MEETING WITH THE SOMAIL EX-MPS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000892

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2017
TAGS: PREL KPKO UNSC ER ET SO
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH THE SOMAIL EX-MPS: WHAT NEXT FOR THE
ARS?


ASMARA 00000892 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Following the resignation of Prime Minister Gedi,
Poloff met on November 6 with members of the Alliance for the
Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS),ex-Parliamentarian Yusuf
Hassan Ibrahim and Mohammed Sheikh, assistant to former
Speaker of Parliament Sheik Aden. Yusuf, charged with the
responsibility of formulating a foreign affairs strategy, was
encouraged by Gedi's resignation, however, feared that as
long as President Abdallah Yusuf remains in power, Ethiopian
troops will continue to occupy Somalia. "If this issue is
not solved," he said, "then nothing will change." He
commented that if President Yusuf would separate himself from
the Ethiopians and if the Ethiopians declared their plans to
withdraw, then the ARS would consider discussion with the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Poloff asked about
rumors alleging that the ARS had established its own militia
and insurgents were fighting in the name of ARS within
Somalia. Yusuf denied the rumor, stating that the MPS have
no military force, however, provided the caveat that the
Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) may have a military arm. He
said the ARS' foreign affairs strategy was to initially focus
on the Arab states (such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and
Libya),but to also continue efforts to reach out to the U.S.
and European countries. (Note: Confirming Yusuf's comments,
Egyptian Deputy Chief of Mission Hosam Abdallah Nour El-din
told Poloff separately that the ARS has been meeting with the
Arab missions represented in Asmara. End Note.) Yusuf
denied claims that ARS is building alliances with the Ogaden
National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberation
Front (OLF),explaining that as they are liberation
movements, the ARS does not see its objectives as compatible
with these groups. Yusuf sees greater benefit in ARS
engagement with the international community. He said the ARS
wants the international community to assist in bringing
together the two primary stakeholders in Somalia ) the TFG
and the ARS.


2. (C) In a subsequent on November 20th meeting with Poloff,
ex-Parliamentarian Jama Ali Jama repeated Yusuf's request for
international community assistance in brokering mediation
between the TFG and ARS. He explicitly requested that the
U.S. play this role, explaining that since the U.S. supported
Ethiopia's incursion into Somalia, the U.S. should play a
role in ensuring Ethiopia's withdrawal. Jama also requested
U.S. support in establishing a UN Peacekeeping force for
Somalia, as the entrance of such a force would allow the
Ethiopians an honorable out. He noted that Indonesia,
Malaysia and Bangladesh had all expressed interest in
providing troops to a UN Peacekeeping force. With their
majority Muslim populations, these countries could be
acceptable peacekeepers for the Somali population. When
pressed by Poloff on the relationship between the ex-MPs and
the CIC, Jama said that only a few individuals in the CIC
were problematic for the Alliance but that the majority of
CIC members were moderate and willing to engage in a
reconciliation process.


3. (C) Comment: Since the closing of the September
conference that formed the ARS, the group has been remarkably
quiet, making no public statements about plans for the
future. Most ARS representatives departed Asmara before Eid
al Fitr on October 17, many of them planning to conduct
outreach activities with diaspora communities. With only a
few ARS members remaining in Asmara during the last month (to
include Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, the ARS Chairperson and head of
the CIC),the post-conference efforts of the ARS to organize
itself into a political structure appear to have slowed. The
Egyptians, who are showing increased interest in the
Alliance, recently met with CIC members. The Egyptians have
also seen no significant progress since the conference. The
recent return of key ARS representatives to Asmara, including

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former Speaker Sheikh Aden, could reinvigorate the process
although from Poloff's discussions with the ex-MPs, the ARS
leadership seems uncertain about its next steps. While the
ex-MPs seem aware that the group's viability and
international credibility will dissipate if they continue to
quietly hole up in Asmara, they either do not want to share
their future plans with us ) or, at present, have no future
plans to share. End Comment.
MCINTYRE