KAZAKHSTAN: RAKHAT ALIYEV,S THIRD STRIKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 001415

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (M. O'MARA)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: RAKHAT ALIYEV,S THIRD STRIKE

REF: A. ASTANA 834


B. ASTANA 1129

C. ASTANA 1357

Classified By: Amb. John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: In a bizarre turn of events, presidential
son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev appears to have finally exhausted
President Nazarbayev's patience with a series of rash public
statements accusing Kazakhstani officials of criminal
activity and criticizing the recent package of constitutional
amendments. The Ministry of Interior announced on May 23
that a criminal case has been opened against Aliyev and two
associates for the alleged kidnapping of two Nurbank
officials in mid-January, one of whom remains missing after
disappearing a second time in late January. In a clear sign
that the gloves are off, Kazakhstani law enforcement
officials have allowed one of the men to make his accusations
public in a written statement and taped address broadcast on
television. Foreign Minister Tazhin informed the Ambassador
that Aliyev will give a press conference on May 24 in Vienna,
and asked for U.S. restraint in reacting to what will
undoubtedly be incendiary accusations. End summary.

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Aliyev Digs His Hole Deeper
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2. (SBU) Over the past week the scandal surrounding
presidential son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev's alleged involvement
in the January kidnapping of Nurbank officials (Refs A and B)
has come to a head against the backdrop of intense public
debate over constitutional reforms and presidential term
limits. Aliyev, currently Kazakhstan's ambassador to Austria
and the OSCE, has appeared desperate to deflect attention
from the mounting allegations against him.


3. (SBU) In a statement published in his Karavan newspaper on
May 18, Aliyev accused Almaty mayor Imangali Tasmagambetov
and Minister of Internal Affairs Baurzhan Mukhamedzhanov of
conspiring against him and of being engaged in criminal
fraud. Aliyev alleged that money stolen from Nurbank, where
Tasmagambetov's nephew Abilmazhen Gilimov was chairman, had
been used for land speculation in Almaty.


4. (SBU) Following the announcement of the reform package
which included a provision lifting term limits on President
Nazarbayev (Ref C),Aliyev told the Financial Times that the
decision to lift term limits "would not improve the
republic's chances of winning the OSCE presidency." He added
that "I fear that my many years of work on the campaign may
not bring success." In an apparent attempt to counterbalance
her husband's comments, first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva
told Kazakhstan Today on May 22 that she had signed the
proposal to lift constitutional term limits on Nazarbayev
because "his historic mission is far from being
accomplished," and "strong presidential power is the chief
guarantee of stability and democratic development."

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Ministry of Internal Affairs Drops a Bombshell
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5. (U) On May 23, the Ministry of Internal Affairs held a
press conference in Astana to announce that a criminal case
had been opened against Aliyev and his colleagues V. Koshlak
and A. Bekbayev under Article 125.3 of the Criminal Code
regarding the January 18-19 kidnapping of Nurbank officials
Abilmazhen Gilimov and Zholdas Timraliyev. Ministry
spokesman Bagdat Kozhakhmetov also announced that a separate
case under Article 125.3 had been opened and arrest warrants
had been issued for five other individuals suspected in the
January 31 disappearance of Timraliyev and his associate
Aidar Hasenov. Both men remain missing. Kozhakhmetov stated
that three other individuals were already in custody in
relation to other crimes discovered during the investigation,
including theft and organized criminal activity.


6. (U) Kozhakhmetov announced during the press conference
that President Nazarbayev had personally ordered the
Procurator General and the Minister of Internal Affairs to
carry out the investigation into the Nurbank affair "in the
most careful manner, without regard to profession or
position."


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And Allows Gilimov to Make Public His Allegations
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7. (SBU) Gilimov's brother Samat Gilimov held a press
conference in Almaty on May 23 to make public additional
allegations against Rakhat Aliyev. He read from a two-page
statement written by Abilmazhen Gilimov to the Medeo District
Court judge hearing the case against him. (Note: Gilimov
was arrested on February 14 by the Almaty Financial Police on
charges of illegal entrepreneurship, abuse of power, and
inciting a conflict between Almaty police and bank security.
He is being detained during the trial. Many officers of the
Financial Police are believed to be loyal to Aliyev, who
headed the organization from 1997 to 1999. End note.)


8. (U) In the statement, which has been posted at
www.kub.kz., Gilimov claimed that he and Timraliyev were
abducted by "Rakhat Aliyev and his people" on January 18-19.
Gilimov claimed that Aliyev told the two men that they needed
to go with him to Kiev on business, but instead took them to
a building in Almaty where he handcuffed them, threatened
them with a gun, and demanded shares of the businesses of all
of their friends and family members who had received loans
from Nurbank. Aliyev wanted the owner of the Ken Dala
business center in Almaty, where Nurbank is headquartered and
who had received a $22 million loan from the bank, to
transfer the property to him at no cost. Gilimov said that
Timraliyev called the owner, Bolat Abdullayev, to convey the
request.


9. (U) According to the statement, Gilimov managed to borrow
a cell phone and call his wife to ask her to alert the
authorities if he did not return home within an hour. After
he told Aliyev that the police were on the way, Aliyev then
agreed to pay $34 million for the Ken Dala building, and
"promised not to harass us further if we remain silent."
Aliyev then released Gilimov and Timraliyev, only to fire
them from Nurbank on January 22 and again demand title to the
Ken Dala building for free. At that point, Gilimov signed a
resignation letter and documents transferring his 8% share in
Nurbank to Aliyev's family. Gilimov stated that he last
heard from Timraliyev on January 31 when his former colleague
called him to say that he had been summoned to Nurbank on
business.


10. (SBU) The same evening as the press conference, Astana
TV (owned by the "other" presidential son-in-law Timur
Kulibayev) aired a ninety-minute tape of Gilimov detailing
his allegations against Aliyev. Gilimov did not say what day
he made the recording, but it was apparently made while he
was in detention. AlmaTV, owned by Aliyev and Nazarbayeva,
began to broadcast the tape but quickly interrupted the
transmission.

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Foreign Minister to Ambassador
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11. (C) Foreign Minister Tazhin summoned the Ambassador for
an urgent meeting on May 24 to warn that Aliyev would hold a
press conference that day in Vienna, where he was expected to
"sling a lot of mud" at the Kazakhstani government and the
reform process. Tazhin asked that the U.S. be restrained in
its reaction to Aliyev's comments. He described President
Nazarbayev's decision to publicly order the law enforcement
authorities to investigate the case thoroughly and
objectively as a clear sign of the importance Nazarbayev
attaches to reforming the system and rooting out corruption.


12. (C) Tazhin informed the Ambassador that Aliyev could not
be stripped of his ambassadorial position until President
Nazarbayev had made such a decision - which he (Tazhin)
expected shortly. In the meantime, he felt himself in an
awkward situation with an ambassador in Vienna who was
publicly criticizing the President and now under criminal
charges. Tazhin noted that while the President had been
dealing with this behind the scenes, he had been actively
engaged with the UNESCAP ministerial session in Almaty on May

21. Tazhin, who was seated with Nazarbayev at the head table
with a gaggle of UN Under Secretaries General, said it was
remarkable that the President displayed no signs of strain -
actively participating in the conversation and engaging in
extensive repartee with the other guests at his table. The
Ambassador, who was also present at the dinner, found

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Nazarbayev to be in an excellent mood as well.

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Comment: Three Strikes and He's Out
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13. (C) This is (at least) the third time that Aliyev's
outrageous behavior has driven Nazarbayev to take drastic
action. In 2001 Aliyev was sent to "honorable exile" in
Vienna for the first time after allegedly plotting to seize
power. Following Aliyev and Nazarbayeva's intense criticism
of the government in the wake of the February 2006 murder of
opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly, Aliyev was stripped
of his post as Deputy Foreign Minister and sent back to
Vienna, and Nazarbayeva's Asar party was folded into Otan.
Given Aliyev's increasingly irrational behavior and his
unprecedented public airing of grievances, which has shocked
all levels of Kazakhstani society, this may well be the end
of his public life in Kazakhstan. Tazhin noted to the
Ambassador that the public will be overwhelmingly with the
President on this issue; we agree with his prediction.
Moreover, even if Nazarbayev made this move only under
extreme provocation, it will cast a serious, and perhaps
long-lasting, chill on the actions of other relatives and
associates who have long behaved with complete impunity in
business and their personal lives. When combined with the
lifting of term limits, Nazarbayev's public rebuke of Aliyev
should eliminate for the foreseeable future the unseemly
maneuvering among the family and other elites to position
themselves for a succession struggle.
ORDWAY