KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV TO ANNOUNCE CONSTITUTIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 001304

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (M. O'MARA)

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV TO ANNOUNCE CONSTITUTIONAL
REFORMS

REF: A. Astana 515, B. USOSCE 195

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1. (SBU) Summary: President Nazarbayev will present a package of
proposed constitutional amendments to a joint session of parliament
on May 16. The draft amendments would transfer certain presidential
powers to the parliament, change the method of electing the
parliament, change the role of parties in the legislative process
and formation of the Government, increase the role of local
self-government, and better guarantee respect for human rights. The
specifics of how each of these changes will be carried out are not
yet known, however, as the working group which developed most of
them worked in relative secrecy and the draft has not yet been
distributed. The parliamentary approval process could move quite
quickly, with one Mazhilis member predicting a final vote as early
as Friday. End summary.

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Nazarbayev to Present Legislation May 16
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2. (U) On May 14, President Nazarbayev announced that he would
present a package of proposed constitutional amendments to a joint
session of parliament on May 16. Speaking during the final meeting
of the working group that has been drafting political reform
legislation (Ref A),Nazarbayev said that "most of the suggestions
offered by [the working group members] have been taken into
account." He said that the draft legislation will cover five areas
where "we have tried to make serious changes":

-- Redistribution of presidential authorities to the Parliament, and
the method of electing Parliament;

-- the role of political parties;

-- increasing the role of local self-government;

-- further development of the law enforcement system; and

-- the development of guarantees of human rights and freedoms.

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Rogov Details Proposed Changes
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3. (U) Working group chairman Igor Rogov, chairman of the
Constitutional Council, provided additional details during the
meeting. According to Rogov, the authority of parliament "will be
broadened to such a degree that we can speak of a shift from the
presidential form of government to a presidential-parliamentary
system." He also said that the role of political factions in the
legislative process and the formation of the Government will be
broadened, and that the number of seats in both the Mazhilis and
Senate will be increased. Rogov said that President Nazarbayev will
announce the numbers when he presents the legislation.


4. (U) Rogov added that the legislation contains provisions that
will increase the role of public associations, impact individual
rights and freedoms, and simplify the way courts are formed in order
to guarantee the independence of the judicial system. He explained
that changes to the law enforcement system will involve regulations
of the activities of the procuracy and investigative bodies.
"Overall," Rogov concluded, "the amendments will allow us to
democratize our state and society to a higher degree, and to ensure
more reliable protection of constitutional rights and freedoms of
the person and citizen."


5. (SBU) Almost nothing is known of the substance of the
legislation. As reported in Ref B, Rogov's working group operated
in a very closed manner with no outside input.

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Timeline
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6. (U) During the working group meeting, it was not made clear
whether the May 16 joint session of parliament will vote on the
draft legislation, or merely begin the process of reviewing it.
Article 53 of the Kazakhstani Constitution specifies that the
president must propose constitutional amendments to a joint session
of parliament. According to parliamentary regulations, passage of
such legislation requires the support of a simple majority from both
chambers on the first reading, and a three-fourths vote in favor on
the second/final reading.


7. (SBU) Past practice shows that President Nazarbayev often favors

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quick votes on major initiatives such as this. After sequestering a
group of legal experts in a mountain resort to draft a new
constitution in 1995, Nazarbayev submitted it to a referendum after
only a month of public discussion. Likewise, the Extremism Law and
National Security Amendments were each passed in one day in 2005.
Ak Zhol parliamentarian Alikhan Baymenov predicted to Pol-Econ Chief
on May 15 that the parliament could get through both readings as
early as Friday, May 18. (Note: Only a simple majority is needed
to end debate and move to a vote.)


8. (U) The presidential website (www.akorda.kz) immediately posted
the text of President Nazarbayev and Rogov's statements in Russian,
Kazakh, and English, as a first step in what will presumably be an
effort to publicize the reform effort widely.

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Initial Reaction
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9. (SBU) There has been little public reaction so far, in part due
to lack of concrete information regarding the changes. Baymenov
confirmed that the text of the proposed changes had not yet been
distributed to members of parliament as of 18:00 May 15. (Note:
Interfax reported that President Nazarbayev met with Nur Otan
members in a closed session late on May 15 to acquaint them with the
draft. He reportedly told his fellow party members that 80% of the
changes were based on Democratization Commission recommendations,
and 20% were steps that went further. End note.)


10. (SBU) Baymenov, who participated actively in the Democratization
Commission, predicted that the amendments would make all seats in
the Mazhilis elected by party list. Logically, he said, the change
would result in early elections this summer or fall; a wider range
of parties might be elected. He thought that the additional seats
in both chambers would be appointed by the president from the
Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan. The big question for him is
whether the provisions regarding local self-government will
recognize akims (local executive leaders) and maslikhats (local
legislative bodies) as organs of local self-government rather than
of the central government, thereby correcting a contradiction in the
present Constitution.

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Comment: Devil is in the Details
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11. (SBU) While it appears at first glance that these are serious
and positive steps toward democratization, the impact of President
Nazarbayev's proposed reforms will depend on the exact nature of the
changes, which will only be known after President Nazarbayev
addresses the joint session of parliament on Wednesday. The
Ambassador has been invited and will attend.

ORDWAY