The next day,
Chairman of the Airspace Agency Talgat Musabayev became a member of
Nur Otan. In his interview with Kazakhstan TV channel, Musabayev

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said that he had always accomplished assignments given to him by the
president, and would always do so in future. He said that he
considered his Nur Otan membership as another assignment and he
would try to accomplish it very successfully.


21. (U) Khabar TV broadcast interviews and statements by government
leaders, politicians, political observers, and rank and file people
who were unanimous in their support of "President Nazarbayev's wise
decisions on further democratization." Kazpravda (6-23-07)
published a collective letter of all employees of
Sokolovsko-Sarbaiski mining factory stating that they all
unanimously support amendments into the Constitution, the
President's choice of the way of Kazakhstan's further development,
and the new mechanism of Mazhilis elections. The letter stated that
all employees of the factory will support Nur-Otan's candidates in
the Mazhilis and Maslikhat elections.


22. (U) In addition, Kazakhstan's ethnic and cultural centers
reported on their unanimous support of the early dissolution of the
Mazhilis and the initiative to elect representatives of the
Kazakhstan Peoples Assembly to the Mazhilis. Nur Otan held
conferences in the regions to pull their forces together and
nominate candidates to Maslikhats and delegates to the upcoming
party conference scheduled for July 4.


23. (U) This flurry of activity led to criticism of Nur Otan for
violation of the law which establishes the date when the parties may
begin their election campaigns. Opposition parties accused the
president's party of abusing the administrative resources and
starting its campaign several months before announcement of the
elections. Ualikhan Kaisarov, Director of the Astana office of True
Ak Zhol, gave an interview to Channel 31 TV in which he criticized
Nur Otan's powerful administrative influence, alleging that Nur Otan
used this influence to begin broadcasting its PSAs and other
information several months before the announcement of elections. He
claimed that no media outlet would dare to run opposition parties'
early advertisements.


24. (U) However, the CEC does not see any violations of the law by
Nur Otan: Deputy Chairman Vladimir Foos stated in a media interview
that at this stage political parties can be considered as
participants of the pre-electoral marathon. Political campaigning
begins only after a party forwards its list of candidates and after
the list is registered. According to Foos, under the law on
advertisement and on political parties, the parties are free to
advertise their activities now.

MILAS